Comments on: How To Narrow Down The GN Field http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/ The Story of the 2008 Grand National Fri, 29 Aug 2008 03:06:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Showlad http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-878 Showlad Tue, 15 Apr 2008 08:09:12 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-878 Just back from hols. Thanks to all esp Wacky and Systems Man :) I had a hunch that Butlers and Point would kick back into form and their exp over classy 4m + races (irish national etc) would see them prevail, so in my top 4 guess I didn't put comply, however, paid my respect to stats and had a large wad on comply (and d'argent) so thanks!! Now guys Scottish national is a puzzle - but DON'T GIVE UP SYSTEMS MAN,WACKY AND ALL - HELP US OUT WITH UR BEST ESTIMATE - PLS!!!! Just back from hols. Thanks to all esp Wacky and Systems Man :) I had a hunch that Butlers and Point would kick back into form and their exp over classy 4m + races (irish national etc) would see them prevail, so in my top 4 guess I didn’t put comply, however, paid my respect to stats and had a large wad on comply (and d’argent) so thanks!!
Now guys Scottish national is a puzzle - but DON’T GIVE UP SYSTEMS MAN,WACKY AND ALL - HELP US OUT WITH UR BEST ESTIMATE - PLS!!!!

]]> By: Systems Man http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-849 Systems Man Wed, 09 Apr 2008 13:27:39 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-849 Thaimark I make Miko De Beauchene 19 points from 27 so not such a good bet. Negatives: OR 153 (OR 132 to 148 9/10 trend, OR 124 to 148 10/10 trend) RPR rating best 161 - a bit high (RPR 134min to 157 9/10 trend, 134 to 163 10/10) 10.10 - a bit high for recent winners(9.06 to 10.06 5/6 trend [2004 11.12 odd one out], 9.09 to 11.12 10/10) Thaimark
I make Miko De Beauchene 19 points from 27 so not such a good bet.
Negatives:
OR 153 (OR 132 to 148 9/10 trend, OR 124 to 148 10/10 trend)
RPR rating best 161 - a bit high (RPR 134min to 157 9/10 trend, 134 to 163 10/10)
10.10 - a bit high for recent winners(9.06 to 10.06 5/6 trend [2004 11.12 odd one out], 9.09 to 11.12 10/10)

]]> By: Systems Man http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-848 Systems Man Wed, 09 Apr 2008 12:32:39 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-848 Based on current weights (WARNING: they may change!!) so far these runners look good (note: there are still many i have not checked so will post an update soon: WARNING: Some of these may not run so you might want to wait till next week or you could lose your money Maximum trend Points 27 Himalayan Trail 27! (Midlands winner - easy win: WARNING Trainer stated it will not run if ground in HY or too soft!) Old benny Old Benny 24 (only one chase wins 2 or more Chase wins 10/10 trend. Age 7 - only one winner in last 10 years) King Harold would also look good if his weight was above his current 9.07 (wiiners weight 9.09 to 10.06 5/6 trend, 9.09 to 11.12 10/1 trend) A lot more work to do yet. So its Hilamlayan Trail advised so far (sorry Brody) if it runs and if his weight does not rise - its the risk you take for an early price. Based on current weights (WARNING: they may change!!) so far these runners look good (note: there are still many i have not checked so will post an update soon:
WARNING: Some of these may not run so you might want to wait till next week or you could lose your money

Maximum trend Points 27

Himalayan Trail 27! (Midlands winner - easy win: WARNING Trainer stated it will not run if ground in HY or too soft!)
Old benny

Old Benny 24 (only one chase wins 2 or more Chase wins 10/10 trend. Age 7 - only one winner in last 10 years)

King Harold would also look good if his weight was above his current 9.07 (wiiners weight 9.09 to 10.06 5/6 trend, 9.09 to 11.12 10/1 trend)

A lot more work to do yet.
So its Hilamlayan Trail advised so far (sorry Brody) if it runs and if his weight does not rise - its the risk you take for an early price.

]]> By: Thaimark http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-847 Thaimark Wed, 09 Apr 2008 03:23:53 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-847 When I checked trends for the Scottish National against the field I was left mith 3: Mico De B Himalayan Trial Old Benny The OLBG goes for Old Benny and he is proven over this distance but 7 year olds have a very poor record in this race. Whatsmore, at the weights, Mico holds Old Benny (if 1lb for 1 length holds true) to the tune of 6 lengths (form line through Over The Creek and Halcon). Himalayan Trail did blitz it's rivals in the Midland National but before that miracle it's form was just appalling. No consistency and the weights rise would probably rule him out. Mico De B fits all trends, has no negatives and may well be System Mans hourse. But if Halcon is pulled out Miko's weight rise will leave him exposed. For now, it's a waiting game. When I checked trends for the Scottish National against the field I was left mith 3:

Mico De B
Himalayan Trial
Old Benny

The OLBG goes for Old Benny and he is proven over this distance but 7 year olds have
a very poor record in this race. Whatsmore, at the weights, Mico holds Old Benny (if
1lb for 1 length holds true) to the tune of 6 lengths (form line through Over The Creek
and Halcon).

Himalayan Trail did blitz it’s rivals in the Midland National but before that miracle it’s
form was just appalling. No consistency and the weights rise would probably rule him out.

Mico De B fits all trends, has no negatives and may well be System Mans hourse. But if
Halcon is pulled out Miko’s weight rise will leave him exposed.

For now, it’s a waiting game.

]]> By: Brody http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-843 Brody Tue, 08 Apr 2008 09:01:35 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-843 Systems: How are you framing the weights for the Scottish national? Are you assuming Halcon will run or not? For me his running or not is one of the key factors of the race atm for framing the handicap if he doesn't run I can see all dropping out below him down to Ornais / Miko which would result in a huge pull in the weights putting Noir and others back into the trends weight range. King will most likely decide based on the ground he needs at least soft really. Had a quick look through the card last night striking out anything that ran at Aintree. First one that struck me if HG stays in is Old Benny, really starts to look a superb pick ran a cracker at Cheltenham over this distance and that race tends to have a good record for the Scottish National as well. Wouldn't be quite as confident if he had to take a huge pull in weight from HG dropping out though would also mean the ground might be a bit quick for him. Think he will compliment my other pick N.E.V. Quite well as one of them should get their preferred ground. From just checking RP for 5 mins a trend for you Ferdy Murphy 3 wins from the last 10 runnings!!! any runner he sends has to be respected imo the guy clearly targets this race. So on that basis Leading Man has to be at least considered a chance EW at 25/1. Himalayan Trail comes here in good form, but not for me with the 17pd rise in weight for winning a very average looking midlands national would have to find a lot more improvement for me. Wild Cane Ridge would probably appeal to D'Argent/breeding backers as he's by Roselier, he likes Ayr as well with a good record there, not for me though hasn't enough form in big fields or higher class company. Others still on the shortlist that I need to have a further look at are: Lothian Falcon, looks a interesting plot up horse and has to be considered. King Harald, Petit Lord know systems will hate him but Nicholls Walsh on a Saturday always has potential for back to lay bets :D So for me going to add 2pts E/W Old Benny @ 12/1 to my 1pt E/W Noir Et Vert. Interested to see the 33/33 trends horse that Systems Man highlights when he posts it up and might well take a couple of pts on that as well, will be happy enough to have that trio as three against the field :D Systems: How are you framing the weights for the Scottish national? Are you assuming Halcon will run or not? For me his running or not is one of the key factors of the race atm for framing the handicap if he doesn’t run I can see all dropping out below him down to Ornais / Miko which would result in a huge pull in the weights putting Noir and others back into the trends weight range. King will most likely decide based on the ground he needs at least soft really.

Had a quick look through the card last night striking out anything that ran at Aintree.

First one that struck me if HG stays in is Old Benny, really starts to look a superb pick ran a cracker at Cheltenham over this distance and that race tends to have a good record for the Scottish National as well. Wouldn’t be quite as confident if he had to take a huge pull in weight from HG dropping out though would also mean the ground might be a bit quick for him. Think he will compliment my other pick N.E.V. Quite well as one of them should get their preferred ground.

From just checking RP for 5 mins a trend for you Ferdy Murphy 3 wins from the last 10 runnings!!! any runner he sends has to be respected imo the guy clearly targets this race. So on that basis Leading Man has to be at least considered a chance EW at 25/1.

Himalayan Trail comes here in good form, but not for me with the 17pd rise in weight for winning a very average looking midlands national would have to find a lot more improvement for me.

Wild Cane Ridge would probably appeal to D’Argent/breeding backers as he’s by Roselier, he likes Ayr as well with a good record there, not for me though hasn’t enough form in big fields or higher class company.

Others still on the shortlist that I need to have a further look at are: Lothian Falcon, looks a interesting plot up horse and has to be considered. King Harald, Petit Lord know systems will hate him but Nicholls Walsh on a Saturday always has potential for back to lay bets :D

So for me going to add 2pts E/W Old Benny @ 12/1 to my 1pt E/W Noir Et Vert.

Interested to see the 33/33 trends horse that Systems Man highlights when he posts it up and might well take a couple of pts on that as well, will be happy enough to have that trio as three against the field :D

]]> By: kj http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-842 kj Mon, 07 Apr 2008 22:01:55 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-842 My friends can't believe they never back me to get the winner now having the ridiculous record of 8 out of last 9 nationals! Its because I use spooky tactics as well as being able to spot a grand nat horse. Sure, I saw Complys convincing previous race and record, hard proof of form,stamina and class but when he became no.33 with Timmy being 33 too, well... see my previous entries on this blog where, I discuss 3 as the magic number of recent years which meant last year I should have backed Silver Birch as it was 33-1 for ages, was no.30 along with seeing it run cross country race before [form, physical analysis] not only that I was sensing the letter S and B. Ignored my senses as happens with age, ruining my 100% record! Also spoke on this blog about my feelings for the letter K / C and then maybe a B,for this years but definately getting some strong sounding types [ie.'k'/'c' not 'ch' or 'se']and two words sentimentality affects my GN betting clouding my view but hey Comply was my first and biggest bet before self doubt crept in then I got stuck into D'Argent whose vibes went off for me in last week, but he ran a great race and rewarded our faith in him, that his trainer, connections didn't have. I really enjoyed the stats people here, looking at important trends so interesting discussions got a bit tail chasing at the end and amplyfied all those feelings nearer the race confused my radar in the end. But,cool I already was on it and you guys backed me up, unknowingly. few dare to think true 'wacky' methods can predict the future. Will come back next year with my mystic ball to sure up this whole thing!!! (will try scottish too but no record history here) My friends can’t believe they never back me to get the winner
now having the ridiculous record of 8 out of last 9 nationals!
Its because I use spooky tactics as well as being able to spot a grand nat horse.
Sure, I saw Complys convincing previous race and record, hard proof of form,stamina and class
but when he became no.33 with Timmy being 33 too, well…
see my previous entries on this blog where,
I discuss 3 as the magic number of recent years
which meant last year I should have backed Silver Birch as it was 33-1 for ages, was no.30
along with seeing it run cross country race before [form, physical analysis]
not only that I was sensing the letter S and B.
Ignored my senses as happens with age, ruining my 100% record!
Also spoke on this blog about my feelings for the letter K / C and then maybe a B,for this years
but definately getting some strong sounding types [ie.’k'/’c’ not ‘ch’ or ’se’]and two words
sentimentality affects my GN betting clouding my view
but hey Comply was my first and biggest bet before self doubt crept in
then I got stuck into D’Argent whose vibes went off for me in last week, but he ran
a great race and rewarded our faith in him, that his trainer, connections didn’t have.
I really enjoyed the stats people here, looking at important trends so interesting
discussions got a bit tail chasing at the end and amplyfied all those feelings nearer the race
confused my radar in the end. But,cool I already was on it and you guys backed me up, unknowingly.
few dare to think true ‘wacky’ methods can predict the future.
Will come back next year with my mystic ball to sure up this whole thing!!!
(will try scottish too but no record history here)

]]> By: Systems Man http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-840 Systems Man Mon, 07 Apr 2008 19:30:15 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-840 Brody "Noir Et Vert is not a god bet to win (EW?)". The EW? meant its possible as a 2nd/3rd/4th place but I'am only trying to find the winner which is what the trends are all about. The biggest danger with the Scottish National is that many on the list may not run so its probably best to wait unlesss you want a bigger price with the bigger risk involved (which is the way I will play it on my best two selections). I am sure we can get down to a manageable short list by wed next week, the race being on Sat 19th. Brody “Noir Et Vert is not a god bet to win (EW?)”. The EW? meant its possible as a 2nd/3rd/4th place but I’am only trying to find the winner which is what the trends are all about.
The biggest danger with the Scottish National is that many on the list may not run so its probably best to wait unlesss you want a bigger price with the bigger risk involved (which is the way I will play it on my best two selections).

I am sure we can get down to a manageable short list by wed next week, the race being on Sat 19th.

]]> By: Brody http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-837 Brody Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:54:12 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-837 SM: EW = Each Way. I never bet on the nose in big field handicaps. If I have time will try running some of the fancied entries through your trends and see if anything stands out won't bet again till nearer the time though too risky on NR's at the moment. Reasons I'm positive on Noir are mainly because Ferdy Murphy got the 1, 2 last year so think this horse might be jobbed up to win this one. Kim Muir wasn't run on favourable ground but should come on well for the run, obviously has to overcome the historical trends but it wouldn't be the first (nobody told Master Minded he wasn't supposed to win the QMCC) still hopeful of a decent run and place! Crisp: You obviously know your national history better than me, I probably should have said that the trends I use for shortlisting only go back 15 odd years. Now you mention it I seem to remember Francome mentioning Rag Trade on C4 before I don't think he was very impressed when it bolted up the following year! I think Chelsea Harbour kind of encapsulates my attitude to trends being a good guide to narrow a huge field but to not blindly follow them. If I did that the trends I follow would knock CH straight out of the reckoning for 09. Instead he'll go on my 'to watch list' as I can see past the poor finishing position and see a horse that is progressive and improving, was given a quite poor ride by the jockey (admitted as much afterwards) and was over campaigned and not probably aimed at the race by connections. SM: EW = Each Way. I never bet on the nose in big field handicaps.

If I have time will try running some of the fancied entries through your trends and see if anything stands out won’t bet again till nearer the time though too risky on NR’s at the moment.

Reasons I’m positive on Noir are mainly because Ferdy Murphy got the 1, 2 last year so think this horse might be jobbed up to win this one. Kim Muir wasn’t run on favourable ground but should come on well for the run, obviously has to overcome the historical trends but it wouldn’t be the first (nobody told Master Minded he wasn’t supposed to win the QMCC) still hopeful of a decent run and place!

Crisp: You obviously know your national history better than me, I probably should have said that the trends I use for shortlisting only go back 15 odd years. Now you mention it I seem to remember Francome mentioning Rag Trade on C4 before I don’t think he was very impressed when it bolted up the following year! I think Chelsea Harbour kind of encapsulates my attitude to trends being a good guide to narrow a huge field but to not blindly follow them. If I did that the trends I follow would knock CH straight out of the reckoning for 09. Instead he’ll go on my ‘to watch list’ as I can see past the poor finishing position and see a horse that is progressive and improving, was given a quite poor ride by the jockey (admitted as much afterwards) and was over campaigned and not probably aimed at the race by connections.

]]> By: Systems Man http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-836 Systems Man Mon, 07 Apr 2008 14:21:04 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-836 Brody: "I’ve a small 1pt ante-post bet on Noir Et Vert E/W, haven’t done any trends for the race: Noir Et Vert is not a god bet to win (EW?) Reasons: Weight: 9.01 (9.09 to 11.10 10/10 trend) 2o07 was the lowest wht for ten years at 9.09 Only one prep run this season(3 to 8 10/10 trend) Best prep race position this season 4th (1, 2nd 3rd 9/10, 2007 6th) RPR best 135 (a bit on the low side but still OK just.Best RPR 137-163 9/10, other than 1998 RPR 134) Won C3 Chase (won class 1 o2 two chese [any kind] 9/10 or won or 2nd in Cl 1/2 chase [any kind] 10/10) So you se its not too good a bet to win. I have done a chart with 33 positive points for the winner. Noir Et vert scores 17. I have found a horse that scores all 33 positive points but will not post the name until I have some money on it (look what happened to the price of Comply Or Die)! But will post my selections for all soon when I have completed the work. My desk has a chart with about 200 different figures on it - its like a huge jigsaw puzzle you have to put together (its waht make it all a lot of fun). We also need to wait a little longer to see who the actual runners are (a bet now coud be dangerous if it does not run other than a bet of something intending to run with all the trends). Brody: “I’ve a small 1pt ante-post bet on Noir Et Vert E/W, haven’t done any trends for the race:

Noir Et Vert is not a god bet to win (EW?)
Reasons:
Weight: 9.01 (9.09 to 11.10 10/10 trend) 2o07 was the lowest wht for ten years at 9.09
Only one prep run this season(3 to 8 10/10 trend)
Best prep race position this season 4th (1, 2nd 3rd 9/10, 2007 6th)
RPR best 135 (a bit on the low side but still OK just.Best RPR 137-163 9/10, other than 1998 RPR 134)
Won C3 Chase (won class 1 o2 two chese [any kind] 9/10 or won or 2nd in Cl 1/2 chase [any kind] 10/10)

So you se its not too good a bet to win.
I have done a chart with 33 positive points for the winner. Noir Et vert scores 17. I have found a horse that scores all 33 positive points but will not post the name until I have some money on it (look what happened to the price of Comply Or Die)! But will post my selections for all soon when I have completed the work. My desk has a chart with about 200 different figures on it - its like a huge jigsaw puzzle you have to put together (its waht make it all a lot of fun). We also need to wait a little longer to see who the actual runners are (a bet now coud be dangerous if it does not run other than a bet of something intending to run with all the trends).

]]> By: crisp 73 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-834 crisp 73 Mon, 07 Apr 2008 12:51:03 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/how-to-narrow-down-the-gn-field/#comment-834 Brody- Rag Trade tenth and last 75- Francome rode it and said it was wretched horse and would never get on it again! won it in 76 but did win Welsh National in Feb 76 so obviously in form. I believe Kilmore and Highland Wedding did at as well in the 60's though it's thirty two years since Rag so .... perhaps Chelsea Harbour will oblige next year! Brody- Rag Trade tenth and last 75- Francome rode it and said it was wretched horse and would never get on it again! won it in 76 but did win Welsh National in Feb 76 so obviously in form. I believe Kilmore and Highland Wedding did at as well in the 60’s though it’s thirty two years since Rag so …. perhaps Chelsea Harbour will oblige next year!

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