Irish Form – The Place To Look For The Grand National Winner?
January 3rd, 2008Six out of the last ten Grand National winners have been trained in Ireland but yet most punters knowledge of Irish form is sketchy to say the least – so perhaps it is time to delve deeper into the background required of the raiders from across the sea?
What, if anything, do the recent Irish winners of the Grand National have in common?
Recent Irish Winners
2007 Silver Birch
2006 Numbersixvalverde
2005 Hedgehunter
2003 Monty’s Pass
2000 Papillon
1999 Bobbyjo
Analysing the form of the Irish winners of the National shows that most had the following criteria:
All were 9 or 10 years old
5 out of 6 had previously won a top class handicap chase (the other finished a close second in an Irish National)
They had all only UR or Fell once at most in the whole of their career up to their victory at Aintree
5 out of 6 were rated between 135 and 143 at Xmas before their Aintree victory
This should really help us narrow down where to look for an idea of the Irish raider to follow for 2008.
Of particular interest to me is that all the Irish winners of our Grand Nationals had already shown top quality form in handicaps, with two winning Irish Nationals (and another who was a close 2nd), a Welsh National winner, a Kerry National winner and the winner of the prestigious Thyestes Chase.
Tony Martin’s Royal County Star meets all the above criteria for the 2008 National in that he was the impressive winner of the £44k Troytown Chase at Navan in November, is nine years old, has only fallen once in his career and is rated 136 by the Irish Turf Club at the time of writing. Slight concern is given due to the fact that he has never raced at further than three miles but his style of running suggests he will have the stamina for a race such as this and he looks very interesting at 25/1 with Better .
Also worth considering is last year’s strong Irish fancy, Point Barrow. He meets most of the consideration criteria, although last year’s fall at the first fence in the National takes him up to a total of two career falls. However, horses who have fallen in the National can go on and win in later attempts as Red Marauder, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch have all proved. In all other areas Point Barrow looks the perfect Irish raider and with another light campaign this season he may be more favourably handicapped come Aintree in April. He is 25/1 with Bet365.
