To me the NUMBER 1 has to be;

1- AGE

No horse aged 6,7,1 or 14 has even PLACED in the GN since 1969. No horse any of these ages have won since 1940.
This makes age the most important stat in my book. It makes sense as you need to have experience to get round
such a tough test, and you need to be at your peak to mix with the best staying chasers around.

2- WEIGHT

If you look at those horses who place in the race, each year they tend to be weighted below 11 stone.
Since Corbiere in 1983, only Hedgehunter has won carrying more than 11 stone.
In the last 10 years, out of 72 RUNNERS carrying MORE than 11 stone, only 25 horses have FINISHED, and
only 7 horses have PLACED in the first 4. A 10% strike rate just for a place is not very good I think!
This relevance of this is obviously because it is hard to give weight to the rest of the field over such
4 and a half miles.

3- A WIN OVER 3 MILES OR MORE

This stat is true since 1970, and makes sense for obvious reasons! Any horse with insufficient stamina cannot
win the Grand National. I have put this one a bit lower due to KJC coming close last year, and of course the fact
you could feasibly have a horse who has never won over 3 miles but has finished 2nd over, say, 4 miles who by doing
so has proved he has the stamina.

4- DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

This one needs to be treated with a bit of caution as the goalposts are always changing. Before Hedgehunter, people said
the last run of a GN winner had to be within 45 days. Now this has become 48 days because of Hedgehunter. Personally I would
say a horse needs to have had his last run within a period of 14-49 days (or 2 -7 weeks) before the national. Do not rule out
a horse with a run 13 or 50,51,52 ish days before though purely on this basis.

5- RPR

Not less than 145 to be safe, although if you want to ignore Red Maurader’s victory as a fluke, then you can say not less than 148.
This won’t rule out many horses each year though I find.

Just doing the above 5 rules will leave you with about 10-14 horses. And it will have found you the winner in each of the last 10
years and beyond!

Hope this helps.

Its based on (at least ten year trends)
1. Pre Christmas GN winnning trends
2. Main winning trends for GN winner
3. Follow the money trends

Best price excludes interent only betting like Betfair from the other 16 bookies remaining.

Those with only one 40/1 quote or less: six against the field and the most likely winner in this group or at worse in the first nine!.

1. Butlers Cabin OR 135 Best RPR 150 Best TS 131 Price 20/1 (Coral)
1. Black Apalachi OR 146 RPR 158 TS 138 Price 20/1 (Coral)
3. Southern Vic OR 143 RPR 159 TS 146 Price 33/1 (WHill)
4. Hear The Echo OR 145 RPR 158 TS 133 Price 16/1 (Coral) See Note
5. Himalayan Trail OR 138 RPR 145 TS 140 Price 40/1 (Lad)
5. Kilbeggan Blade OR 141 RPR 145 TS 124 Price 40/1 (WHill)

Those with more than one 40/1 quote
6. Parsons Legacy OR 146 RPR 153 TS 141 Price 40/1 (WHill)
7. Garde Champetre OR 144 RPR 154 TS 143 Price 40/1 (Lad)
8. Darkness OR 143 RPR 156 TS 133 Price 50/1 (Coral)

Others to consider:
Chelsea Harbour OR 143 – 9th last year!
Simon OR 146 – had his chance!
king Harold OR 135 – price needs to drop from 50/1

Note: I have been toying with Hear The Echo all week. His rating went up from OR 127 in Dec 2007,
to 132 when he won the Irish National in 2008 to OR 145 now – thats 13lbs more weight to carry than the IN?
I’am not a fan but just cant leave him of the list. If he in the Fav or JT Fav (when Denman drops out)for the GN
it has been about 100 years since a consecutive Fav won the GN (ckecked this a few weeks ago but cant remember the date).
Can anyone out there convince me he can win? (I will have a bet on him just to play safe)

Notable Irish trainers include Dermot Weld, John Oxx and Aidan O\’Brien….

Maximum trend Points 27

Himalayan Trail 27! (Midlands winner – easy win: WARNING Trainer stated it will not run if ground in HY or too soft!)
Old benny

Old Benny 24 (only one chase wins 2 or more Chase wins 10/10 trend. Age 7 – only one winner in last 10 years)

King Harold would also look good if his weight was above his current 9.07 (wiiners weight 9.09 to 10.06 5/6 trend, 9.09 to 11.12 10/1 trend)

A lot more work to do yet.
So its Hilamlayan Trail advised so far (sorry Brody) if it runs and if his weight does not rise – its the risk you take for an early price.

Mico De B
Himalayan Trial
Old Benny

The OLBG goes for Old Benny and he is proven over this distance but 7 year olds have
a very poor record in this race. Whatsmore, at the weights, Mico holds Old Benny (if
1lb for 1 length holds true) to the tune of 6 lengths (form line through Over The Creek
and Halcon).

Himalayan Trail did blitz it’s rivals in the Midland National but before that miracle it’s
form was just appalling. No consistency and the weights rise would probably rule him out.

Mico De B fits all trends, has no negatives and may well be System Mans hourse. But if
Halcon is pulled out Miko’s weight rise will leave him exposed.

For now, it’s a waiting game.