How To Narrow Down The GN Field
Thanks to all of you who have contributed to the GN Weights thread and suggested ideas as to how we can cut the runners down.
Now that there are a few of us on the site I thought it would be nice to try and work together to see if we can form a small field from which the 2008 GN Winner should come from.
I’ll kick off with some pretty safe trends and then if we agree on some more we can narrow it down further.
On the main Grand National Guide Trends Page it shows that each of the last ten winners had these stats in common and if you look back further you will see that many more winners had the same common stats.
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
At this stage we dont know the last 40 runners of course but my opinion is that those below 10st 5lb might struggle to get in the race. I certainly wouldnt want to be backing any below 10st 5lb right now anyway… so if we agree then we will call that the cut off point?
Ok the above basic trends narrow down the 150 entries to just 29. NB Ive included a couple on 9 runs as they are due to have prep runs
So I make the 29…
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,
Have I missed any out which you wouldnt want to exclude?
What next?
Ive heard shouts for experience over the GN fences (but just 6 of last winners 10 meet that criteria)
Exclude all french breds? (are you telling me that L’Ami and Kelami dont stay?)
Several recent winners have won or finished closed in another “national” (is that stat strong enough?)
Any others?
This post has 568 comments
#1
February 11th, 2008 19:48
French breds may get placed, but don’t win. Horses that have not run twice before the weights come out must be left of the short list.Horses placed the year before have a poor record.
#2
February 11th, 2008 22:21
More 10/10 trends
Won class 1 or 2 chase 10/10
Pre race RPR of at last 144 10/10
……..
Also worth taking into account 9/10 trends(but be careful, you may still wish to include a horse that meets all other essential good trends).
Recorded a Topspeed figure of at least 128 9/10
Three to five outings since start of August 9/10
OR rating of 136 to 147 9/10 {the odd one out was OR 128]- now this is a very interesting trend for narrowing down the field so lets allow some allowance and say OR 135 to 149.
#3
February 12th, 2008 03:00
6 out of the last 10 with experience of the fences !,i would say thats a strong trend as long as theyre meeting the other criteria.French breds do not stay ?yes,the last french bred to win the national was lutheur 3rd in 1909.Having run in another national prior to winning at aintree produces some interesting stats,Silver birch,won 2004 welsh.Numbersixvalverde,won 2005 irish.Bindaree,3rd in 2001 welsh.Red marauder,10th in 2000 irish and fell at aintree 2000.Papillon,4th in irish 97,2nd in irish 98,10th in irish 99.Bobbyjo,won irish98.Earth summit,won welsh 97.Royal athlete,fell irish 93.So using the other national,french bred and aintree fences factors i think its safe to reduce the probables even futher,here,s the list,Simon,Butlers cabin,Slim pickings,Chelsea harbour,Bewleys berry,Mckelvey,Point barrow,Sir rembrandt,Cornish rebel,cloudy lane,Cornish sett,Naunton brook,Comply or die,Billyvodan,Philson run,Black apalachi,Homer wells.Thats reduced the list to 17 and its fair to say that a couple of those loook extremely dubious stayers.
#4
February 12th, 2008 12:46
Trevor big mistake to look only at Grand National fences. It would make more sence to look at Grand National and other Nationals in which case you must include one of my top two tips (the other being Point Barrow at this stage): Parsons Legacy (3rd in the Scottish National (21.04.2007)
#5
February 12th, 2008 14:31
When looking at trends I think we need to be careful and make sure that each trend makes clear sense as to why a Grand National winner needs to adhere to it.
Looking at the Racing Posts excellant Trends column in last weeks grand national pull out it mentions things like three to five outings since start of August (9/10) as systems man also identifies above… But is there a sound reason why a horse who has run twice sinc the start of August cant win the grand national. Has a horse which has run 6 times got no hope at all..
Another one racing post trends had was yet to win that season (8/10) – so why should we avoid horses that have won in the season?
French Breds makes sound sense.
Another national run makes sense to me as if their trainer thinks the horse good enough to win THE national then they may well run them in another on route. Or if they run well in another national then they are likely to be aimed at THE national.
Having run over national fences before makes sense also as the fences are so different to others of course. A horse seeing them for the first time could/should be a bit worried and put off. Although 6/10 were having their first GN run so that kind of contradicts it a bit. I guess the stats say that a horse should have experience of fences but if they have run in a GN befoer they might be too highly rated by the handicapper.
All in all I’m pretty happy with those 17 though – as I do agree they are probably the 17 most likely to win at this stage. Just struggling to think of sound ways to cut the list down further.
#6
February 12th, 2008 14:34
Ok systems man,we,ll let that one in,the reason i,de left it out was because of the high volume of winners that had been associated with either the the welsh or irish nationals or had form over the national fences,in fact coupled with the list of stats regarding age,weight,etc,its frightening.Heres another stat,look at how many horses in have fallen in the national and come back to win it another year,silver birch(won 07)fell06,hedgehunter(won 05)fell 04,amberleigh house(won03)fell01,red marauder(won 01)fell 2000.If you read my various posts throughout this blog its fair to say i have,nt got tunnel vision,i,me very open minded so don,t be throwing your toys out of your pram because i did,nt include your horse in the list,i,me just trying to find the strongest trends to try and find the winner.
#7
February 12th, 2008 17:06
Ok so if a horse falls in the national then why is it a good thing to win a future national?
Maybe…
Connections are dissapointed so aim at a future national combined with handicapper not penalising it for having grand national form?
Point Barrow looks strong on those assumptions after falling at 1st last year when very well fancied
#8
February 12th, 2008 18:07
THE WINNER MUST HAVE HAD 4 RUNS THIS SEASON.I’M NOT SURE IF ANYONE HAS MENTIONED THIS,BUT ITS ONLY 3 WEEKS BETWEEN CHELT AND AINTREE SO THINK HORSES WONT RECOVER IN TIME IF THEY GO TO CHELT.ONLY SILVER BIRCH AND BINDEREE HAVE GONE AND WON IN THE LAST TEN YEARS.
#9
February 12th, 2008 19:22
Yes steve,this is the point i,me making about having fallen in a previous national,hedgehunter fell at the last when in contention,its no so much that connections are dissapointed,the horses are gaining valuable experience of these unique fences,in some cases the ones that fell were unlucky,Point barrow does fit into the list of possibles but hardly learnt much about aintree falling at the 1st,where as hedgehunter fell at the last the previous year,amberleigh house was badly hampered and brought down at the 8th,silver birch was in touch until badly hampered and falling at the 15th.When we are using these stats we must decide how significant are they,its true no horse has had less then 4 runs in that season prior to winning the national in the last 20 years,but does that mean anything ?,it proves the well being and fitness of the horse,but go back to 2000 and mely moss,first time out that season it finished 2nd to papillon in the national,only beaten 1 1/4 lths,we,de have to say it does,nt necessarily mean something,its all dependant on the type of horse you have.As regards horses running at cheltenham and winning the national thats more obvious,you will from time to time get an animal that will go there but the majority of national winners will take a more conventional route,we want the horses that fit the strongest stats but also fit in with some of the less obvious ones.ps don,t slate me to much for that mely moss 2nd(french bred)i,me sure one will win it again one day but as far as stats go its strongly suggesting that one won,t.
#10
February 12th, 2008 22:49
IM LOOKING FOR THE WINNER WITH THE STATS THAT WE HAVE A HAND FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.I KNOW THAT HORSES THAT ARE FRENCH BRED,CARRYING OVER 11ST WITH LESS THAN 4 RUNS WILL BE PLACED.BUT THEY WILL NOT EFFECT ME LAYING THESE HORSES NOT TO WIN.
#11
February 13th, 2008 00:54
Someone once told me its all in thr breeding and i must admit when i have the time i do go through it.I was told the class and speed comes from the sires side(normally) and the stamina from the dams side.Silver birch,s dams sire had sired Last of the brownies(5th 1990 grand national,4th 1989 national)and Numbersixvalverdes dams sire had sired kildimo(winner 1992 becher)belmont captain(6th 92 welsh national)barney burnett(2nd 90,4th 89 irish national)Keep talking(winner 4 mile am chase chel 92)Bartres(8th 1990 national),whilst Hedgehunters sire had already produced a national winner in montys pass the previous year,so this is going to require some serious research of the runners in our list.
#12
February 13th, 2008 19:14
I have looked into this in the past for the cheltenham festival.I have a form book that told me the top bred winners over a few years.horse that had won at over 3miles up to the 4 mile races were-Be my native,Supreme leader,Montelimar,Un desperado and Strong gale.But i think you will find the winner without this as all the other stats will help pinpoint the final 4 that we will have to back.My shortlist is only 8.Think that saturday will help us in our quest as well.
#13
February 13th, 2008 20:29
Go on Wacky tell me your short list of 8 and I will give you mine in the next 24hours.
#14
February 13th, 2008 21:11
Sorry systems man i can’t let you know yet as this would help people that can’t be bothered to study stats. I want the biggest prices i can possibly get nearer the race, as there is a important stat that will help us nearer the time.I can tell you that point barrow is a definite for the short list on all stats.plus after saturday it will be half the price that i’ve taken and will be able to lay some of bet of on betfair.
#15
February 13th, 2008 21:13
One of these days wacky might actually agree with me but the likelyhood of that is about the same as a french bred winner.THE POINT THAT WAS BEING MADE WAS THAT IF YOU DON,T COME FROM THE RIGHT FAMILY,IE STAYING CHASE WINNERS(WELSH,IRISH,AINTREE,SCOTTISH NATIONAL OR ANY OTHER LONG DISTANCE WINNERS),YOUR NOT GOING TO WIN THE NATIONAL,DOH(WAS THAT HOMER?).CHRIST SOME PEOPLE ARE HARD WORK,I,ME TRYING TO HELP READERS AND MYSELF,I,ME TRYING TO MAKE RATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS BASED ON FACT,THE ORIGINAL SUGGESTION WAS DOES ANYONE ELSE HAVE ANY IDEAS NOT WHAT IS WACKYS ESTEEMED OPINION!!!
#16
February 13th, 2008 21:24
SYSTEMS MAN,I LIKE WACKYS LAST POST(NOT)SORRY I CAN,T TELL YOU MY LIST(ME)BUT GOES ON TO SAY THERES AN IMPORTANT STAT THAT WILL HELP US(ALL OF YOU,YEH RIGHT)HELP YOURSELF TO ALL THE FREE INFO ON THIS SITE MORE LIKE,BECAUSE YOUR INPUT IS ABOUT AS MUCH USE AS A CHOCALATE FIREGUARD,IME OUTTA HERE
#17
February 13th, 2008 21:27
Trevor Please don’t take what i am saying the wrong way.In your last post you have solved your own question, as the winner of the national will have ran at least 1 good race in a national or another long distance race.How else can they get there RPR and have won a grade 1 chase worth £17,000? Plus if everyone gets our knowledge what will we have to look forward to? I don’t want a 2/1 FAV in the national!!! Do you
#18
February 13th, 2008 22:10
Sorry that you don’t like my input trevor. Im trying to help you and System man without naming my shortlist.I wont send anymore comments.
#19
February 14th, 2008 12:18
Come on guys – lets try and work together here… Im not sure that putting your list up here will effect the price – there dont seem to be that many people around here… but if you dont want to then fine.
But please dont stop posting everyone – I cant find any other decent GN blogs/sites and my list is still 17 long…. Does anyone know any other sites like this one?
#20
February 14th, 2008 13:32
hey lads call a truce i enjoy your comments as i am down to 8 selections as well and it would be a shame if we could’nt compare our choices a bit later . after we all got our bets on.so please keep talking to each other ok? still cant get my head round where this snowy mountain is coming from 6/1 favourite i dont think so? any body got any opinions about mckelveys chances? keep posting your comments..
#21
February 14th, 2008 16:55
I had Point Barrow last year. £50EW at 14/1 and as we all know he came crashing down at the first. I felt like crying. That being said, he has an excellent chance once again and I have had a small wager at 25/1 this time around. He is very much a spring horse and this is probably his last chance to win the famous race and buck the trend of the Irish in recent years. A promising fourth last time out in Ireland, this classy individual ticks all the boxes of a National winner.
Bewley’s Berry at 16/1 has also been an ante-post bet of mine as he has a lovely record over the fences. Bowling along infront when falling at Becher’s last year, he was pinging the fences until that point and a more patient ride this time around could see him settle better and have more stamina for the second circuit. My only concern is the fact he has had one run this season. But you get your money back at 16s if he places so a nice bet all in all.
Those two against the field for now I’d say and reserve judgement until on the day for the rest. I tend to have four in the National and hope for a 1-2-3-4 finish ha! We can dream.
#22
February 14th, 2008 18:32
Im thick skinned so not going to let anyone put me off helping.Last year my final short list was 4 horse which were Point Barrow,Mckelvey,homer wells and silver birch.They all had at least 4 runs,under 11st,non french bred that had won a £17’000 chase over 3mile 2f.Hedgehunter won carrying 11st 1lb, but was allocated 10.12 before the top weight was taken out. so that will be the only way i will back any horse carrying over 11st.
#23
February 14th, 2008 21:48
Hi All,
Fascinated by all the posts. I like horse racing but know very little about to be honest (form etc). I became interested as my mate took me to the Grand National several years ago – its a great day out. We’ve been back every year, so thats probably around 7 years. Unfortunately, my mate,Simon, sadly passed away (aged 36!) last year. I’m still going this year with some of my other mates & I really hope that it is written in the Stars that “Simon” wins. It would be rather fitting to say the least. Has it any chance – it was going well last year from what I remember. I don’t understand weights, so I’ve no idea whether his proposed weight is good or bad. Could anyone comment? I’ll be backing him regardless for obvious reasons.
Thanks.
#24
February 14th, 2008 22:39
HI Brian,Im sorry to read about the passing of your freind SIMON.If you have been reading these posts you will have read that only 1 horse in the last 22yrs has carried over 11st to victory.Simon has been given 11st 4lbs,so a major stat will have to be broken.I will give you a short list of my stat fancys closer to the race.
#25
February 14th, 2008 22:55
Oh well, i’ll still be having a bet on him. (its in the stars I tell you!). Otherwise, I will be backing Bewleys Berry which I backed last year too. Much like Simon that was going well too last year. Obviously I ended up with a nil return (as has been the case since i’ve been going to Aintree!!). As you can probably tell, i go more for the fun of a day out at the races rather than anything too serious, so I guess the serious punters will be thinking i’ve got no right to be on this blog! I look forward to reading more “tips” nearer the time. Thanks
#26
February 14th, 2008 23:08
Brian the more input the better, as for all we know you may have posted the 1st two home in the national. STATS are there to be broken, but i can assure you that up to know this is the biggest stat race in our racing calendar. The DERBY is a very close 2nd and i’ve made good profits on both since finding these stats.good luck
#27
February 14th, 2008 23:38
I’ve got 1 question for you all to sleep on.HAs any horse pulled-up in the national and then gone on to win it? The reason i ask is that Naunton Brook pulled up last year and its form this year looks very promising.If it had fallen last year i would be filling my BOOTS!!!
#28
February 15th, 2008 13:43
Hi guys
At the risk of them all plummeting in the betting to 2/1 LOL here are my four against the field, they’re in order the first two I’m more confident of than the last two. All done E/W at decent odds from 25-33′s. Came to these four by first running thru the normal trends (likely weight, age, RPR etc) Then picked them out according to their previous form and runs I’d watched. I tend to go for horses with previous form on the fences where possible:
1. Point Barrow
Looks a classic national horse and has all the trends in his favour and at 25′s is simply too good value to turn down, if he jumps it clear no way he finishes outside he top 4. Obvious doubt on his fall last year, gambling it was a one off due to over eagerness/bad luck, normally a very sound jumper.
2. Slim Pickings
Laid out for this race again exactly like last year, only race he will be trying in all season. Will be in the frame again if he has a clear round probably not got the toe to win it though.
3. Parson’s Legacy
Silly price currently just far too much value to not be on E/W worth a small punt in anyone’s book.
4. Bewley’s Berry
Was on last year and was looking good till he overjumped a bit at beecher’s. Backed him again after a beautifully run Beecher chase behind Mr P. Stamina is still a serious question mark will the tank empty again? If it doesn’t could well be in the winners circle in april.
My only winner from last year McKelvey nearly made the list but just misses out unless he runs before Aintree due to having no proof of his full recovery some horses never recover from an injury like that. Don’t trust horse trainers as far as I can throw em been burnt like that before.
Finally will be advising all the one race a year £2E/W friends and family to have a cheeky punt on Naunton Brook on the day if he is 50+ cos he’s been very profitable for me this season and you always get a great run for your money from him.
Best of luck all and play nice.
Ian
#29
February 15th, 2008 17:40
Wacky – we think alike – i too do very well on the Derby as the scond best trends race.
I may not have won the GN the last two years but I did get the winner in the Derby both times. Another good trend – as this is strange and outside of horse racing is the ….. Euorovision Song Contest. Won the last two years at a good prce. The reason – well you can look up lots of European Polls on the Net and listen to every tune before the event – its now down to about four choices at most each year to win but the GN is the best all all trend bets at BIG prices – paid for at least a large part of one family cruise in the past and my sons computer for university some years ago and .. well I could go on but with any luck we can all share in the good times this year. I will come back with my short list in the next few days (I am down to 11 after a very quick review).
#30
February 15th, 2008 19:20
Hi System man,Is your short list~Chelsea Harbour,point barrow,sir rembrandt,cornish rebel,d’argent,cloudy lane,naunton brook,parsons legacy,comply or die,black apalachi and homer wells? maybe now trevor will realise that im not trying to pick other peoples brains to find the winner!!!!
#31
February 15th, 2008 20:53
Wacky that is a very good list and probably has the winner in it. But to do justice to everyone I need until Monday evening to finalise my own list.
Will come back when I have time to do a little bit more research that is needed.
#32
February 15th, 2008 22:39
Hi systems man,I wouldn’t worry about cutting the short list down to much as 2mrw has alot of nat fancys running.Plus we must wait to see what happens at cheltenham.The only thing you can do is try and take prices about any horse you fancy or think you can lay at shorter prices on the day.As i’ve said b4 i fancy point barrow at the moment but think i will be able to lay off at alot shorter price.You cant beat a no lose gamble!!
#33
February 16th, 2008 23:14
Hmmm….
Not really sure what to make of today’s trial. Point Barrow looked to be travelling superbly until the last 4 furlongs and then just hit a wall. Bewley’s Berry was never travelling and duely pulled up and Irish Raptor was probably the best of the bunch finishing 6th. The National is a different race though and I’m sure they will be back.
#34
February 16th, 2008 23:49
Lets get one thing straight bewley’s berry won’t be winning the national.I can’t believe how many people rate this horse!! 1 good run over the nat fences i suppose!! Shall be laying this horse big STYLE.
#35
February 17th, 2008 17:32
Wacky said “Lets get one thing straight bewley’s berry won’t be winning the national”
100% correct Wacky (even if I did have a small ‘insurance bet’ pre weights based on his performance last year – having looked at the trends this was a complete waste of money).
Why?
His only chase win was a Class 4 £3k race!
Look at these GN trends (for reducing the list):
9 out of the last ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Handicap Chase prior to wining the National (in 2002 Bindraee won a Nov Chase).
9 out of ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Chase with 13 or more runners competing (7/10 were in Han Chases. two were Nov Chases and again in 2002 Bindaree had only won in a Chase with 8 runners.)
Now Bewleys Berry has not won a Handicap Race or won in a any sort of Chase with 13 or more runners. Dont waste your money – he will not win and is a overhyped horse.
P.S. Did anyone get Bindaree in 2002?
#36
February 17th, 2008 18:21
Hi Systems man,What did you make of the red square vodka hcap at Haydock? I think that D’Argent was the only horse to come out of the race with ant credit.I was very disappointed with Point Barrow and unless the trainer said he has left alot of work to do with P Barrow i think i will have to lay my bet off!I see that Beef or Salmon is doubtful for the race so the weights will go up 2lbs so i think that from Ungaro upwards have to be scrubbed from the shortlist.Snowy Morning will be over 11st so cant see a Novice carrying that weight.Think this is looking like a poor quality national!Does anyone agree?
#37
February 17th, 2008 18:37
I am starting to agree with you two lads.
I also had a small bet pre weights on Bewleys but it’s now looking like money down the drain.
I was gutted about Point Barrow on Saturday. He was pinging the fences and the jockey hadnt moved and then they turned for home and he just went up and down on the spot. Very odd indeed. I just hope he is ripe and ready come April. He is an ideal Aintree horse trend wise. But the form hasn’t been great this season.
I can’t bring myself to think that Cloudy Lane and Snowy Morning will win being only 8 year olds. But the waters have been muddied further this weekend and I’m now not sure what’s gonna win. I was confident in 2005 about Hedgehunter and in 2006 at Numbersixvalverde, both duely obliging.
It will be an interesting race come April 5th.
#38
February 17th, 2008 22:51
Hello Guys , reading ur comments on Grand Nat . i would agree that point barrow would be the number 1 pick trendwise . What a nightmare yesterdsy however . he went from cruise control to full scale distress in a matter of strides . i reckon he needs another prep race before aintree or its game over. I just have a sneaky feeling that Old Royal Auclair if he stands on his feet could sneak in and win this on the blindside with 10-7 on his back . french bred however. bit of a risk
#39
February 18th, 2008 00:45
Dont throw those anti post bets on Point Barrow away yet – he still looks good to me!
Not winning prior to the GN is almost not a problem. Check out the form .
Results from Jan 1st in year of Grand National Win.
Pre win form of the winners for the last ten years.
2007: 2 (the race position prior to winning GN).4.4.2
2006: 3.4.4
2005: 1.6
2004: 5.PU
2003: 4.6
2002: 7.6
2001: F.2
2000: 3.9.4.5
1999: 1.4.4.5
1998: 5.6
So you see not winning is the trend! Pity I missed the race on Saturday but will watch a vdeo replay tomorow. My one concern about Point Barrow is that he has now had six races prior to the GN which is already a new record (all previous winners for the last five years have had only up to five prep races since August (but its only a miner blip)
#40
February 18th, 2008 00:46
It should say:
“all previous winners for the last TEN years have had only up to five prep races since August (but its only a miner blip)
#41
February 18th, 2008 11:43
Lets not push any panic buttons on Point Barrow yet. It’s still 7 weeks till the national! If he came to Haydock bouncing and on top of his form I’d have seen that as a HUGE negative as he’ll be well over cooked come Aintree time. He’s my main bet this year and I saw nothing in that race to dampen my enthusiasm for him or run to betfair and lay off, his jumping was sound he travelled with ease but was unable to respond when they kicked for home off the final bend, I’ve no problem with that they weren’t actually aiming him to win that race and I’d expect him to still be way underdone at this early stage.
I’ve also got a small bet on Bewley’s as well and for me he ran little more than a public schooling session, why run a hold up style race for a horse that loves to front run? I think he hated Haydock but we all know he’s loves the national fences. I think come National day he’ll be bouncing once again and given a clear round with his front running style he won’t be out of the frame. Whilst stats and trends are a good guide and help narrow down a large field, they shouldn’t be doggedly followed with zero regard to your own eyes and judgment on a horses ability.
Did any major bookmaker length the odds on either of these two after Saturday? I don’t think so which tells you what they thought of the trials.
Regarding BoS I’d say he’s more than doubtful I’m 99% sure he’ll go to the Irish national (never run a good race in his life this side of the water anyway) not even sure why they bothered entering him. I think poor Hedgehunter ends up top weight again meaning a hike for everyone on current weights.
Does anyone know if Parson’s Legacy and Slim Pickings (my other two fancies) have any runs planned between now and Aintree? Would be interested to check on their progress.
Regards
Ian
#42
February 18th, 2008 15:03
Does anyone know anything about over the creek?
I done him at 80s on betfair and thought i was doing well but he’s 150s now, does that mean he’s a non-runner?.Also 28s is still available for point barrow on skybet,can’t see that lasting long!
#43
February 18th, 2008 15:13
I am on Parsons Legacy at 33′s (wish I’d got 40′s when it was available), and I know that it won’t be running before the National. I like to think it is being geared towards the race.
I spoke to a friend and he told me it can’t win because it’s form is exposed. He claimed a winner like last year’s (Silver Birch) would not happen again, but I say don’t be so sure.
Parson’s is a National type. It fits many of the trends required, and I think an E/W (although I’ve gone for the win thus far) for anyone could be of interest
#44
February 18th, 2008 18:56
Hi Everyone,Parson’s Legacy is running at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir with top weight.I have been looking for possible horses that could run in the national that would fit the stats and parson’s was on top of my shortlist.But as a follower of stats i’ve had to put a line thru it winning as its not going to have run 4 times.I know you all may think im being fussy? But as long as the stats hold up im sticking with it big STYLE.
#45
February 18th, 2008 22:20
The short list Part 1
Looking at Wacky’s short list of 11, who can win and who cant? (in Part 2 I will review any horse Wacky left out form the origional 18 just to be sure we miss nothing):
Chelsea Harbour,point barrow,sir rembrandt,cornish rebel,d’argent,cloudy lane,naunton brook,parsons legacy,comply or die,black apalachi and homer wells
5 * possibilities – meet almost ALL trends
point barrow
d’argent
parsons legacy
naunton brook
cornish rebel
comply or die
3* possibilities
sir rembrandt – Age 12(getting on a bit). Not won in chase with 12 or more runners.
cloudy lane – won twice this year (maybe peaking to early. Only run in 6 Han chases – is this enough experiance?)
2* possibilies
homer wells RPR 144 (bare min) TS best 119 (needs 128 min)
WONT WIN
Chelsea Harbour – RPR best 141 (needs 144 min)TS best 122 (needs 128 min). Nov last session (does not help)
black apalachi – RPR best 133, TS best 119. Will he stay? (only won over 24F).
#46
February 18th, 2008 22:37
Hmm very interesting systems man . the more i look at it i reckon its a two horse race between point barrow and dargent. did u know that 12 of the last 24 nationals have been won by horses that contested that years hennessy. both these lads were on duty that day as was sir rembrandt . my only nagging doubt on parsons legacy is whether a 3rd in a scottish national is good enough . i dont remember any horse ever being beaten in a scottish national going on to aintree glory. still i reckon hes a top ew bet. i dont think cornish rebel ,naunton brook or comply or die are good enough …think il just keep backing point barrow and dargent right up until the day now and a couple of interesting outsiders
my top 6 – all carrying less than 11 stone
point barrow win
dargent win
parsons legacy ew
royal auclair ew
baron windrush ew
kilbeggan blade ew
#47
February 18th, 2008 23:05
This is getting trickier by the day as there are holes appearing in everyone on our shortlists form.I’ve saved the last 2yrs racing post and im going to turn them out 2mrw as im sure we can get to the bottom of this.I have 2 horses that fit the stats that aren’t spring chickens anymore.Think i may wait til the next cut off as that will get rid of some dead wood!
#48
February 18th, 2008 23:25
System man,Can you tell me please if the RPR of 144 must have been done on the horses last run or at any time that season/career? Think i might have got a very shortlist!!
#49
February 19th, 2008 00:08
Wacky.
To win a horse needs to have gained a RPR figure of 144 or better at anytime of the racing career 10/10 trend.
TS figure of 128 or better at any time – a 9/10 trend
#50
February 19th, 2008 13:12
Wacky – you mention that Parsons Legacy is running at Cheltenham and has top weight. However, if you look at the entries it has on the Racing Post website the only entry is Aintree?
#51
February 19th, 2008 13:19
After Wacky mentioned this I have been looking frantically to find out if Parsons is racing or not.
I have been on attheraces and it claims it’s next race is at Aintree.
Also, after going on the Cheltenham website it doesn’t have any info about the Kim Muir (which it ran last year and came 2nd), or Parsons Legacy running at Cheltenham.
However, Parsons Pistol will be running at Cheltenham.
I’m not calling you a liar wacky, but I can’t find it listed for Cheltenham.
#52
February 19th, 2008 15:37
The onlt thing about Parsons Legacy is that it has only had 2 runs so far this season which slightly breaks the trends.
I was on Point Barrow last season and was gutted when it fell. I did back Silber Birch but on a place only and was even more gutted about that!!
No idea at the moment who to back but rating this blog.
#53
February 19th, 2008 16:01
You and I have a bit in common Dan.
Last year I also backed Point Barrow, and the only solace I can take out of it was that I didn’r watch the race live as I was at Arsenal watching us play Bolton, and found out the result before watching it.
The year before I was going to back Silver Birch, but it got injured before Aintree, and I just left it alone last year.
You’ve got to hate it when you pick a future winner early (makes me fret about Point Barrow for this year’s. Although, the run on Saturday wasn’t pretty).
True, Parsons Legacy has only had a couple of outings, but it has finished reasonably well in many of it’s races, and you have to feel it’s being geared up for this.
I’m happy to be on Parsons @ 33′s though. That’s an interesting bit of value and still available with Will Hill I believe, but it’s come down to 25′s with many bookies.
Come on Dan. Seems it’s fate we’ll be on the same horse
#54
February 19th, 2008 16:04
Yeah Racing Post won’t have the declarations for the Kim Muir yet because it’s a handicap.
Parsons Legacy is intended to run on the 13th March in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Phillip Hobbs is running it ad top-weight in the amateurs race it contested last year when second.
Quote from the Racing Post Newspaper (not online) on February 6th when weights were released:
“I think Parsons Legacy will be my main one. He will run in the Kim Muir under top weight. He had a great spring last year, he was placed in the Scottish Grand National and he is the right age and has the right weight.”
#55
February 19th, 2008 16:31
Im still a bit dubious about some of these trends, but one I would like to throw which hasnt been mentioned yet is the headgear one. Those blinkered or visored shoule be excluded from your lists.
If a horse isnt completely genuine and is easily put off by other horses then what hope has it in a Grand National with horses running all over the place?
Also surely it helps if you can see what you are doing with those fences and be able to avoied the trouble.
In the last 30 years only Earth Summit has won the race with headgear and over 130 have tried and failed. In fact I cant see any others who have come close recently. Earth Summit almost ran a different course to the others as he was so wide so maybe thats why he got away with it.
So who does this rule out this year? We wont know for a while for sure but point barrow looks liklely to wear blinkers, as could Black apalachi, D’argent, baily breeze, comply or die and homer wells.
So some intersting runners there who have wonr blinkers in recent races and would be a worry to me should their trainers decide to fit them wit headgear for the national.
#56
February 19th, 2008 16:31
I can get 33′s still with Paddy Power so might put a bit each way on tonight as it is good value.
Not too sure about Point Barrow after Saturday and now it has raced 6 times this season and Top Speed is only 120. I may have to swerve this one.
Have you any thought on any of the others?
#57
February 19th, 2008 17:42
I’d like to apologise to Wacky for doubting him, and thanks sticky for those quotes.
Not sure how I feel about it running Cheltenham, but I guess the result of the race will have more of a baring on that in the future.
Can’t say I’ve thought about too many others Dan.
What does everyone think of Character Building?
It’s an interesting horse, although only been in 10 jump races, which is something to consider, but has won 3 of them, including one over 3m 2f
Also, it performed well at Cheltenham last year, bar the end of the race, which you can read about in the summaries.
It’s carrying 10-5 and is 8 years old
#58
February 19th, 2008 18:41
I was wandering how long it would be before blinkers were mentioned.I have to admit that i hope the shortlist doesn’t include any horses with headgear.But we must remember that 1 horse has won with blinkers so its not out of the question.The thing is worrying me the most is that horses that look certain to fit the stats are going out in price on betfair every day.Also at the moment there isn’t a horse in the front 15 in the betting that i wouldn’t be happy to lay!That doesn’t seem right.
#59
February 19th, 2008 18:50
Oh dear,Just looked up Paddy Powers prices and they have pushed Point Barrow out to 33/1.I smell a rat and think that all is not well with the horse.They wouldn’t offer prices on a horse from there own emerald isle without a good reason!! Hope im wrong.
#60
February 19th, 2008 20:24
Wacky – are u sure ? – point barrow still trading at 20s from what i can see on pps website
#61
February 19th, 2008 20:44
I looked it up on readabet.com.sorry if its wrong guys.
#62
February 19th, 2008 21:03
You’re both right, they pulled it out to 33-1 from 20-1 trying to take a view, punters have obviously taken them on and they have instantly clipped it straight back in to 20-1 with their tail between their legs haha.
I’d take that as a positive personally.
Regards
Ian
#63
February 19th, 2008 21:35
Wacky is right.
It did go to 33/1 for a brief period but it’s now back to 20/1.
Paddy didn’t wanna risk it for too long ha ha!
#64
February 20th, 2008 18:13
Parsons Legacy is the one, I’m sure. I’ll forgive him for only having the 2 runs. I have picked the national winner in 97,98,99,02,06,07 based on the stats.
My only issue is that for some reason Parsons Legacy is not listed on the racing post betting guide. Not sure why this is (but I’m worried!). Anyway, I’ve backed Parsons at 33/1 and had my max stake of £10! Here’s hoping for a repeat of last yr when Silver Birch did the business…
#65
February 20th, 2008 20:01
Hi System man,I think you have nailed your sails to the mast to soon.Parson’s is running at the festival and will only have 3 weeks to recover from that this year.Also i think you should look back thru your records and let us know when the last winner was that only had 3 runs? But all that aside i think it has the class to be placed.
#66
February 20th, 2008 20:59
Does anyone know if Character Building has been ruled out now? I can’t find it on any bookmakers now, he was down to 20-1 on Coral too?
#67
February 20th, 2008 21:23
Can someone clarify the Top Speed requirements. Is it what they have recorded that season or in the career?
#68
February 20th, 2008 22:46
Character building is 25/1 with only 3 bookmakers and 269/1 on betfair so i would say that its a doubtful runner.As lays go this would have been the easiest lay ever!!!
#69
February 21st, 2008 11:47
Character Building is injured and out till next season.
#70
February 21st, 2008 14:48
Sticky 99 – if you go onto the racing post website and look at cornish rebel and the entries it has the Kim Muir is an intented target. Yet Parsons Legacy does not have an entry for the Kim Muir. I note what you said earlier but check the entries each horse has on their profile?? Does this now mean that Parsons is going straight to Aintree?
#71
February 21st, 2008 14:58
Systems Man – you mention that Black Apalchi has only won over 2m4 but on 27.12.05 it won a 3m race – the Paddy Power Chase??
#72
February 21st, 2008 16:04
Dan -this is what I said
“black apalachi – RPR best 133, TS best 119. Will he stay? (only won over 24F)”.
The RPR and TS are all wrong and he may not stay having won only once at 24F. Current price Cor 50/1, Lad 60/1 (way to high for the right profile).
HE WONT WON!
#73
February 21st, 2008 16:14
According to the Racing Post Website Parsons Legacy is entered for:
11 Mar 2008 4:00 (Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3
13 Mar 2008 4:40 (Five Day) at CHELTENHAM, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
5 Apr 2008 4:15 (Five Day) at AINTREE, John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3
#74
February 21st, 2008 16:23
If you search for Cornish Rebel on RP then look at the entries it has the Kim Muir as one. If you click on the race it then shows the entries of which Parsons Legacy is one of them. If you then click on the horse and then its entries it shows those three as the entries.
If you search for Parsons Legacy straght away it doesn’t show them for a strange reason. But I think he is an intended runner on the 13th ahead of the 11th.
#75
February 21st, 2008 20:11
Thanks Sticky99 – can see that now and must say now put off Parsons Legacy. Horses that run at Cheltenham dont have a great record in the National. The exception Bindaree and Silver Birch
#76
February 21st, 2008 20:16
Beef or Salmon not running in the National – weights will go up – how will this affect everyones choices?
#77
February 22nd, 2008 12:52
So lets have a little review at this tricky stage:
What was the OR and weight of the last ten GN winners? (and you will see why the OR is SO important)
2007 138(OR) 10.06(weight) 33/1 price
2006 138 10.08 11/1
2005 144 11.01 7/1F
2004 139 10.10 16/1
2003 139 10.07 16/1
2002 136 10.04 20/1
2001 140 10.11 33/1
2000 139 10.12 10/1
1999 142 10.00 10/1
1998 147 10.05 7/1
So every GN winner for th last five years has had a OR of 138 to 144 (5/5) and every GN winner for the last 10 years has had a OR of 136 to 147 (10/10, excluding 1998 it would be 136 to 144!).
So how do we find the winner?
Take basic trends (ONE)
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
AND ADD (TWO)
RPR of 144 or above (in any tye of Chase during racing career) – this is a 10/10 trend
TS of 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) – this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
AND ADD (THREE)
exclude any horse who has a OR above 145 = 10.12 (which will go up ow to at last 11.00)
Who does that leave from the origional list 0f 29 who met the basic trend ONE above.
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,
The Shorter list: 29 down to 13
McKelvey
Cloudy Lane
Mon Mome
Cornish Sett
Royal Auclair
Kelami
Point Barrow
Sir Rembrandt
Cornish Rebel
d’Argent
Naunton Brook
Parsons Legacy
Comply or Die
So lets be a bit more risky and exclude any horse who has completed the Grand National but not won and any horse currently priced at 50/1 by either Corals or Ladrookes.
This leaves us with: 7 (in no order) + one possible
Cloudy Lane OR 141
Point Barrow OR 143
d’Argent OR 142
Naunton Brook OR 140
Parsons Legacy OR 140
Comply or Die OR 139
Mon Mome (cant find a Coral’s price, 25/1 with Lad) OR 141
Bewleys Berry OR 144 – can only be included if we accept his 18K C1 G2 Nov Hurd race instead of a Chase
We can review this list nearer the time.
Any better ideas on the winner?
#78
February 22nd, 2008 14:03
You could be even more riskier and exclude any horses running at cheltenham. The last 10 winners only 2 have ran at the festival and gone onto win the big one. This would leave us with;
Point Barrow (doubt as 6 runs this season and too many ’0′ against name)
D’Argent (French but meets all of the trends)
Naunton Brook (
Bewleys Berry
#79
February 22nd, 2008 14:06
…..Naunton Brook (Not won a Class 1 or 2 race)
Bewleys Berry (Only 2 runs so far )
#80
February 22nd, 2008 14:26
So after all that we’ve been left with 0?
You’ve got to laugh.
In truth though, you can find positives and negatives for every horse in the race. I think we should stick to the 7(or
Systems Man has come up with after his extensive research and maybe discuss those.
He’s done all the work for us. Well done mate
#81
February 22nd, 2008 14:58
Why rule out horses that are currently at 50/1 or more.
This time last year i got on Silver birch when it was 100/1 and then after the first non runner declarations it dropped to 50/1.
It wasn’t until after it run at cheltenham that its price dropped down to 28/1 and then drifted back to 33/1 prior to the race starting.
I agree 50/1 or bigger winners rarely win but the trend is for the SP and not Ante post prices.
#82
February 22nd, 2008 15:08
Hi Dan – sorry to be a nitpicker but r u sure dargent is french . he has a french name but im sure he s an irish bred. i surely hope so as ive been lumping on under the assumption hes not a french bred. his biggest drawback is that he is a grey ! last grey to win was nicklaus silver when i was a mere glint in my fathers eye. hoever surely the colur of a horse makes no difference as to whwther it can win the national. i remember suny bay performing miracles round here with nearly twelve stone on his back and only being outpointed by that old mud lover earth summit… can anyone confirm dargents nationality ….! ?? please say he is irish
#83
February 22nd, 2008 16:12
D’Argent is Irish accoding to RP
#84
February 22nd, 2008 16:13
Sorry I wasnt sure just looked at the name! This is what is under its name on the racing post website;
Trainer: A King Owner: Nigel Bunter
Breeder: Navan Stables
Roselier(FR) (16.0f) – Money Galore(IRE) (Monksfield(13.0f))
#85
February 22nd, 2008 16:31
D’Argent is surely the one then!
#86
February 22nd, 2008 17:35
Hi system man,I think your 7 that you narrowed it down will have our national winner.I’ve stepped in on betfair and i’ve backed D’ARGENT at 94/1.I’ve just sent a text to a mate who knows someone that has a horse with alan king,asking him to tell them to leave the BLINKERS OFF on the 5th april.Will let you know if i get any success!!I know what you are all thinking,but he who dares WINS!!!!
#87
February 22nd, 2008 18:07
d’Argnet is listed as Irish as others also confirm. Yes he is a cracking bet if his price comes down a bit nearer to the race (but get the 40/1 now) and must be in any short list along with Point Barrow (clearly aimed at the National) and Parsons Legacy (got all the right trends).
I will post on the positives and negatives of my 7 against the field later. The question is have I got the right 7?
The one key factor that I am going to stick with is the OR rating. The winner will be between OR 136 and 144!
#88
February 22nd, 2008 18:16
Some great narrowing down there Systems Man – I like your style!
I can’t see D’Argent winning the National. It is a very very tricky year to choose a winner. I have been hugely confident the past three years and that has produced two out of three winners. But this year I am in a quandry.
#89
February 22nd, 2008 21:10
Very dissapointing to see that Parsons Legacy may run at Cheltenham. I think last yr there was a bigger gap between Cheltenham and Aintree which would have helped Silver Birch. My other big hopes were Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry but they didn’t run well last week. I’m thinking of disregarding a few of the ‘lesser’ trends now in the hope something else will jump out at me from the list!
#90
February 22nd, 2008 22:14
System man,I can’t have Mon Mome on the account of only having 1 run so far and i think you will find that in recent years the winner has run before christmas.I see Comply or die is running at the weekend so lets see what happens there.Still a novice so not so sure it will stay on my list.Does anyone know if Sir Rembrandt is running before the big day?Still on my shortlist if it runs again!
#91
February 22nd, 2008 23:48
Interesting to note the Point Barrow is now back in to 20/1 from 28/1 with Skybet. Paddy Power had it at 33/1 earlier in the week and had to drop it back to 20/1 aswell. Maybe all hope is not lost on him yet!
I’m dying to hear your positives and negatives on your top 7 Systems man.
#92
February 23rd, 2008 00:28
I really can’t help but feel, if back to full fitness, that McKelvey has to be there at the finish in the frame. I notice his odds are shortening today – I wonder if positive news has filtered through re his recovery?
#93
February 23rd, 2008 05:24
This is the vote from the Irish jury on the magniicent 7+1
Cloudy Lane – ok
Point Barrow – 2 slow, would need a motor bike under his barrow.
D’Argent – 2 Warwick, 5 chase wins – 4 at Warwick. Mr. King said on Jan.’05 and march ’07 “He’s not an Aintree horse.”
Naunton Brook – 2 low class and pu last yr.
Parsons Legacy – ok
Comply or Die – ok
Mon Mome – 2 French
Bewleys Berry – 2 poor a strike rate in chases.
p.s. Last 17 winners all had won at least 3 chases and ran 2-7 prep races.
#94
February 23rd, 2008 21:41
Part 3.
Lets prick that red cherry that Point Barrow has had too many runs to win.
Here are the runs/results prior to their GN win for the last ten years from August preceeding the year of their win in April.
2007 2 (the race before the GN win).4.2.8 = 4 runs
2006 3.4.4.BD.4.8 = 6 runs
2005 1.6.10.4.2.9. = 6 runs
2004 5.PU.2.4.3 = 5 runs
2003 4.6.3.1.3 = 5 runs
2002 7.6.3.3.5.7 = 6 runs
2001 F.2.5.5.4.1 = 6 runs
2000 3.9.4.5.7.8 = 6 runs
1999 1.4.5.13.8.5 = 6 runs
1998 5.6.1.5.5 = 5 runs
So you see every winner for the last ten years the winner has had between 4 and 6 prep races. So allowing for a possible miner change in the trends we should exclude any horse with less than 3 prep races or more than 7 (there is probably only time for one more prep race)
Every winner has had a prep race coming either 1, 2nd or 3rd. Again allowing for a miner change in this trend we should exclude any hosre who has not come 4th in a prep race since August (be careful as there still still time for another prep race, so recheck in the week before the race.
Now lets turn to my final 7 against the field.
CLOUDY LANE OR 141.
POSITIVE: Meets almost all trends. Has class(PRP:156 and TS:143)
NEGATIVE: Two wins this season (no other winner in 10 years has has 2 wins in prep races).
Verdict: Keep on reserve list – review later
POINT BARROW OR 143
POSITIVE: Almost perfect profile. Clearly aimed at National (Note: 6 prep runs – spot on!). Winner of the Irish National.
NEGATIVE: best prep race result 4th (but its only a very miner blemish, he was 2nd in April ’07.
Low TS rating of 129 (but two winners have had less!)
VERDICT: A must for any short list – take a price now!
D’ARGENT: OR 142 (IRISH!!)
POSITIVE: Perfect profile. 2nd in Midlands National March ’07
NEGATIVE: Cant find any
VERDICT: A must for any short list at big price now (but not so big as to rule him out)
NAUNTON BROOK: OR 140
POSITIVE: Good profile
NEGATIVE: Not won a class 1 or two chase. PU in GN last year. 66/1 with Lad – exclude
VERDICT: Exclude
PARSONS LEGACY: OR 140
POSITIVE:3rd in Scottish National
NEGATIVE: Only two prep runs!! Will run at Cheltenham? (3 weeks prior to GN)giving him 3 prep runs (one short is only a miner blemish)
VERDICT: I still like this horse despite the lack of prep runs. He has a good alround profile.
COMPLY OR DIE: OR 139
POSITIVE: Good profile
NEGATIVE: Only won Claas1 Nov Chase.
VERDICT; Stays on short list.
Mon Mome: or 141
POSITIVE: 2nd in Welsh Nat.
NEGATIVE: French! Only one prep run!!!
VERDICT: Exclude. One prep run and PU!
FINAL VERDICT: (In Order)
D’ARGENT
POINT BARROW
COMPLY OR DIE
PARSONS LEGACY
RESERVE
CLOUDY LANE
EXCLUDE
Mon Mome
NAUNTON BROOK
WARNING: We must review this list and any you have at each stage and again in race week. We may still need to add or subtract runners. This list is for an eary price.
Now I have given you my four against the field – who are yours and why?
#95
February 23rd, 2008 22:10
I have not backed alot antepost because it often seems to doom them even surviving to start! I backed nil desperandum last year, bad experience and it was the first year in 8 I haven’t won. Two of those years I’d backed 3 of the 4 places! and last year all 4 places were on my shortlist of 10,I backed all 6 of the rest in a desperate attempt to keep what I think must be a record (brag,brag)I knew I’d loose, why, I felt it and too much study! Although I do analyse weight,age,jumping ability,staying power recent performances and going! I also include topical/news tendancies and current lucky numbers and letters eg.numbersixvalverde won in 2006 and six did seem lucky plus it was irish and what about point to point racing ey nobody has mentioned it!? Anyway,I should have picked out silver birch. After seeing it in cheltenham cross country it was on my shortlist and 2007 felt just like 2006 failed to link up feelings! another lucky number, not 6 but 3! usually 2 3′s.lots of news stories involved 33people or people who were 33etc second half of year was very unlucky for this no.by the way!silver birch was for a long time 33-1 and on the day wore 30.This year form and fondness points to D’argent jumps,stays negatives aintree and grey
topical wand!!! is positive silver(argent)as a metal is having a renaissance apparently and silver birch won last year! or was that it. My unknown horse technique, bought up kilbeggan blade, horses and sports people with names starting with a k then b have won or scored.Sensible analysis makes you think place at best, but hey my feelings have won the race 7 times in a row, bindaree was just a feeling.I also feel McKelvey may have a prominent couple of letters.Will think/feel further ey
#96
February 23rd, 2008 22:30
Sorry my mistake the final order (subject to review) is:
FINAL VERDICT: (In Order)
D’ARGENT
POINT BARROW
PARSONS LEGACY
COMPLY OR DIE
#97
February 23rd, 2008 23:57
Loving your work Systems Man and I am in agreement with you on so many issues.
I would love Point Barrow to win after crashing out at the first last year. He fills so many of the trends and I’m hoping his best this year has been saved for Aintree by his shrewd irish trainer. The Irish have made this race their own recently winning 6 of the last 9 and I hope that trend continues. He has been my main hope since last year.
D’Argent is looking more appealing by the second and still available at 40/1 with some bookies. It should be worth a small EW bet. He has stamina on his side after coming second in the Midlands National. Small negative is that he is a grey and they rarely win the National. Although that could be because they aren’t many around! Solid chance.
I can’t see Parsons Legacy winning due to not having the right number of prep runs and the fact he will run at Cheltenham only having three weeks to recover for Aintree. I’ve never liked Cheltenham runners in the National.
Comply Or Die ran a blinder today to win the Eider under a huge weight. I’m hoping he doesn’t run at Cheltenham and heads straight to Aintree as he will have had five prep runs and has the class to do well there. But you think he might of had his day today and you have to remember he was a few lengths down on Cloudy Lane at the start of the season so this pays a huge compliment to his chances.
Cloudy Lane looks a very worthy favourite at this stage and will probably start that on the day itself with the McCain factor. The two wins do worry me and I’m hoping he runs next weekend in the Grimthorpe as opposed to at Cheltenham. He is 10/1 now so if he wins next weekend he could be a very short price for the big one. Excellent claims.
What a race this is shaping up to be.
#98
February 24th, 2008 07:51
Great final 4 systems man – i reckon most of us are coming to a similar conclusion as the weeks go by …
THE TOP 4 have to be
Dargent
point barrow
comply or die
cloudy lane
with saver on
parsons legacy
Although the subject has already been touched upon i cant ever remember my key fancies all having such a preponderance to wearing blinkers although it didnt seem to affect mckelvey or whats up boys too much nor deny earth summit. i loved comply or dies jumping yest but the nagging doubt is that he has his day in the sun yesterday.Nevertheless it would be folly to rule him out…will be interesting to watch cloudy lane in the grimthorpe next week. !
#99
February 24th, 2008 12:45
Hi Guys,Got some bad news about D’argent from my sorce in alan kings stable.The word is that D’argent will go for the Midlands National. I have 1 question before i go~has any horse won the Eider chase and gone on to win the national? My shortlist is down to 4 but im not feeling confident about any of them!! CLOUDY LANE,POINT BARROW<SIR REMBRANDT AND NAUNTON BROOK (not on stats just have a feeling about it)
#100
February 24th, 2008 14:42
oh bother,
put some money on D’argent last night my antepost record sucks! will back him in the midlands then.I’ve also backed Comply or Die, even though with a name like that I’d rather not, he impressed yesterday and in the past.When Hedgehunter debuted in the GN I said, with a name like that it’ll either fall and die at the first or win! as we all know he fell at the last then won the next, a better outcome than my prediction and what a great national horse why hasn’t the handicapper given him a fair chance since? does anyone know where I can bet on horses you know will finish?
#101
February 24th, 2008 18:58
We dont wat to waste money at this stage so all the information on D’Argent we can get the better (anyone know any more?). If he is heading for the Midlands National (and this would be a very logical choice for him)we should hold fire on an anti post bet for a while (drat and there was I looking forward to holding 40/1 on him!).
The whole exercise will be a lot easier when we get closer to the GN and we know who is running.
Just hold on to these key trends and use them closer to the race date.
ONE
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
TWO
RPR of 144 or above
TS of 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) – this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
THREE
Include only runners with three or more Chase wins (any type, Nov, Han, Non Han)
FOUR
Exclude any horse who has a OR above 145
FIVE
Exclude any horse who has not completed at least 3 prep runs (we are making some allowance here) since August 2007 by the beginning of April.
And you should have a small short list with the winner!
#102
February 24th, 2008 19:01
“we should hold fire on an anti post bet for a while” – I meant D’Argent only until we know a little more, from all those in the know out there.
You must take an anti post bet on Point Barrow now as his price can only drop and he will be in any short list of 4 against the field (and is aimed at the GN).
#103
February 24th, 2008 19:24
Great knowledge and work once again Systems Man.
I’d suggest forgetting anything from 11st 2lbs and up as Hedgehunter with 11st 1lbs has carried the highest weight recently and he was a high class horse. It’s very tricky to win with a lot of weight.
#104
February 24th, 2008 20:37
Thats a bit of a bummer about dargent. i thot he would have had a massive chance . is it outwith the realms of possibility that he could potantially go for both ?… i know its asking a lot but if my memory serves me correct Lord Gylene finished 2nd in the midlands national before prevailing at aintree a few weeks later.. maybe all is not lost yet…lets keep our fingers xd…
#105
February 24th, 2008 21:46
Just one more trend for everyone to consider (should help on the day of the race and in race week if we make some small allowances for some change in price):
“Despite its reputation as being a lottery for punters, 13 of the last 16 winners of the race were in the first eight in the betting”-starting price. (I think that excludes 2007 so its 13 from 17).
#106
February 24th, 2008 22:16
Revised list as a result of Comply or Die’s win on over 33F on Saturday.
1. Comply or Die – class and sped to win
2. POINT BARROW
3. PARSONS LEGACY
4. D’ARGENT – awaiting more info – will he run in GN? Hold your bets for a while.
RESERVE
CLOUDY LANE
#107
February 25th, 2008 01:14
There are quite a few GN winners sired by Roselier aren’t there, guess what D’argent is too!
so he didn’t have a good time the only time he’s been to aintree, but sometimes he doesn’t run a good race, doesn’t mean he hates it there, hope they reconsider with that weight and breeding. Comply or die looks like a good ticket to have though. Going to wait now see if it rains
#108
February 25th, 2008 11:32
I note what everyone is saying about Point Barrow as I would love him to win and have already put a few quid on 25/1. However, If you look at his form there are too many ’0′ next to his name. Look at all the other winners;
2007 2 4.2.8
2006 3.4.4.BD.4.8
2005 1.6.10.4.2.9.
2004 5.PU.2.4.3
2003 4.6.3.1.3
2002 7.6.3.3.5.7
2001 F.2.5.5.4.1
2000 3.9.4.5.7.8
1999 1.4.5.13.8.5
1998 5.6.1.5.5
Point Barrow 008040
I dont mean to be picky here but clearly Point Barrow has not been in great form this season and not other profile has as many ’0′
#109
February 25th, 2008 12:18
My four horses at the moment are:
Bewleys Berry,
Point Barrow,
Parsons Legacy &
Kelami.
3 other horses i am mulling over are D’Argent, Baily Breeze and Cornish Rebel.
#110
February 25th, 2008 12:38
My four horses at present are;
1. COMPLY OR DIE (took 95′s on betfair before sat)
2. POINT BARROW
3. CLOUDY LANE
4. D’Argent but if doesnt run then would have to be
PARSOSN LEGACY
#111
February 25th, 2008 13:41
Would you be put off a horse just because it has run at the cheltenham festival?
Stats show that 5 out of the last 6 winners had there final prep race in march.
#112
February 25th, 2008 13:55
Hmmmm I think I would be put off. Only Bindaree and Silver Birch in the last 10 years have ran at the festival and go onto win the National. I think a prep race in March is a stroll in the park compared to running in a big race at Cheltenham
#113
February 25th, 2008 14:05
I think you can eliminate any 10yos.
Its been about 60 years since the same age won 3 years in a row and they have won the last 2.
#114
February 25th, 2008 14:51
Has any other horse apart from Numbersixvalverde won the national without ever running at Aintree before?
If not would you class this as strong enough trend to look at while compiling your shortlist?
#115
February 25th, 2008 15:04
Hmm forget last question. Just found the answer and it nots a big enough trend to consider
#116
February 25th, 2008 16:41
Andrew, if you go on Previous Winners on this very website you will see that the winners in ’99, ’00 and ’01 were all 9 year olds.
#117
February 25th, 2008 17:11
Jimmy, I think they have got the 2001 result wrong. According to the racing post site Red Marauder was born 1990 which means he would have been an 11yo when he won.
#118
February 25th, 2008 17:45
Controversial… someone will be checking Red Marauder’s birthday next
#119
February 25th, 2008 20:46
It seems pretty clear that no one horse fits the bill perfectly. Which stats should we DEFINITELY go with and which ones should we make allowances for? I still like Parsons Legacy and if he had a prep run in the next couple of weeks at somewhere other than Cheltenham I reckon most people would be on!
#120
February 25th, 2008 23:07
Well my money went on COMPLY OR DIE today and he must have a fantastic chance with only 10.06 (will to be 10.08 at least). Has all the right trends (after his Sat win) with real class and speed.
I noticed that POINT BARROW was down to 20/1 at Ladbrooks.
Both these horses are now in the rigt price bracket and I suspect will drop even further.
#121
February 26th, 2008 07:59
Dan,Dan, your the man. Thank you for saving my sanity with your note on Point Barrow’s form figures v the last 10 winners.
Every so often we punters fall into the old trap, if the horse does not quite fit the trend we tweak the trend to fit the horse.
For all those that are on Point Barrow I do hope he wins by 10 lengths and if he does I will say, I knew he was a cracker.But for now I have to look at the facts.
His TS rating for chases is 105 not 129. the 129 is for hurdles and he won’t see many of those at Aintree. Monty’s Pass had the lowest TS of 111 and the second lowest was HedgeHunter at 126 not 128 as stated.
Some might point to his shocking form before winning the Irish National. In those 5 prep races for the Irish National he was beaten 84 lengths in total. In his last prep race (if it is his last) for the Aintree National he was beaten 83 lengths, thats 83 lengths in 1 race.In his 6 prep races this year he has been beaten 251 lengths. What more can I say, after that rant he must be a dead cert.
#122
February 26th, 2008 09:35
So what is your tip Miinnehoma?
#123
February 26th, 2008 11:30
to all us point barrow fans out there maybe all is not lost … amberleigh house finished a gallant third in the national behind montys pass in 2003 i think….he ran a great race that day and wasnt far away from winning the thing… his final prep race before aintree…. the red square vodka gold cup …where he finished plum last !! there were 15 finishers that day and he was beaten by about 60 lengths … so lets hang on to those ante post vouchers for just a little while on pb .. maybe he wont win it but a bad run in the red square at haydock doesnt seem to stop horses coming on and performing well at aintree.the dream lives on
#124
February 26th, 2008 15:22
“Andrew Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Jimmy, I think they have got the 2001 result wrong. According to the racing post site Red Marauder was born 1990 which means he would have been an 11yo when he won.”
Red Marauder was indeed an 11 year old when he won but i still wouldn’t be ruling out any 10 year olds based on that trend. Otherwise the trends you could find would be endless i.e the winner wont have a SP of a odd/1 (eg 7/1, 9/1, 11/1 etc) as this has never happened 4 times in a row before. The last time two 10 year olds won it in a row this was followed up by a 7 year old winning it.
#125
February 26th, 2008 16:52
Hi everyone,
Apologies for the problems re Red Marauder’s age – we are sorting things out but it takes a little while to update.
Thanks
#126
February 26th, 2008 21:03
Miinnehoma said “Point Barrow – TS rating for chases is 105 not 129″
Looks like a bad mistake on my part all to do with rushing to get it on this Blog. Yes Point Barrow would be stting a new trend with a TS of 105 (does not loook good does it?).
I stand by Comply or Die as the No1 outstanding bet at this stage.
and
Parsons Legacy
and
D’Argent – if he runs (but wait before you put any money on him)
For my sins I am goig to relook at all the runners over the next few days to see what I can come up with.
#127
February 26th, 2008 21:36
Hi Systems Man,I have to ask you what your reasoning behind backing Comply or Die? As most horses dont win a race after the weights are declared+ I cant remember a horse winning over 4 miles before the big day.Also i have grave doubts about the quality of the field it beat,would you back elvis returns in a grade 1 chase? I think you will find that very few (if any)horses have won over 4 miles in the same year.Hedgehunter,numbersix and silver birch all won over a longer distance at least 1 season before. Sorry mate only trying to help.Good news thou they are having a rethink about D’argent running, but hold your bets until i get the green light.
#128
February 26th, 2008 23:03
There are holes to be picked in everything if we try hard enough. There will never be a way to pick the ‘perfect’ National horse. The main factors are there for all to see and I think we all agree on.
I don’t think factors like ‘not having the same age win three times in a row’ or ‘horses winning over 4 miles in the same year’, should count. They are too ambiguous. Otherwise we could be here forever….. ‘horse number 23 has never won, or whatever’
I have to say I am loving this blog though and debating the candidates for the big day in April!
#129
February 26th, 2008 23:35
Hi S Man,Could you tell us why Sir Rembrandt isn’t on the shortlist? I realised it pulled up last time,but it is running again on the 1st of march.So providing it runs a good race it will fit all the stats.RPR & TS,4 runs this season,won welsh national,won £18,000 grade 1 chase,under 11st and run a fair race in the hennessy.I know its 12yrs old but how many times in the last 3yrs has this horse had to lumber top weight? When it went to chelt with 10st 2lb at the start of the season it had Simon, L’ami,D’argent and Comply or die well in arrears!!!Look out everyone!!!
#130
February 27th, 2008 05:44
To Systems Man, Fair dinkum, keep up the good work.
TO Stephen,
For what it’s worth I still have 8 in the mix. A few might surprise you, as they do me but each 1 fits my idea of the winning trend.
Butler’s Cabin, Snowy Morning, Sir Rembrant, Cornish Rebel, Cloudy Lane, Cornish Sett, Parsons Legacy and Comply or Die.
My No.1 Parsons Legacy – home and hosed – maybe.
The cheltenham factor not a problem if you look at the bigger picture. 6 out of the last 17 winners ran at cheltenham, with a gap of 16 – 31 days. 1/16, 2/23, 2/25 and 1/31. Parsons should have 23 days rest. I think thats why his last 2 races were 18 days apart, the quick 1-2, then 2 months off and then the quick 1-2 again. He will need to be 3rd. at least at cheltenham and will need good ground at aintree.
The class horse in the race at the wts. and who is head and shoulders above everyone else has to be Sir Rembrant – 2nd., 3rd. and 7th. in the gold cup. New trainer, new lease on life, ok – last race not good but if he takes to the track and keeps up close to the pace,
He Will Destroy Them All.
On the other hand if he gets 2 far behind early on, he will spit out the dummy and pu. bless him.
#131
February 27th, 2008 11:00
What are peoples views of Dun Doire, presuming he gets in that is?
As i have a feeling that if he does get in then he could be the dark horse this year
#132
February 27th, 2008 14:36
I am working on a complete re review (due to my mistake about Point Barow and his low TS rating)of all the original 29 horses that met this original minimum trends:
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
The horses were (one of them will win the 2008 GN!):
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run
All will be explained when I post the results and why each is excluded or included. Will take a day or two yet.
#133
February 27th, 2008 16:48
I cant help thinking that we might be missing a few horses at the lower end of the weights. At present and looking at the list above the lowest weight would be Philson Run who would carry 10st 7 (as BOS now out). I cant see the lowest weight being 10st 7. Here are some horses currently alloted 10st 5 or less (will be 2lb higher on the day so bear that in mind;
4-55P5 Ursumman 9 10-5
166P0 Ardaghey 9 10-4
11-7PP Baron Windrush 10 10-4
55734 Boychuk 7 10-4
51P-06 Dun Doire 9 10-4
/781P Joes Edge 11 10-4
31P32 Kilbeggan Blade 9 10-4
Any of the above worth a shout? What about Kilbeggan Blade?
#134
February 27th, 2008 17:43
Dan – I agree with your Kilbeggan blade shout -he won a 3m 6f race at sandown earlier on this season worth 20k and he fits systems mans base trends above – he might not win but wouldnt put u off backing him for a place… i still reckon we are all making a huge error in dissing the french breds ….i reckon both royal auclair and mon mome must have a massive shout….mon mome bounced back to form today – he could yet be the big springer in the market
#135
February 27th, 2008 19:17
Who will run?
These are the key dates supplied by the Aintree racecourse:
Weights revealed February 5
First forfeit stage March 4
Second forfeit stage March 18
Five/six-day confirmation stage March 31,
Final declaration stage 10.00am, April 3.
#136
February 27th, 2008 19:29
I can cut systems mans list very easily 1/ Knock out all french bred. 2/ Knock out any horse allocated 11st plus 3/Knock out any horse that wont have had 4 runs this season.That leaves a shortlist of 10 and even if the horse allocated 10st 4lb get in the race they wont fit enough stats.As it stands i believe that only 3 horses will fit the stats come the big day.I will post my 3 on sunday and would be good if anyone could guess my picks before then?
#137
February 27th, 2008 21:00
hey you guys are considering my funny feelin horse kilbeggan blade, he does have several tangeable factors suggesting he could be thereabouts. I am enjoying the recent reassessment and expansion of this argument because for all the amazing statistical analysis people like systems man do, he hasn’t won thing thing as often as I have;7 of last 8 adding funny feelings etc!!
I agree with Dan about Kilbeggan, the french Royal Auclair who will run on at the end on a very low weight! and Mon Mome, Kelami?
I also agree with Miinehomma about Sir
Rembrandts chances.Baron Windrush has also already been noted he is still only 10! I fancied Philson Run the year before last when he didn’t get in, would back in the mud! Worried these three get my attention because they have been around so long and I am being sentimental.
Starting to get intersted in lookin at Parsons Legacy whom I have wierdly ignored as I have never followed him as he has never impressed me. BUT,the cheltenham racing facts holding up and the fact he is running 23 days later, the spookiest magic number has now been noted,also topical name, remember the Archbishop of Canterburys recent comments! will watch him and see.
Great to hear D’argents camp are reconsidering thanks for the update Wacky! blinkers do worry me though,I think alot on my current list are regular wearers what happens when they take them back off a horse for one race?
To recap I am already on D’argent and Comply or die.
Definate maybe- Kilbeggan,Mckelvey,Royal Auclair Kelami,
Considering Sir Remb,Baron Windrush,Black apalachi,Joes edge,Naunton Brook,Cloudy lane,Cornish,and how about old Longshanks can any horse win fresh?
Favs on this blog I wouldn’t consider are Point barrow,bewleys berry,dun doire
#138
February 27th, 2008 21:29
wacky,
i reckon your 3 against the field are:
Comply Or Die
D’Argent
Black Appalachi
was I close??
My fancy would be Parsons Legacy:
10 years old (right age)
10st 7lb at least (correct weight)
had 19 runs over fences (over 10)
has won a class 1 race over 3m
has won a race worth over £17,000 (£39,000)
his RPs are increasing showing he is improving
has been placed once in his last 3 runs (would need to place in the Kim Muir to keep trend)
has had more than two years experience in chases
has come 5th in a Hennessy
has come 3rd in a Scots National
is Hobbs’ 1st choice so likely to have Jonhson on board
#139
February 27th, 2008 21:49
Wacky – your top 3 are (in no order);
Sir Rembrandt
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
If i’m not right how many did I get?
#140
February 28th, 2008 13:47
Hey we getting some interesting comments but all it does is confuse me but its all good fun. My 3 against the field are. CLOUDY LANE. PARSONS LEGACY AND GOOD OLD POINT BARROW Not giving up on him yet. Got 25s 33s and 25s so quite happy.
#141
February 28th, 2008 18:20
Hi Guys,If you haven’t had a bet yet i would advise waiting until the 4th march now,as this is the next chance of any horses being withdrawn.If you fancy Cloudy Lane,Mr Pointment or Sir Rembrandt it maybe best to take a price as if they run ok on saturday the bookies are bound to cut there prices.
#142
February 28th, 2008 19:09
Hi All. Systems man – lovin’ your work. Could you possibly (or anyone) list some of the irregular traits/winners from the recent past eg horses that won that had traits definitely not fitting stats – too old, too heavy a weight, never won over 3miles, low handicap rating etc etc.
Would be good as these rarities can still crop up!
#143
February 28th, 2008 19:40
Hi Showlad,If you buy a racing post on grand national day you will find a page that gives trends on the national for the last 10yrs.I know that it is hard to believe that the winner will fit around 7/8 stats but it has for a long time.Silver Birch fitted all the stats last year but i didn’t put much money on it because of the going on the day.My shortlist wont change now and if the stats hold up,one of my 3 that are left will win!!Just have to PRAY the trends aren’t broken this YEAR!!
#144
February 28th, 2008 20:23
I’ve been reading the blog with interest over the last few days. Fascinating stuff. Thanks to everyone who’s chipped in with expert analysis.
I’ve had my bet already, though I’m no expert. Point Barrow. Cards on the table. Looks like an identikit Grand National winner and his preparation is not dissimilar to last year, although (like many of you) I would have prefered a better run last time out.
Having said that, I remember watching Earth Summit (another plodder who relished heavy conditions) tootle round at Haydock, failing to inspire confidence, before winning the Grand National in 1998.
Point Barrow has got a cracking weight again this year and the Irish trainers are canny when it comes to keeping the spotlight off their horses in the run-up to the National. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Hughes throws him into a hurdle race in Ireland over the next three weeks to freshen him up.
It will mean a lot of races for the horse over the last few months, but it has not been a gruelling schedule. In many races he’s hardly been tested.
The reason I’m posting is… D’Argent has caught my eye, but I’m puzzled by a couple of trainer Alan King’s comments.
‘He’s not an Aintree horse,’ after coming 2nd to Baron Windrush in the Midlands National (March 2007) and ‘he’s not a Grand National horse’ after again coming 2nd to Baron Windrush, this time at Warwick (January 2005).
The stats add up. But the trainer’s not keen. Can anyone explain…?
#145
February 28th, 2008 23:04
Re: Point Barrow (who I like but we must not get attached to any one horse when using trends)
Learn from my mistake. Point Barrow does not have the all important TS rating of 128! (i.e. has not got the speed to win and most of his races have been measured))
My earlier note:
Must (9/10) have 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) – this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
Now this should help you all:
In the last ten years other than the 10th year 1998 (which was OR 147)all winners had a OR of 136 to 144 (such a short range is it not!).
So we are looking for a horse who meets all the key trends and has a current weight between 10.05 and 10.11(i am assuming at this stage that OR 136 and 137, 10.03 and 10.04 will not make the cut – if any do we will need to assess them later.
So its easy for anyone to find the winner now is it not! So lets have your predictions based on the key trends please (or do i have to do all the work?).
These are:
A
1. 8 to 12 years old
2. handicap rating above 135 on the day
3. weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
4. won over at least three miles
5. run in at least ten chases
6. won a chase worth at least £17,000
Gives us these 29
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,
B
7. OR 136 to 144(will give a cut off point of 10.13 when at least 2 lbs are added to all weights)
8. TS 128 (in a case during racing career)
C
9. Won at least three Chase races (any kind)
10. Has now had at least 3 prep runs (still time for one more).
11. Has run in at least 9 chases (any kind. Need 10 but there is still time fo another prep race)
12. Won class 1 or 2 chase 10/10
Stop here if you can and are down to 4 or less.
Now if your short list is still too long (more than 4)you may want to take a litle risk and use these two factors.
13. 9 out of the last ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Handicap Chase prior to wining the National (in 2002 Bindraee won a Nov Chase).
14. 9 out of ten winners (9/10 trend) have won a Chase with 13 or more runners competing (7/10 were in Han Chases. two were Nov Chases and again in 2002 Bindaree had only won in a Chase with 8 runners.)
#146
February 28th, 2008 23:35
Hi SYstems Man,I have noticed that the last 3 winners of the national have won a race over 3m 4f.Do you think that this is another trend forming? My final 3 are between 10st 7lb & 10st 10lb in the current weights and im fairly sure that won’t change!
#147
February 28th, 2008 23:57
Hi Wacky. Thanks for the advice but my bets will all be on well ahead of the Big Day
I’d been following Silver Birch from his Welsh National win, then his year out and then gradually coming back into form last year. I saw him being hardly tipped at all, but stuck to my guns none the less and got him at very long odds on betfair for last years race. Let’s just say I did rather well.
Wonder when we’ll get any news re McKelvey? Sir Remabrandt looks very interesting too and at a great weight and I also think Billyvoddan (though carrying a bit too much weight, but massive odds on betfair) and D’Argent are worth a look. Dunbrody Millar would be a bit of a dark horse and Longshanks too, but they may not make the cut.
#148
February 29th, 2008 09:37
This might be of some interest to any Sir Rembrandt fans that like coincidence.
2003 Welsh National
1st. Bindaree 9 10-9 10/1
2nd. Sir Rembrandt 7 11-4 2/1f.
3rd. Hedgehunter 7 10-2 7/2
dist. 1/2L.and 22L.
They say things happen in 3′s.
#149
February 29th, 2008 10:33
To Systems Man,
Based solely on those facts and rules and only looking for the winner – anything can be placed and thats another days work.
My 4 would be and not in any order –
Sir Rembrandt, Cloudy Lane, Cornish Sett, and Comply Or Die.
#150
February 29th, 2008 16:31
Of the last 16 winners 14 had previously run in a national ( grand,welsh,scottish,irish,kerry or midlands) with 12 of them placing.
Of the 2 that ran unplaced Red Marauder had a 5th place in the Hennessey and Royal Athlete had a 3rd in the gold cup.
Of the two not to have run in a National, Rough Quest ran 2nd in the gold cup which just leaves Seagram who won a 14 runner chase at Cheltenham in his prep run.
I havent gone through all the runners yet but I will be looking for a horse with a previous place in a national or top 6 in the gold cup or Hennessey and then keep an eye on anything that wins at Cheltenham. This should narrow the field down before applying any other trends.
#151
February 29th, 2008 19:22
Last year I was convinced Ossmoses was going to win and had £20 on, but then he got injured. I ended up backing Silver Birch so more than got my money back on Ossmoses. Does anyone think Ossmoses can win it this yr? I’ve reluctantly ruled him out as it seems he doesn’t meet enough of the trends this year.
#152
February 29th, 2008 20:55
Ossmoses
OR 136 curently 10.03 (unlikley to make the cut and you will lose your money – if you do want to back him wait till you know if he is in or out).
Only one race this year March ’07 a Nov Hurdle (race prior to this was Dec 2006)! No chance (has some nice trends otherwise). Sorry
#153
February 29th, 2008 21:12
thanks Systems Man – I’ll stick to Parsons Legacy for this yr. Do you go on the racing post website? Parsons Legacy is never shown on the antepost betting list for the GN…..seems a bit odd. But he is proced up on all the bookies own websites and I got 35/1 on betfair when the weights were announced.
#154
February 29th, 2008 23:04
Just to add another small twist to the race,it looks like Turpin Green is out for the season.That means if Hedgehunter stands its ground there will be a 3lb rise in the weights.I think 2mrws racing will help me decide my main bet for this year,so i will post my final 3 on sunday.I will add 2 that i think have place claims as well!
#155
March 1st, 2008 10:53
Based on Systems Mans Trends of;
1. 8 to 12 years old
2. handicap rating above 135 on the day
3. weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
4. won over at least three miles
5. run in at least ten chases
6. won a chase worth at least £17,000
AND
7. OR 136 to 144(will give a cut off point of 10.13 when at least 2 lbs are added to all weights)
8. TS 128 (in a case during racing career)
9. Won at least three Chase races (any kind)
10. Has now had at least 3 prep runs (still time for one more).
11. Won class 1 or 2 chase 10/10
I have come up with the following table;
OR 136-144 TS 128 3+Runs Won 3 chases Won Class 1/2
Rule Surpeme, 152 161 2 Yes Yes
Billyvodden, 151 128 2 Yes Yes
Knight Legend, 151 135 6 Yes No
Simon, 151 161 3 Yes Yes
Ungaro, 150 154 4 Yes Yes
Butlers Cabin, 147 131 3 Yes Yes
Slim Pickings, 147 159 3 No No
Chelsea Harbour,146 127 6 Yes No
Vodka Bleu, 146 141 5 Yes Yes
L’Ami, 145 155 4 Yes Yes
Bewleys Berry, 144 136 2 No No
McKelvey, 144 159 0 Yes Yes
Point Barrow, 143 105 6 Yes Yes
Sir Rembrandt, 143 130 4 Yes Yes
Cornish Rebel, 142 151 2 Yes Yes
D’Argent, 142 167 4 Yes Yes
Baily Breeze, 141 113 5 Yes No
Cloudy Lane, 141 163 4 Yes Yes
Mon Mome, 141 142 1 Yes Yes
Cornish Sett, 140 137 3 Yes Yes
Naunton Brook, 140 167 5 Yes No
Parsons Legacy, 140 162 2 Yes Yes
Royal Auclair, 140 164 5 Yes Yes
Royal County St 140 130 2 Yes Yes
Comply or Die, 139 165 3 Yes Yes
Kelami, 139 155 5 Yes Yes
Black Apalachi, 138 131 5 No Yes
Homer Wells, 138 124 3 Yes Yes
Philson Run, 138 163 2 Yes Yes
The Horses that meet these trends are;
Sir Rembrandt
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
Cornish Sett
Royal Auclair
Comply or Die
Kelami
Some horses could still make this list as another run is schedules, for example Parsons Legacy is running at Cheltenham and tha would make 3 runs.
#156
March 1st, 2008 10:55
Also Wacky you mention that ss Turpin Green is out weights will go up by 1lb but if Celestial Gold runs they won’t or is Celestial Gold out?
#157
March 1st, 2008 12:21
Some lovely work there Dan/Systems Man.
I am pleased that two of my Ante Post bets are in the 7 that meet the trends.
Comply Or Die and Cloudy Lane all the way!
#158
March 1st, 2008 12:22
Im fairly sure that Cel gold is a non runner.Like your shortlist Dan but there is 2 french breds on it so your down to 5 in my books.Be ready to see prices being slashed by those tight bookies if any of the nat entrys run a good race!!
#159
March 1st, 2008 14:52
Hi All, who’s running today of the Grand Nat front runners?
#160
March 1st, 2008 17:45
Even though Cloudy Lane won today – that is 3 wins in the last 3 runs, no other profile has this kind of form. Should we be put off by this??
#161
March 1st, 2008 18:05
I must admit Dan that i dont like the form figures of Cloudy lane.I’ve backed it at 20/1 but i will be laying off on the day as with form figures like that its bound to be backed to around 4/1.I must say that i was far from impressed with Sir Rembrandt and as for Mr Pointment you can forget that one for sure!
#162
March 1st, 2008 18:18
I agree. Wacky what is your list then?
#163
March 1st, 2008 19:00
Hi Dan,I want to see what comments have been made by the trainers in the racing post 2mrw before i commit myself.But if the stats are upheld its got to be D’ARGENT,SIR REMBRANDT,POINT BARROW and CLOUDY LANE as the final 4.Do you agree?
#164
March 1st, 2008 21:19
“Even though Cloudy Lane won today – that is 3 wins in the last 3 runs, no other profile has this kind of form”
Correct even though he meets all the other trends this is a very odd profile and I will not back him (but dont let me put you off. No other GN winner in the last ten years has won 2 or three times in ts prep races (he peaked too early – 4 in a row??).
We should also resume Parsons Legacy will run between now and the GN (most likely at Cheltenham) ad is therefore on the short list.
Thanks Dan you saved me a lot of work.
SHORT LIST – in no order
Sir Rembrandt
D’Argent (is he running in GN?)
Cornish Sett
Royal Auclair
Comply or Die
Kelami
Parsons Legacy (to run at Cheltenham)
Cloudy Lane – to get 4 wins in a row? I dont think so.
I will try to examine all these next week but lets see who is left after First forfeit stage on March 4.
#165
March 1st, 2008 21:30
Another thing about Cloudy Lane is that he is only 8. I know 8 year olds have won before and last season there were 2 8 year olds finished 2nd and 3rd and perhaps the 2nd Mckelvey may have won it if it didnt pick an injury. However, most of them dont win.
#166
March 1st, 2008 22:37
I think we have started to over complicate this now and im happy with my shortlist.Like system man says lets wait til tuesday for the next cut off. Will get onto my mate about wether D’argent will be still in the race.Im beginning to think that this is a poor quality national and thats why we are trying to delve into it to FAR!!
#167
March 1st, 2008 23:08
First of all, everyone is entitled to their opinion and I respect what we all say on this fabulous forum.
I can’t knock Cloudy Lane in any way. He fits every single trend there is about the National. The only thing he doesn’t share with the past ten winners is that his form is ‘too good’, if there is such a thing. That being said, I would rather have seen him do what he did today than finish down the field. He is on an official rating of 141 in the National and was racing off 152 today. He trounced a decent field by 7 lengths, which I assume means he will go up again. If he goes up to around 158 it will mean he is running 17lbs lower than he should be in the National. Now to me that seems like a very very attractive handicap mark. He is a highly progressive chaser and has to be the one to beat on National day.
I can’t see Parsons Legacy winning the National. When I think of a winning combination, Hobbs and Johnson doesn’t spring to mind. If you are following your trends he can’t be in the list as he will have only run 3 times before Aintree and all the past ten winners have had between 4 and 6 runs. He will be running in a highly competitive race at Cheltenham only three weeks before the National. When he gets to AIntree he will encounter horses aimed specifically for the race and therefore will have skipped Cheltenham. When Silver Birch won after running at the festival last year there was a longer recovery time. Also, to me the cross country chase that he ran in is not a real festival test with the hustle and bustle you associate with Cheltenham. It’s more of a stroll around the countryside and won’t have taken much out of him. Parsons just doesn’t fit the bill for me.
If you fancy Cloudy Lane then you have to fancy Comply Or Die. Cloudy beat Comply by 2 and 1/2 lengths at the start of the season with Cloudy racing off 132 and Comply off 134. Since then they have both progressed, resulting in Comply winning the Eider over 4m 1f and rising to a rating of 150. He will be in the National off 139. So he has is 11lbs lower than he should be and will be 4lbs better off against Cloudy Lane from their run earlier in the season. It should be noted that Comply Or Die’s price has been dropping in the last few days and I suspect even more so after todays action. I hope he heads straight to the National and skips Cheltenham. He has class and clearly stays.
Some cracking horses going for this famous race and it is proving to be an interesting build up to the big day on April 5th. It’s great to see so much debate and thoughts from knowledgable people. Keep it up guys and gals.
#168
March 2nd, 2008 00:26
Comply Or Die is now my NO 1 bet and my money is already down. He will drop in price.
D’Argent had very good trends if he runs but i will say more when I have a bit more time to go through the short list.
I would not back any horse which is now more than 40/1 with the major bookmakers (quoted between 25/1 and 40/1 in the antipost market is a 8/10 trend [I presume at any time prior to the GN but I dont know the exact details])so comply or Die would fits this trend and D’Argent and Parsons Legacy any others? (but remember is only a 8/10 trend)?
#169
March 2nd, 2008 08:28
Love the new rules – will now change my 4.
Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, Parsons Legacy and Comply Or Die.
The last 2 eight year olds to win the national were Bindaree ’02 / Party Politics ’92. Both ran in that seasons Hennessey and Welsh Nat. Bindaree 5th./3rd.- Party Politics 2nd/2nd. Does Cloudy Lane’s form match that ?. He might not get the distance at 8 – Hedgehunter didn’t manage it.
#170
March 2nd, 2008 10:54
With regards to Sir Rembrandt if you read the racing post report on the race it states
‘Sir Rembrandt, placed in two Gold Cups, has lost his way since his good win at Cheltenham on his reappearance and was well beaten after a series of mistakes. He will now be retired’
#171
March 2nd, 2008 13:27
Just to confirm Sir Rembrandt has now been retired.
#172
March 2nd, 2008 16:45
Good job too, he ran a shocker was off the bridle well before half distance, never travelled and looked like he didn’t want to be there all the way round. Obvious the horse had lost the spirit for competitive racing.
#173
March 2nd, 2008 18:52
Shock Prediction – French horse to win Grand National?
Well here is my current final four against the field based on Dans work based on my trends list (which I do need to recheck to to be sure).
1. Comply or Die Coral 25/1 Ladbrooks 20/1
2. Kelami Coral 33/1 Ladbrooks 33/1
2. D’Argent Coral 40/1 Ladbrooks 33/1 – if he runs (but we need to be sure before backing him)
4. Parsons Legacy Coral 25/1 Ladbrooks 25/1 (he will run at Cheltenham giving him 3 runs. I know 4 is the best minimum trend but this is only a miner change in the trend)
Others excluded;
Cloudly Lane 6/1 Profile too good and strange! 3 wins in a row.
Cornish Sett 50/ nd 60/1 to high in price (price profile wrong)
Royal Auclair 66/1 and 66/1 to high i price (price profile wrong)
#174
March 2nd, 2008 19:36
I still have a hunch for Ossmoses. I know he doesn’t fit the exact profile but he could be a good each way bet. Last yr he was on many poeple’s shortlist before he got injured. Anyone else considering him? I know Systems Man has ruled him out, understandably.
#175
March 2nd, 2008 19:56
yep I thought Ossmoses’ reappearance was encouraging. He has the best GN sire like D’argent, and if he is withdrawn on the 4th I will definately back this other grey.
His history of being rather fancied for a previous GN going out injured then overlooked at 33s 40s is deju vu… Silver Birch
#176
March 2nd, 2008 20:20
I am in shock, systems man going against the stats!
thinking a french horse can win! good on you
kelami looks in the form of his life
royal auclair ran well and jumped well the other day, but didn’t you say horses that have run in the GN before even into a place don’t win?
oh well, I have backed royal auclair e/w cause he is bound to run and at 66′s is a great outsider.
#177
March 2nd, 2008 20:24
not only is cloudy lane too young and successful to win, is he not a bit small?
#178
March 2nd, 2008 21:22
If he is small, he doesn’t show it up against the fences. He flew over the last at Doncaster and gave plenty of air between the fence and his underside.
I think he goes to Aintree a very worthy favourite and has every chance there if he takes to the fences and is given a patient ride akin to the one Ruby Walsh gave Hedgehunter. He travels beautifully in his races and doesn’t want to hit the front too soon.
Still can’t see Parsons Legacy winning. He has run below par this season and hasn’t had many outings. He has form in the Scottish National, which is good, but to me he doesn’t look like a National winner.
#179
March 2nd, 2008 22:04
what is usually the lowest weight that gets in?
systems man thinks Ossmosses won’t get in with 10st3 can that be likely?
#180
March 2nd, 2008 22:21
Its important to remember trends can alter over the years so a small change in trends such as three prep races instead of 4 in quite possible (or 9 Chase runs in a racing career prior to the GN win instead of 10, or more than 27 etc).
So why could a French horse win the GN? Well in all honesty I dont think there is much logic in a trend regarding French horses other than they dont win (it will happen one day and maybe, just maybe 2008 is that year) but have the ‘right type’ like Kelami tried in numbers with his sort of form and background (in UK races)?
On all other trends Kelami fits the profile of a GN winner. Now if he was not French I wonder what his price would be? So he is on my list and I am going to take some of that big price on a hrse with a good chance (I stll like Comply or Die more though and with a very big chance i think)
Wacky who are your final 3? Cant wait to hear.
#181
March 3rd, 2008 00:38
Just looking at the list I added and mentioned that some horses didnt quite make the final list as they only had 2 runs so far. I mentioned Parsons Legacy as he will be running at Cheltenham but the other horses that also have 2 runs are;
Billyvoddan
Rule Supreme
Cornish Rebel
Mon Mome
Philson Run
Any of the above interest any of you?
#182
March 3rd, 2008 06:54
I can’t believe there are still some of you knowledgeable folks out there who think Cloudy Lane fits the profile of a GN winner. As Miinnehoma says, the last two 8 year olds to win were Party Politics (10-7 and a giant with it) and Bindaree (10-4). Cloudy will have to carry 10-11, he’s favourite, doesn’t stay and British too!
Looking back to the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last year, Parsons Legacy was 3/4L second to Cloudy, catching fast and now receives 7lb so even with a Cheltenham run this year has to be the more likely winner between the two.
But the outstanding bet is Comply or Die who I took yesterday at 25/1 with Coral.
Looking forward to your 3 Wacky.
#183
March 3rd, 2008 09:31
Systems man shocks us by speaking French.
Andrew says, that 14 out of the last 16 winners had previously run in a national.
Wacky says, is this a poor national.
With these 3 points in mind and the dates 1909 – 2008 sticking in the back of my mind for the last week and the fact that we do not seem to have a perfect match under 10st.-12, I would like to make a case for Butler’s Cabin.
Lets pretend he is Irish and 1 pound lighter. So, we have an Irish horse on 10-13, form -373. – good so far.
Now, what did he do last season and has he the class
In Nov. ’06 he was 7 lengths 4th. to Exotic Dancer.
In March he won the 4m. race at Chelt. with 12st.- undulating track with stiff uphill finish. A feat that the mighty Hedgehunter, Silver Birch and Point Barrow could not achieve. I have checked the last 20 winners of this race and he is the first French winner.
25 days later he wins the Irish national with 10-4, Cloudy Lane had 10-0. The difference this time will be only 2 pounds more.
To recap, we have an Irish horse on 10-13, who won last yrs. Irish national and the 4m. race at Chelt.
Would he not be near the top of our list or what.
But in reality he is 1 pound more and his National flag does not fit the trend – So, he is out the door -tout de suite.
Are we Wise or Mad ?
– am I mad, are they my feet, Drink, Girls, etc.
#184
March 3rd, 2008 10:55
The only mad one is the horse, Butler’s Cabin is a complete nut job of a horse. You never know what you are going to get! And then there is the trainer… as an ante-post backer of Exotic Dancer for the GC I can safely so I never intend to back another Jonjo horse ante-post ever again, and if the yard’s horses actually make it to the track they are hardly in sparkling form either. Butler’s is a horse in serious regression from all the form I’ve seen of him and I really wouldn’t advise backing any JJ runners with the current state of the yard.
The one I’ll be taking out of the weekends trials is Royal Auclair thought he ran a very creditable race at Newbury, top weight, clean jumping all the way round to finish third over 3m2f was finishing really strongly to nip past a couple on the run in. Backed him a couple of years ago at a big price E/W and he ran a blinder finishing second off top weight, this year he’s nearly a stone better off in the weights and available at a very backable E/W price to place. I’d certainly much rather him E/W to place at 50′s than back cloudy to win at 6′s!
#185
March 3rd, 2008 17:53
If its ok with everyone can i wait til 2mrw night to give my final 3?I want to make sure that all my selections make the next cut.Sorry to be a pain but i’ve already tipped a non runner in Sir Rembrandt.None of my selections will be running at cheltenham so this will be my final 3 tips.
#186
March 3rd, 2008 19:34
hi eveyone
kept quiet and listened for a few weeks now and it is great that we can all share views which is what makes the sport so great. i have a good record in the national and my short list is and will stay as already backed are comply or die at 40s
parsons legacy at 33s
naunton brook at 66s
simon at 33s
all backed each-way as i always do.
all the very best to you all what ever you back.
paulo
#187
March 3rd, 2008 20:35
Nobody seems to be saying much about Chelsea Harbour. I was quite impressed with the way he ran on at the end of his race yesterday and he does have previous form over 3 and a half miles. Does anyone else have him on their shortlist?
#188
March 3rd, 2008 23:02
Systems Man dropped a bombshell about Point Barrow arguably lacking the speed to win a Grand National (February 28). SM says a minimum TopSpeed of 128 is required. I thought this must be nonsense. How can a horse win the Irish Grand National (2006) without speed?
But, having scoured the stats, I agree.
Point Barrow is well off the pace in this department. In fact, looking at the Grand National results over the last few years, I’m yet to find a prominent finisher with such a relatively low TS rating of 102 (chase) or 105 (novice chase) prior to the race.
The horse’s TS is uncannily low.
The nearest profile I found was Innox who had slightly better ratings of 112 (chase) or 118 (novice chase) before he ran well in 2005 Grand National, coming seventh, 39 lengths behind Hedgehunter. But, you may remember Innox faded in the last half mile when Royal Auclair and Hedgehunter upped the pace, despite carrying significantly less weight.
While Point Barrow has many persuasive hallmarks of a would-be Grand National winner (enough for me to part with cash some weeks ago), I have serious doubts about him finishing at the right end of the top ten if the conditions are good. I hope I’m wrong.
Point Barrow’s best hope may be heavy going producing just a handful of finishers when stamina, jumping and good fortune take precedence over speed – Earth Summit (1998, six finishers), Miinnehoma (1994, six finishers) or Red Marauder (2001, four finishers).
In such conditions it’s almost a case of ‘last horse standing.’
#189
March 4th, 2008 17:26
Do we get to know the horses left after the first forfeit stage tomorrow?
#190
March 4th, 2008 17:43
Not too sure been checking this afternoon but cant find anything yet
#191
March 4th, 2008 18:49
Yeah no hurry Aintree website lol
In your own good time…zzzzzzz
#192
March 4th, 2008 19:21
Hi Guys,Just gone onto Betfair and betting is suspended so we should get news of runners left very soon.
#193
March 4th, 2008 20:44
Comply or Die is coming in for support and rightly so but does anyone know if it is going to run at Cheltenham. It is entered in the Kim Muir but if it runs it would be a negative for the national, in my opinion. What do you think?
#194
March 5th, 2008 12:12
I hope Comply Or Die doesn’t run at Cheltenham too!!
When are we getting the news about the first forfeit stage? It’s taking ages!
#195
March 5th, 2008 14:12
Well bet fair has re-opened there books but cant find out any details on Aintree website.
Bet fair has 125 runners left in
#196
March 5th, 2008 14:29
Now don’t say I’m not good to you all…
I found out that each day there is a cut in the National, the list is not released until 12 noon the next day.
New list should be up on Aintree website very shortly
#197
March 5th, 2008 14:32
Re Cloudy Lane. He has run within the past 2 seasons in races with “novice” in the title. I don’t have exact figures, but isn’t there stats which show that any horse which ran in novices in the last 2 seasons have never won the big one?
#198
March 5th, 2008 14:42
As I post this the only news so far is on the beeb’s website that the list of entries is now down to 125 and everything has risen 2 pounds because of Beef Or Salmon pulling out.
It only confirms that Celestial Gold is now top weight, but doesn’t currently provide a list of runners.
The Aintree site is taking ages, so we haven’t really learnt anything new as of yet
#199
March 5th, 2008 14:45
From what i have heard the following have pulled out:
Character building, nine de sivola, thisthatandtother, bothar na, turpin green, beef or salmoln, dom dorgeval, sir rembrandt, oodachee, dream alliance, nirvana de bourg, tom sayers, hear the echo, forget the past, baron windrush, our armegeddon, sea diva, foreman, lampion de bust, sixo, pass me by, roman ark, gardasee.
Not confirmed as of yet but thats what im hearing
#200
March 5th, 2008 14:48
link up now on site for cut…but doesn’t take u to anywhere…this is a joke!
#201
March 5th, 2008 15:00
Celestial heads National hopefuls
http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2008/0305/grandnational.html
Celestial Gold is the new top weight for the John Smith’s Grand National after a bumper field of 125 stood their ground following the first forfeit stage.
The weights have gone up 2lb following the defection of Beef Or Salmon putting Celestial Gold on 11st 12lb. His trainer David Pipe has a total of nine left in the Aintree marathon on 5 April, including Comply Or Die, Madison du Berlais and Over The Creek.
The leading fancies remain on course for the world’s greatest steeplechase headed by Cloudy Lane. The eight-year-old gelding, trained by Donald McCain Jnr, is 6-1 favourite with totesport following his emphatic victory in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster.
Last year’s runner-up McKelvey made his first appearance of the season in a hurdles race on the same card. His trainer Peter Bowen has the most entries remaining with 11, including last year’s John Smith’s Topham Chase winner Dunbrody Millar.
Slim Pickings, just behind McKelvey when a close third in last year’s National, was also in action over the weekend. Tom Taaffe’s nine-year-old gelding was fifth in a handicap chase at Gowran Park on Saturday.
Chelsea Harbour finished fourth in that race and Irish trainer Tom Mullins was happy with his eight-year-old’s performance.
He said: ‘Chelsea Harbour came out of his run over the weekend fine. Davy Russell dropped him out on that occasion and the ground ended up riding a bit faster than we thought it would, so he had to be ridden to hold his position.
‘He jumped really well on Sunday, and we think he jumps better on good ground. The weather has meant that we have had to race him on heavy for the most part of this season, but he has won on better ground over hurdles.
‘He’s got a couple of entries at Cheltenham and we’ll keep our options open, but the Grand National is our number one target.
Chelsea Harbour, set to carry 11st 2lb in the John Smith’s Grand National, is 25-1 with totesport.
Also among 31 Irish-trained entries is Snowy Morning and Willie Mullins’s charge is clear second favourite at 10-1 with totesport.
Mullins could also run 2005 National hero Hedgehunter, who finished ahead of Snowy Morning when chasing home Afistfullofdollars in the Bobbyjo Chase.
The 12-year-old, bidding to become the first dual winner of the world’s greatest chase since Red Rum, is currently 20-1.
Minehead trainer Philip Hobbs, who saddled the 2002 runner-up What’s Up Boys, has four horses remaining in this year’s renewal.
His best hope may be Parsons Legacy, who was second behind Cloudy Lane in last season’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham.
‘Monkerhostin, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk and Captain Corelli have all been left in the Grand National, said Hobbs.
Everything has been going fine since Parsons Legacy’s last run at Cheltenham and he will run in the Kim Muir at the Festival next week. Providing everything goes well there, then Aintree will be a strong possibility.
‘Monkerhostin will also run at Cheltenham, in the William Hill Trophy, and he could be another Grand National possible depending on how he gets on at the Festival.
‘Captain Corelli might not get in and if he couldn’t line up on the Saturday, he would probably run over the National fences in the John Smith’s Topham Chase on the Friday.
‘Boychuk will also run at Cheltenham, in either the William Hill Trophy or the Racing Post Plate, but he is another who could go to Aintree if he runs well at the Festival.’
Waiting for the full list.
#202
March 5th, 2008 15:08
Sporting Life
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/08/03/05/RACING_National.html
Celestial Gold is the new top weight for the John Smith’s Grand National after a bumper field of 125 stood their ground following the first forfeit stage.
The weights have gone up 2lb following the defection of Beef Or Salmon putting Celestial Gold on 11st 12lb.
His trainer David Pipe has a total of nine left in the Aintree marathon on April 5, including Comply Or Die, Madison du Berlais and Over The Creek.
The leading fancies remain on course for the world’s greatest steeplechase headed by Cloudy Lane.
The eight-year-old gelding, trained by Donald McCain Jnr, is 6-1 favourite with totesport following his emphatic victory in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster.
Last year’s runner-up McKelvey made his first appearance of the season in a hurdles race on the same card.
His trainer Peter Bowen has the most entries remaining with 11, including last year’s John Smith’s Topham Chase winner Dunbrody Millar.
Slim Pickings, just behind McKelvey when a close third in last year’s National, was also in action over the weekend. Tom Taaffe’s nine-year-old gelding was fifth in a handicap chase at Leopardstown on Sunday.
Chelsea Harbour finished fourth in that race and Irish trainer Tom Mullins was happy with his eight-year-old’s performance.
He said: “Chelsea Harbour came out of his run over the weekend fine. Davy Russell dropped him out on that occasion and the ground ended up riding a bit faster than we thought it would, so he had to be ridden to hold his position.
“He jumped really well on Sunday, and we think he jumps better on good ground.
“The weather has meant that we have had to race him on heavy for the most part of this season, but he has won on better ground over hurdles.
“He’s got a couple of entries at Cheltenham and we’ll keep our options open, but the Grand National is our number one target.”
Chelsea Harbour, set to carry 11st 2lb in the John Smith’s Grand National, is 25-1 with totesport.
Also among 31 Irish-trained entries is Snowy Morning and Willie Mullins’ charge is clear second favourite at 10-1 with totesport.
Mullins could also run 2005 National hero Hedgehunter, who finished ahead of Snowy Morning when chasing home Afistfullofdollars in the Bobbyjo Chase.
The 12-year-old, bidding to become the first dual winner of the world’s greatest chase since Red Rum, is currently 20-1.
Minehead trainer Philip Hobbs, who saddled the 2002 runner-up What’s Up Boys, has four horses remaining in this year’s renewal.
His best hope may be Parsons Legacy, who was second behind Cloudy Lane in last season’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham.
“Monkerhostin, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk and Captain Corelli have all been left in the Grand National,” said Hobbs.
“Everything has been going fine since Parsons Legacy’s last run at Cheltenham and he will run in the Kim Muir at the Festival next week. Providing everything goes well there, then Aintree will be a strong possibility.
“Monkerhostin will also run at Cheltenham, in the William Hill Trophy, and he could be another Grand National possible depending on how he gets on at the Festival.
“Captain Corelli might not get in and if he couldn’t line up on the Saturday, he would probably run over the National fences in the John Smith’s Topham Chase on the Friday.
“Boychuk will also run at Cheltenham, in either the William Hill Trophy or the Racing Post Plate, but he is another who could go to Aintree if he runs well at the Festival.”
Taaffe was pleased with the run of Slim Pickings at Leopardstown and confirmed him to be firmly on course for Aintree.
“I am happy with the way Slim Pickings has come out of the Leopardstown race ahead of Aintree and he is very good. I was pleased with the way he ran,” said Taaffe.
“He will go straight to the National now. He’s not better with cut in the ground – he prefers nice, genuine good ground.”
Paddy Power spokesman Paddy Power said: “Slim Pickings has been backed with us at 25-1 and 20-1 and I thought it was a highly creditable effort by him at Leopardstown.
“I would imagine two miles and five furlongs was probably not quite far enough for a horse whose last success came over three miles.”
Still waiting for the full list!!
#203
March 5th, 2008 15:27
Full list on aintree site now
#204
March 5th, 2008 18:28
THE 2008 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
From: Aintree
A bumper 125 acceptors, 19 more than at the same stage in 2007, have stood their ground in the £800,000 John Smith’s Grand National after the first forfeit stage for the world’s greatest chase, details of which are revealed today, Wednesday, March 5,
With 98 entries remaining in the handicap for the April 5 contest, the weights are now headed by Celestial Gold, winner of the John Smith’s Bowl at Aintree in April, 2006. The 10-year-old gelding is set to carry 11st 12lb in the four and a half mile event, following the defection of original top weight Beef Or Salmon. Trainer David Pipe has nine entries in total, including Comply Or Die, Madison du Berlais and Over The Creek.
*Weights raised by 2lb.
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
130/U1/-P3 CELESTIAL GOLD (IRE) 10-11-12 David Johnson David Pipe
2/500-P502 HEDGEHUNTER (IRE) 12-11-11 Trevor Hemmings Willie Mullins IRE
P-262514 HI CLOY (IRE) 11-11-11 Susan McCloy Michael Hourigan IRE
U-135P1 KNOWHERE (IRE) 10 -11-10 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
5/122-416 MR POINTMENT (IRE) 9-11-10 Stockton Heath Racing Paul Nicholls
5/U40-1644 OLLIE MAGERN 10-11-10 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
44R5-33 MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 11-11-09 Martin St Quinton Philip Hobbs
210P-P12 TURKO (FR) 6-11-09 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
03-4425 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 7-11-08 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe
3U/232/-00 RULE SUPREME (IRE) 12-11-07 John Fallon Willie Mullins IRE
513P-P4 BILLYVODDAN (IRE) 9-11-06 Trevor Hemmings Henry Daly
1121115 JOE LIVELY (IRE) 9-11-06 Richard Dimond Colin Tizzard
21B2132 KNIGHT LEGEND (IRE) 9-11-06 Lynn Wilson Jessica Harrington IRE
11F-52U4 SIMON 9-11-06 Mercy Rimell John Spearing
1120-1P OPERA MUNDI (FR) 6-11-05 Sir Robert Ogden Paul Nicholls
66-3632F2 UNGARO (FR) 9-11-05 Sir Robert Ogden Keith Reveley
r416F5P IRON MAN (FR) 7-11-04 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen
6P-24121 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 10-11-03 C Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
43011-303 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 8-11-02 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
F53-62S5 SLIM PICKINGS (IRE) 9-11-02 Doubtful Five Syndicate Tom Taaffe IRE
4P3F6514 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 8-11-01 Mrs Paul Duffin Tom Mullins IRE
400-01105 VODKA BLEU (FR) 9-11-01 David Johnson David Pipe
00-6300 L’AMI (FR) 9-11-00 J P McManus Francois Doumen FR
124-F1133 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 8-11-00 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
1-0010F5 ALEXANDER TAIPAN (IRE) 8-10-13 Noel O’Callaghan Willie Mullins IRE
P/420F-2P BEWLEYS BERRY (IRE) 10-10-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
2P0450- CONTRABAND 10-10-13 Fergus Wilson Paul Murphy
410612-0 MCKELVEY (IRE) 9-10-13 N Elliott Peter Bowen
P-20030 JOAACI (IRE) 8-10-12 David Johnson David Pipe
2-000040 POINT BARROW (IRE) 10-10-12 Mrs P Clune Hughes Patrick Hughes IRE
P0150P-22 CORNISH REBEL (IRE) 11-10-11 Halewood International Ltd Lisa Williamson
PP2-P014 D’ARGENT (IRE) 11-10-11 Nigel Bunter Alan King
30-434P NO FULL (FR) 7-10-11 Mrs P Doyle Eoin Doyle IRE
3-F106P0 BAILY BREEZE (IRE) 9-10-10 R Scott Mouse Morris IRE
522-360 BOB HALL (IRE) 7-10-10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neil
201U-5111 CLOUDY LANE 8-10-10 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
U22P-222 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 9-10-10 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE
422434-P3 MON MOME (FR) 8-10-10 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
132000 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 7-10-09 Mr & Mrs Peter Douglas Peter Bowen
026-2P0 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 9-10-09 Peter Hart Paul Nicholls
PP-10432 NAUNTON BROOK 9-10-09 David Langdon Nigel Twiston-Davies
0-231134 OVER THE CREEK 9-10-09 David Johnson David Pipe
5423-54 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 10-10-09 R Offer Philip Hobbs
U50P-0U PATSY HALL (IRE) 8-10-09 C Byrne Tony Martin IRE
6F-04U333 ROYAL AUCLAIR (FR) 11-10-09 Clive Smith Paul Nicholls
0211-U10 ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 9-10-09 Dunsany Racing Syndicate Tony Martin IRE
554-50626 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 9-10-09 Lucy Donegan Tom Taaffe IRE
FP/24/0-14 BACKBEAT (IRE) 11-10-08 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
6/4P/-0P21 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 9-10-08 David Johnson David Pipe
UU-20U50 IDLE TALK (IRE) 9-10-08 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
2P-4300F2 KELAMI (FR) 10-10-08 Halewood International Ltd Francois Doumen FR
11305-540 MILAN DEUX MILLE (FR) 6-10-08 Fergus & Judith Wilson David Pipe
3PF-013P NADOVER (FR) 7-10-08 Tony Hayward and Barry Fulton Charlie Mann
0-564420 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 9-10-07 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
11P-0P6 HOMER WELLS (IRE) 10-10-07 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE
1353262 PATMAN DU CHARMIL (FR) 6-10-07 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
1P6/04-2B PHILSON RUN (IRE) 12-10-07 Gale Force One Nick Williams
14-55P5 URSUMMAN (IRE) 9-10-07 J P McManus Niall Madden IRE
62-166P0 ARDAGHEY (IRE) 9-10-06 D & S Goodman Nigel Twiston-Davies
3-55034 BOYCHUK (IRE) 7-10-06 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
0F251P-06 DUN DOIRE (IRE) 9-10-06 Dunderry Racing Syndicate Tony Martin IRE
06/001P-U JOES EDGE (IRE) 11-10-06 Chemipetro Limited Ferdy Murphy
44-31P32 KILBEGGAN BLADE 9-10-06 K & Mrs A Doocey Tom George
113122 COOL RUNNING (IRE) 8-10-05 J P McManus Christy Roche IRE
10F0/16- DROMBEAG (IRE) 10-10-05 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
21-0PF0F DUNBRODY MILLAR (IRE) 10-10-05 Dundon Else Partnership Peter Bowen
43-63030 IN THE HIGH GRASS (IRE) 7-10-05 Mrs M Hally Tom Taaffe IRE
146/0/10- LONGSHANKS 11-10-05 Alan Halsall Kim Bailey
312/452-6 OSSMOSES (IRE) 11-10-05 Don Forster Don Forster
P-2UU461 LE DUC (FR) 9-10-04 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
U0-6000 LIVINGSTONEBRAMBLE (IRE) 12-10-04 Favourites Racing Willie Mullins IRE
65-2FP0FU MERDEKA (IRE) 8-10-04 Maurice Clifford Tom Taaffe IRE
3/02-223 PAK JACK (FR) 8-10-04 The Bellflower Pak Jack Partnership Richard Phillips
3542-4P THEATRE KNIGHT (IRE) 10-10-04 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
1650PPP BALLYCASSIDY (IRE) 12-10-03 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen
141-1F4P BLUE SPLASH (FR) 8-10-03 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Peter Bowen
P/14P-6P BOB BOB BOBBIN 9-10-03 Sarah Tizzard Colin Tizzard
P/013/-625 CAPTAIN CORELLI 11-10-03 Patrick Bancroft Philip Hobbs
P12/-P225P ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 10-10-03 Martin St Quinton & Peter Deal Oliver Sherwood
U0-106146 IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 9-10-03 Caroline Beresford-Wylie Nigel Twiston-Davies
11F2-00P LOULOU NIVERNAIS (FR) 9-10-03 Mrs A Heayns Nigel Hawke
3P-5P134 NEWBAY PROP (IRE) 9-10-03 Bill Moffett Tony Martin IRE
330-1111 RISK ACCESSOR (IRE) 13-10-03 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
110-3320 BANNISTER LANE 8-10-02 Shaw Hill Golf Club(Sage Cott Props Ltd) Donald McCain Jnr
1F-0406 GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 9-10-02 J P McManus Tom Taaffe IRE
122-5055 LANKAWI 6-10-02 Jill Day Peter Bowen
60F0U0 TOMMY SPAR 8-10-02 Ralph Morgans Peter Bowen
4312-34 WHISPERED SECRET (GER) 9-10-02 David Manasseh David Pipe
12-P4P13 BALLYFOY (IRE) 7-10-01 M George Tom George
F60P00-3 INNOX (FR) 12-10-01 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
053U3P- SWEET DIVERSION (IRE) 9-10-01 Ian Marshall Evan Williams
P0P0-0052 TAKE THE STAND (IRE) 12-10-01 David Robbins & Frank Ridge Peter Bowen
621P1F/-P YOU’RE SPECIAL (USA) 11-10-01 Diane O’ Rourke Ferdy Murphy
0/1P061/-0 FUSTRIEN DU PAON (FR) 12-10-00 Fergus Wilson Richard Chotard FR
6P-6FP23 LEADING MAN (IRE) 8-10-00 Mrs C McKeane Ferdy Murphy
P62P-P4P NITRAT (FR) 7-10-00 Peter Hans Vogt Francois Doumen FR
123112- NOIR ET VERT (FR) 7-10-00 Plantation Stud Ferdy Murphy
323-0P3P PREACHER BOY 9-10-00 Hunt & Co (Bournemouth) Ltd Ron Hodges
415/-2P0 AZULEJO (FR) 10-9-13 J Wilson & T Wilson Michael Scudamore
3110-PP2 FLINTOFF (USA) 7-9-13 Andrew Flintoff & Paul Beck Venetia Williams
200-563 FLYING ENTERPRISE (IRE) 8-9-13 Malcolm Edwards Evan Williams
231453P IRISH WOLF (FR) 8-9-13 The Hacking Partnership Peter Bowen
20-0340P BROOKLYN BREEZE (IRE) 11-9-12 Ashleybank Investments Limited Len Lungo
2/1F-1SF NOT LEFT YET (IRE) 7-9-12 David Johnson David Pipe
41200220 BURNTOAKBOY 10-9-11 Dr Richard & Laura Newland Dr Richard Newland
0/04P60- NATIVE JACK (IRE) 14-9-11 G Burke/R Bagnall/N O’Farrell/K Sexton Philip Rothwell IRE
2460-425 OSCAR INDIA (IRE) 9-9-10 A Burns Henry de Bromhead IRE
1120-0P MALETTON (FR) 8-9-09 Malcolm Edwards Evan Williams
P0P-53PP5 ROYAL ROSA (FR) 9-9-09 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
PPU-043P THE OUTLIER (IRE) 10-9-09 P Murphy Venetia Williams
4232/-41 BEANTOWN (IRE) 10-9-07 Eoin Barry Sean Aherne IRE
2003FP MODEL SON (IRE) 10-9-07 P J Hughes Developments Ltd Paul Blockley
F0030-302P ANOTHER RUM (IRE) 10-9-05 Ronnie Lilley John Weymes
F0-45U1 MCEVOY (IRE) 8-9-05 Phil Cunningham Evan Williams
U/1431-5P BOSHAM MILL 10-9-04 Mark Gichero Brendan Powell
31-4UP66 SILVER JACK (IRE) 10-9-04 Mrs J Batey Martin Todhunter
6P-061106 VICTORY GUNNER (IRE) 10-9-04 Ron Bartlett & F Ayres Craig Roberts
501/-P50P FINAL ACT (IRE) 12-9-03 George Ross John Murphy IRE
4PP02PP MR ED (IRE) 10-9-03 Gwilym Morris Peter Bowen
P165FP0 JUFUL TENNIS (FR) 11-9-02 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR
3-61520 HENRY’S PRIDE (IRE) 8-9-00 P J Hughes Developments Ltd Alison Thorpe
12/122/-4 TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (IRE) 12-9-00 John French Tom George
0126556 SECRETOFSHAMBHALA (IRE) 9-8-13 Michael McGinley Tom Mullins IRE
500P-610 WONDERKID 8-8-13 Bill Moffett Tony Martin IRE
4P-24314 BENGO (IRE) 8-8-11 Willsford Racing Incorporated Ben De Haan
125 entries remain at March 4 forfeit stage
31 Irish-trained entries
5 French-trained entries
THE FOLLOWING 25 HORSES WERE REMOVED AT THE MARCH 4 FORFEIT STAGE: BEEF OR SALMON (IRE), TURPIN GREEN (IRE), FORGET THE PAST, FOREMAN (GER), THISTHATANDTOTHER (IRE), DREAM ALLIANCE, DOM D’ORGEVAL (FR), ROMAN ARK, SIR REMBRANDT (IRE), NINE DE SIVOLA (FR), CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE), BARON WINDRUSH, NIRVANA DU BOURG (FR), TOM SAYERS (IRE), LAMPION DU BOST (FR), MAJADAL (FR), BOTHAR NA (IRE), OODACHEE, ST MATTHEW (USA), OUR ARMAGEDDON (NZ), PASS ME BY, SEA DIVA (IRE), SIXO (IRE), HEAR THE ECHO (IRE), GARDASEE (GER)
Latest Tote prices:
6 CLOUDY LANE, 10 SNOWY MORNING, 14 BEWLEYS BERRY, 14 BUTLER’S CABIN, 16 MR POINTMENT, 16 POINT BARROW, 16 SIMON, 16 SLIM PICKINGS, 20 COMPLY OR DIE, 20 HEDGEHUNTER, 20 McKELVEY, 20 TURKO, 25 CHELSEA HARBOUR, 25 KNOWHERE, 25 PARSONS LEGACY, 28 UNGARO, 33 DUN DOIRE, 33 FLINTOFF, 33 JOE LIVELY, 33 JOES EDGE, 33 KELAMI, 33 MADISON DU BERLAIS, 33 NEWBAY PROP, 33 OSSMOSES, 33 OVER THE CREEK, 33 PHILSON RUN, 33 ROYAL COUNTY STAR, 33 VODKA BLEU, 40 D’ARGENT, 40 DROMBEAG, 40 IDLE TALK, 40 IRISH RAPTOR, 40 KING JOHNS CASTLE, 40 MON MOME, 40 MONKERHOSTIN, 40 NAUNTON BROOK, 40 NOIR ET VERT, 40 OPERA MUNDI, 40 PATSY HALL, 40 RULE SUPREME,
Others 50 or more
P.S I still like:
6/4P/-0P21 Comply of Die to win (correct trends and price)! 20/1
My other selections are also in!
5423-54 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 10-10-09 25/1
2P-4300F2 KELAMI (FR) 10-10-08 33/1
PP2-P014 D’ARGENT (IRE) 11-10-11 40/1
#205
March 5th, 2008 18:56
Cloudy Lane is now rated 161 in races outside of the Grand National. He has 10st 10lbs.
Hedgehunter came 2nd in the National off a rating of 156. He had 11st 12lbs.
Cloudy Lane is 20lbs well in at the weights. Now I know he has his doubters but purely from a handicap perspective he has to have an excellent chance.
#206
March 5th, 2008 19:50
Hi Guys,Sorry im late with my final 3 but i only just found the latest Decs.
1st D’ARGENT Fits all the stats that matter.(Not worried about it being grey and wearing blinkers)
2nd NAUNTON BROOK Its won a £26,000 chase which was a grade 3.That would have been a grade 2 a few years ago.This horse has run some fantastic races in defeat.
3rd SIMON Fits all stats apart from carrying over 11st but a horse that is carrying that weight always seems to get a placed.
#207
March 5th, 2008 21:22
Wacky I am glad we agree about D’Argent (but will he run – I hope he does and will now take a price with a small bet and maybe more after we know more about his plans.
But Simon!
11F-52U4 SIMON 9-11-06
Wacky he is 11.06 – no chance in my book.
NAUNTON BROOK is a good each way bet.
Now what do other people think give us your three or four against the field and why?
#208
March 5th, 2008 22:10
Some good contenders there Wacky and Systems Man.
My few against the field are….
1. Cloudy Lane – Absolutely thrown in at the weights now he is rated 161 outside of the National. Seems to have speed and class and travels supremely well in his races. Hails from a stable steeped in Grand National history and this has been the aim all season for this horse. Will skip Cheltenham and has to be the main danger to any other horse in the field. Possibly too short to back at the current odds but if anyone has 10/1 or higher on him then you should be pleased. Excellent claims.
2. Comply Or Die – Another one now rated far higher than his National rating. Carried a huge burden of 11st 12lbs when winning the Eider over 4m 1f and did it with some style. Runner-up in a Sun Alliance at Cheltenham, which shows his class. Has tactical speed and will hopefully be the prefered choice of Timmy Murphy. It should also be noted he will be 4lbs better off at the weights with Cloudy Lane on their running earlier in the season. Another with big claims at a very decent price.
3. Point Barrow – Maybe his best chance was last year when he crashed out at the first fence but I have always held a soft spot for this horse. He possibly won’t have the speed when push comes to shove but is a winner of an Irish National and a Pierse Chase. Has a similar profile to the recent Irish winners of this race and I just have a feeling the National has been the only race on connections minds since last year’s disappointment. This may explain his poor form of late and maybe it’s been a case of keeping him ticking over until April. A big race could be on the cards as you do feel this is his last chance to win. Solid claims on his best form.
I’m sure some will agree with what I’ve said and some won’t. I guess atleast one of us will be smiling at around 4:30pm on April 5th. This race throws up such debate and discussion and I’m pleased I’ve been able to get other well valued opinion this year. Well done to everyone that has made and contributed to this blog!
#209
March 5th, 2008 23:00
Hi System man,The reason i gave SIMON is that I cant see past my 1st two selections and wanted to give a good e-w bet. I found out on a Betfair forum that the last 20 winners of the national have been placed 7th or better on its last run.This is why Point Barrow is not on my shortlist anymore.Also i cant have Comply or Die as im sure the winner of the EIDER chase has not won the national.As for CLOUDY LANE i’ve backed the horse at 20/1,16/1 & 12/1 and will lay some off on the day as i dont know what to make of the form figures!!!Good Luck Everyone
#210
March 5th, 2008 23:15
Hello folks – im going to work on the strong trend that 9 of the last 10 winners have previously contested either a welsh, irish or english grand national –
That leaves my shortlist at:
Chelsea Harbour -IRISH
Point barrow – IRISH
Royal Auclair GRAND NAT
Mon Mome – WELSH
Cloudy Lane – IRISH
Over the Creek = WELSH (
I reckon the winner will come from this sextet. Does anyone know if over the creek is being considered for Aintree ??
#211
March 6th, 2008 02:30
In one of his books Mathematician(David Duncan) says rule out any on your short list which was not placed 1,2,or3 in a ‘chase of 31/4 mls+ THIS season! Any stats on this one lads(or lasses)?
#212
March 6th, 2008 14:57
I’ll give my 4 against the field then:
1. Parsons Legacy – fits more or less all the trends and carrying a decent weight. The worry being that it will run Cheltenham and will have only had 3 prep races, but has been placed in the Scottish National before.
2. Cloudy Lane – I think you only have to look at above posts as to see why. You’d have to be a very bold/foolish man to say this doesn’t have a great chance
3. Naunton Brook – looked superb when leading the field last year. Has to be a consideration for an e/w bet.
4. Comply Or Die – a great performance in the Eider. Carrying a favourable weight and trained by David Pipe
(I realise some of these have been heavily mentioned, but I think these 4 have great claims in the race)
#213
March 6th, 2008 15:04
For what is worth here is my final list after a third and final check. It should be noted that there is still time for the odd horse to enter the list if they run again (Cornish Rebel 2 runs, Mon Mome 2 runs, Royal County St 3 runs, Philson Run 2 runs but in most cases will still be one short of the best profile which is 4 min prep races).
I have excluded any horse which is now 50/1 or more with the big high Street bookmakers (Quoted between 25/1 and 40/1 in the anti post market 8/10 trend)
1. Comply Of Die. Coral 25/1 (get it fast it will soon go!)
2. D’Argent 40/1
3. Parsons Legacy 25/1(ONLY if he is is 1,2 or 3rd in his next race, he will still be one prep race short).
Cloudy Lane can win the GN but its profile looks wrong – too many wins (yet to win that season 8/10 trend, only one had won more than once). Would be aiming for 4 in a row! A win is not a problem in my book but two or more is!
Excluded but keep an eye on them – the profle can still change!
Mon Mome – 2 runs only
Cornish Sett – price to high 66/1 (Lad)
Naunton Brook – price too high (66/1 (Lad)
Royal Auclair – price too high (66/1 Lad)
Kelami – price a bit too high (being quoted by more tha one internet bookmaker at 66/1)
Stange I can find only the two horses that stand out + possibly Parsons Legacy if we bend the trend rule book a bit. Perhaps Cloudly Lane will win after all or btter still one of my two will win?
Simon on 11.06 – no chance!
Will do another check a lot closer to the GN when when can see th treees from the wood.
Top Tip waht ever you are backing take a little of the 25/1 on Comply or Die NOW (it will drop in price big time nearer the GN)!
#214
March 6th, 2008 18:05
I backed Comply ro Die at 95′s on Betfair so hoping it wins! I was at work today and I think the stars are trying to tell me something. Clients of mine called Mr Parsons and another called Mr G D Argent!!! Is someone trying to tell me something or what!! I will advise of my final 3 very shortly. I’m looking at all the races that the 29 that fit the 10/10 trends have ran in. I will post them on here shortly.
#215
March 6th, 2008 20:50
I will be going through all the stats again this weekend, just in case one horse jumps out at me. At the moment, my 4 against the field are:-
PARSONS LEGACY (backed at 33/1) – very good on the trends, just wish it had run in the last week or two instead of going to Cheltenham.
POINT BARROW (backed at 22/1) – I agree with a previous comment that last yr might have been his chance, but still loooks quite good on the trends.
OSSMOSES (backed at 33/1) – Controversial choice maybe as trends this yr don’t quite stack up, but he was my main hope last yr before I got on Silver Birch and I have a sneaky feeling he could run into a place.
BEWLEYS BERRY (backed at 16/1) – this one I will have to revisit. I’m not sure 16/1 was a good price but can only think he must have met a lot of the stats to get in my list of 4!
Look forward to hearing other selections.
#216
March 6th, 2008 21:36
I think the key to this years National is – Nine De Sivola –
and also Silver Birch breaking the previous 10yr. trend on prep runs(5-6)with only 4 runs.
My 4 horses are -
Parsons Legacy
Parsons Legacy
Parsons Legacy
Parsons Legacy
#217
March 6th, 2008 23:16
Just had a look at the weights and feel confident that nothing above D’ARGENT or below COMPLY OR DIE will win the national.So stick to the stats for the last 10yrs and you should be left with 4 horses at most and having at least 4 runs at least is a very big stat.So im sorry minnehoma -Parsons Legacy will not win!!!
#218
March 6th, 2008 23:37
Wacky said “nothing above D’ARGENT or below COMPLY OR DIE will win the national.So stick to the stats for the last 10yrs and you should be left with 4 horses at most and having at least 4 runs at least is a very big stat”.
I agree on the whole with a small get out clause as follows:
4 runs is the CURRENT Trend for 10 years – it would not however be a major change in the trends for a winner with only three prep races(trends do change slightly over the years) provided they have all the other major trends.
#219
March 7th, 2008 09:15
Hello to you all.I’m a massive National fan and have followed stats in the race for twenty five years. Basically, lots of thngs changed in 1990 when fences were modified and then from the 2000 race the handicapper has started to compress the handicap which has resulted in more horses carrying big weight in to the frame from 2000 – 2007 than from 1990 – 1999. No horse has carried more than twelve pounds above bottom weight to victory(Papillon carried this in 2000)since Rhyme n Reason carried 11st in 1988 and that really is what I’m saying. Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb in 2005 but bottom weight was 10st 5lbs = 10lbs more than bottom weight. In all likelihood the bottom weight in this year’s National will be somewhere between Boychuk and Longshanks so the bottom weight will carry 10st 5lbs and 10st 6lbs. This means that from, Opera Mundi down to Snowy Morning, horses carrying , possibly, between 11st 5lbs and 11st will be carrying less than a stone more than bottom weight and so should not be discounted.
#220
March 7th, 2008 10:34
I just cant see Cloudy lane winning and at them odds i wouldnt put any money on it. I would rather try and pick a horse for a decent each way value, and the one that is catching my eye at the moment is Cornish Rebel i think its way over priced at 100/1
#221
March 7th, 2008 13:53
WEIGHTS or OR Rating?
Look at it another way crisp 73 Weights V OR Rating. its a lot easier to take the OR rating which automaticaly gives you the weight winning weight.
All winners for the last 10 years have had an OR (given on weights day in Feb)OR between 136 to 147. If we exclude 1998 its OR 136 to 144.
See below:
2007 138(OR) 10.06(weight) 33/1 price
2006 138 10.08 11/1
2005 144 11.01 7/1F
2004 139 10.10 16/1
2003 139 10.07 16/1
2002 136 10.04 20/1
2001 140 10.11 33/1
2000 139 10.12 10/1
1999 142 10.00 10/1
1998 147 10.05 7/1
Forget the weigt think OR!
This means that we are looking for the winner between OR 138 (10.07, under this is unlikley to make the cut) and )OR 144 (10.13 having excluded anything on 11.00 or over.
Wacky is right the winner will be between (I have extend his list slightly each end)
TOP
JOAACI on 10.12 OR 143
AND BOTTOM
NADOVER on 10.08 OR 139
The horses currently four or more prep runs in this section AND:
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
+
RPR of 144 or above (in any tye of Chase during racing career) – this is a 10/10 trend
TS of 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) – this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
5* POSSIBLIIES TO WIN GN
D’ARGENT 10.11
BAILY BREEZE 10.10
CLOUDY LANE 10.10
NAUNTON BROOK 10.09
ROYAL AUCLAIR 10.09
COMPLY OR DIE 10.08
KELAMI 10.08
THOSE WITH THREE RUNS (TIME FOR ONE MORE SO KEEP AY EYE THEM) ARE)
CORNISH SETT
#222
March 7th, 2008 14:23
Now im confused.
You say that the OR has to be between 138 and 144 on weights day and then say that this equates to 10:07 to 10:13 and then go on to say that leaves it between horses from Joacci to Nadover.
These horses are only carry this weight due to the weights rising after the first dec stage.
So should the winner not be coming from horses who were allocated between 10:07 to 10:13 on weights day??
#223
March 7th, 2008 14:55
Can I query the top speed for Baily Breeze? I dont think it is 128 if you check Racing Post
#224
March 7th, 2008 17:21
I’m a little suprised that Royal Auclair hasn’t had more of a mention. Most agree he has the right profile except for the half French bit. Back in the 2005 GN Royal Auclair was second as an 8 year old and had to shoulder 11-10, a full 15 lbs more than this year. 66/1 are great odds for such a classy horse and should be an each way bet at least. Does anybody have another negative except being born to a French mother?
#225
March 7th, 2008 19:02
Thanks Dan you are right Baily Breeze has a best TS of 112 and a RPR of 142 – take him off the list(goes to show we must all double check everything! The second mistake I have made after the one with Point Barrow TS rating – but hey there were 125 to check this week!
The list now reads:
5* POSSIBLIIES TO WIN GN
D’ARGENT 10.11
CLOUDY LANE 10.10
NAUNTON BROOK 10.09
ROYAL AUCLAIR 10.09
COMPLY OR DIE 10.08
KELAMI 10.08
THOSE WITH THREE RUNS (TIME FOR ONE MORE SO KEEP AY EYE THEM) ARE)
CORNISH SETT
Brian just to claify/weight the OR thing.
The winning OR is 136 to 144 (excluding 1998 which was 147)
So on weight day we would be looking at all horse with
138 (136 and 137 will not make the cut)
10.05 NOW 10.07
to
146
10.13 NOW 11.01
BUT I have excluded any horse now carrying above 10.13, OR 144 (only once in ten years has a horse carried 11.00 or over which was 2005 OR 144 11.01). Yes if you want to play safe inclde horses up to OR 146 NOW 11.01 but I dont think any fit the trends listed below)
The top weight to fit the main trends (listed below)is D’Argent OR 142 NOW on 10.11 and the lowest is Kelami OR 139 NOW on 10.08. So Wacky is right the winner will be found between these two horses (20 in total) but only six fit the main trends listed below (I hope this now makes evrything clear).
Trends:
ONE
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
TWO
RPR of 144 or above (in any tye of Chase during racing career) – this is a 10/10 trend
TS of 128 or above (in a Chase during racing career) – this is a 9/10 trend (and 10/10 for all horses who race times were measured consistently).
THREE
OR 138 to 144 (under 11.00 and in the cut)
5* POSSIBLIIES TO WIN GN
D’ARGENT 10.11
CLOUDY LANE 10.10
NAUNTON BROOK 10.09
ROYAL AUCLAIR 10.09
COMPLY OR DIE 10.08
KELAMI 10.08
THOSE WITH THREE RUNS – only Cornish Sett
If I have made any more mistakes let me know.
COMPLY OR DIE 10.08
D’ARGENT 10.11
Look very good to me.
#226
March 7th, 2008 20:05
I am worried D’argent will run elsewhere guys, his price hasn’t shortened
many of us have concluded he’s got a great chance of winning!
and you would expect the odds to reflect this
I hope they take their chance at Aintree this time
any news from the yard wacky?
#227
March 7th, 2008 20:52
I may have put this request in the wrong place so I’ll try again. In David Duncan’s books he states that one of the most powerful stats is to exclude from your short list any horse which has not been1,2 or 3rd in a ‘chase of at least 3 1/4 mls. IN THE CURRENT SEASON!!
Do any of you have opinions on this stat??
#228
March 7th, 2008 22:15
Neil ” In David Duncan’s books he states that one of the most powerful stats is to exclude from your short list any horse which has not been1,2 or 3rd in a ‘chase of at least 3 1/4 mls. IN THE CURRENT SEASON!!
WRONG!!
All winners have been placed 1,2 or 3rd in a prep race since August. The distance is not important (but note they have all won over at least three miles in a Chase at some time).
5 from 10 were 25f or more when coming 1, 2 or 3rd in GN winning year (since August)
5 from 10 were 24f or less (2006,2003, 2001, 2000, 1999)when coming 1, 2 or 3rd in the GN winning year (since August)
Its the 1, 2 or 3rd that appears essential in the winning year not the distance.
#229
March 7th, 2008 22:56
To Neil,
Stat for the current season.
Your question requires some homework but I know if you followed Mr. Duncan’s stat for the ’06 and ’05 National you would have missed – no.6 Valverde and – Hedgehunter.
#230
March 8th, 2008 09:50
Hi guys,No news on D’ARGENT as yet but its good news that it was left in on the 4th March.Its price has gone down 30pts on Betfair so things are looking good as Betfair is a great guide.
Good luck at CHELTENHAM everyone and hope you bash the bookies.Think ALAN KING will have some good winners as Blazing Bailey,Group Captain,VPU and Franchoek look to have outstanding chances.
#231
March 8th, 2008 13:53
I’m really tempted to take the current price on offer for D’Argent (40/1).
His profile is arguably the strongest and there are many other positive factors, such as the impeccable marathon breeding, liking for left-land courses, his ‘Indian Summer’ thanks to blinkers, winning form in bustling fields.
But I’m worried that Alan King and/or the owners may bottle it, thinking the horse’s jumping will let him down. With possible retirement on the horizon, they may also consider protecting the horse.
He’s far from fluent jumping but seems to be able to get away with most mistakes. Only one fall in 18 chases, although bad jumping cost D’Argent the chance of the Midlands National in 2005.
Of course, it’s not easy to get away with clattering Aintree’s fences, although Red Rum and Miinnehoma are two I can think of who recovered from bad jumps at Becher’s before going on to win.
King’s latest quote suggested Aintree was probable (due to his improved form and jumping in the last two races, especially Warwick in January) and I notice D’Argent is not yet entered elsewhere prior to Liverpool.
Is the next forfeit stage March 18? What price D’Argent after that if he’s still in? On the day I can see him being towards the head of the betting market if he runs. Who’d be a punter?
Decisions, decisions, decisions…
#232
March 8th, 2008 13:57
Why has nobody mentioned OVER THE CREEK i know he does not fit many of the stats and still technically a novice but he’s in good form and was 3rd in the welsh nat. david pipe said he may not run him at cheltenham and aim him for the nat.i’m glad nobodys mentioned him as i’m on him at everything from 50s to 250s on betfair .if he pulls it off i’ll be spending the summer on a beach in Barbados!
#233
March 8th, 2008 18:55
Johnny Valentine
I think you have to risk it a bit. I’ve got 50% of what I want on now (40/1) and the rest later at least after March 18th. Its a 55/5O chance but I have a fuuny feeling they will let him run – wouldnt you?
I would be happy to lose a small bet (if he does not run) for the 40/1 on a great trends horse than have to take a much shorter price later.
#234
March 9th, 2008 13:14
Hi Texas pete – i tend to agree with your over the creek analysis .david pipe suggested on fri that this horse may bypass chelts now and head straight for aintree . hes been third in what i reckon is the best national trial for aintree – the welsh grand nat — horses who have won placed at chepstow include – hedgehunter,bindaree,silver birch,minnehoma,earth summit,party politics,corbiere – so hows about it systems man ?- what chance over the creek springing a surprise or are we up the proverbial creek here..
i see his only failing as less than ten chase runs…if anybody can bend stats its the pipe team!…
#235
March 9th, 2008 23:01
Reply to texas pete and SILVER BIRCH
OVER THE CREEK
Ran is a NOV Chase this season NOV 2007 and Feb 2008(very, very bad trend.)
Only run eight Chases (needs 10)
Only won two Chases (needs three)
Only run in two Han chases (this would be a new low record in the last ten years I think)- very bad!
PRP just 144 (twice) just the bare minimum
Its not looking good is it?
Texas Pete said “if he pulls it off i’ll be spending the summer on a beach in Barbados:!
Sorry mate you will be lucky to get a day trip to blackpool as the trends say he cant win!!
#236
March 11th, 2008 00:47
Parsons Legacy is NOT running at Cheltenham this week. This means his only real weakness (in my eyes) is the fact that he has only had the 2 runs. I can see him winning the National and the trends just being altered next yr to show “between 2 and 6 runs” or something similar.
Systems Man – anything I have overlooked re Parsons Legacy? I’m on at 33s…
#237
March 11th, 2008 18:35
so what do we make of the cross country race today?
not impressed with my outside national tips Royal Auclair and Kilbeggan Blade, had a few quid on Le Duc in this one, he is also in the GN at what looked like a massive price. All three worryingly ran out of steam after being thereabouts, all beaten by another 14 year old out of Be My Native…Native Jack (2nd) any native offspring in the GN? complete rethink here
#238
March 11th, 2008 19:03
KJ – Ive also got royal auclair and kilbeggan blade on my outsider list for the nat. think royal auclair ran quite well on ground im sure doesnt really suit him . not so good from the blade and id be worried now for him . i though mon mome was the most eyecatching performance of all . ran a very strange race indeed in the william hill trophy . got quite far behind without the jockey being too hard on him and then stayed on from a different county to finish 6th …i reckon mon mome is the national dark horse especially if they get one more run into him
#239
March 11th, 2008 20:19
Lets hope for my sake your wrong systems man OVER THE CREEK runs at chelts tomorrow,d pipe’s decided to give him a go,an eye-catching run could make you change your mind.
I’m also on point barrow,d’argent and black appalachi at meaty prices on betfair so all is not lost but i think snowy morning and cloudy lane are the ones to beat now
#240
March 11th, 2008 22:47
Stats Man
Question: “anything I have overlooked re Parsons Legacy”?
Answer: No. My money was on a long time ago. I did say early on that trends do chnage slighlty over the years so the trend for 4 to 6 runs could change as you say next year to 3 or even 2 prep runs (but 2 prep runs only is a weekness in this years trends clearly for this horse!). This would not be as radical change in the trends such as the obvious requirement to have won over 24f or PRP of 144 (min) or TS of 128 (where a horse has had most runs timed), won a chase worth at least £17,000, weight 11.05 or under etc.
Texas Pete “snowy morning and cloudy lane are the ones to beat now” I dont think! So altougth Cloudy Lane could win on trends as I have said before the profile is most odd (going for 4 wins in a row)
I still like Comply or Die
#241
March 12th, 2008 02:59
yeah, thank god for Comply or die!!!
and pray t god D’argent is allowed to take his chance!
who said he was a bit of a dodgy jumper a while back,
did you see some of the GN entries jumping performances today!
Silver Birch – I didn’t see Mon Momes race today sounds like a
good schooling style prep run, just saw the C4 highlights he was
definately being protected and looking good.
Alot of french breds caught my eye this year, one will win soon!!!
Maybe not the one I decided to plump for, Royal Auclair like you,
not happy after today esp. with some of his jumping
but not losing the faith completely thanks birchy!
#242
March 12th, 2008 03:00
Stats man/Systems man – I agree Parsons Legacy is a leading fancy but has he really the profile to win? OK, he’s only had two prep races, not a large divergence, but still an anomaly. However, the fact that he’s not entered for another race is a bigger issue. Looking back to 1990, no horse has won without an outing over the previous 50 days. That’s two negatives so unless he runs again shortly I just can’t see him getting anything other than a place.
Does anybody know for sure whether he will go directly to Aintree or not?
As far as I can see Comply or Die is the only horse without a ? by the side of his name.
#243
March 12th, 2008 09:31
Hi Kj – looks like we are both on a very similar wavelength here – hope we get it right ! – my final 6 against the field are as follows and i have backed them accordingly…
point barrow
dargent
comply or die
royal auclair
mon mome
cloudy lane.
lets keep our fingers xd that one of the lads above can prevail on the day…!
great blog site admin – any thoughts on creating one for the derby ! …
#244
March 12th, 2008 14:04
To recap I’ve backed
D’argent
Comply or Die
Mckelvey
Royal Auclair
Kilbeggan Blade
I love a few long shots, one of the reasons I haven’t backed Cloudy Lane
will probably back 2 more as don’t want t back 6
like last year when I lost for the first time in 8 years.
Which 2 tho?
Not feelin the luck at the moment hope its not like last year
when all 4 were on my list of 10 and I picked the other 6.
To be honest I wouldn’t mind seeing old Hedgehunter flying past
a line of my horses to win as long as I’ve got all the places sewn up!
#245
March 12th, 2008 15:50
I’m just about to start going through my own annual checks. To start off I’ve left anything under 10st 5lb out of the equation as I don’t think anything below this mark will get in this year. Anyone else agree or disagree?
Osmoses on 10.5 already needs 30 to drop out above it to get a run.
#246
March 12th, 2008 17:13
KJ – hi, you just mentioned McKelvey which I’ve been waiting for!
I got on ‘comply or die’ and ‘D’argent’ a while ago,so please don’t think I’m too idiotic, but I just can’t shake McKelvey out of my head.
Anybody have any thoughts about him at all? Doesn’t matter if they’re negative. thanks
#247
March 13th, 2008 14:53
Have you still discounted OVER THE CREEK after that run at Chelts SYSTEMS MAN he jumped like a stag and only just failed, very impressive carrying 12 stone over 4 miles.Only carrying 10-9 in the nat.now down to 20s and 25s with some bookies
#248
March 13th, 2008 15:41
Guys – some interesting developments on the point barrow situation – he has been entered for a chase at down royal at the weekend . could it be pat hughes now realises that the horse needs one more run and has to finish in the first 3 for any chance of aintree glory.? .. interesting…
#249
March 13th, 2008 21:36
Texas Pete “OVER THE CREEK after that run at Chelts SYSTEMS MAN he jumped like a stag and only just failed, very impressive carrying 12 stone over 4 miles”.
That’s the point he has just run his heart out over 4 miles over a tougth course 3weeks before the GN!Still only the two wins texas! remember trends, trends, trends.
Had a great day with a couple of Cheltenham bets, Albertas Run + Inglis Drever all my GN bets now paid for a and a free bet on the Gold Cup tomorrow!
#250
March 13th, 2008 22:25
Over The Creek was very tired at the end of his race and seemed to slow up. He cannot be considered for the National in my eyes.
Interesting news about Point Barrow. He is also entered for the Irish National. I hope connections don’t bottle Aintree and go to Fairyhouse instead.
#251
March 14th, 2008 14:24
Silver birch ran 2nd over 3m7f at cheltenham before the nat last year and we all know what happened on the big day but i’ll admit OVER THE CREEK did look tired but then again he was carrying 12st,i still think he has a chance
#252
March 14th, 2008 17:43
Everyone is entitled to their opinion Texas Pete and I’d be the first to congratulate you in he does win. That’s what makes this game so vibrant, everyone has their own idea of the winner!
Denman’s joint owner commented on Channel 4 racing today that Denman would win next years Grand National. Could another Crisp be on the cards?
#253
March 14th, 2008 21:24
Another point to take out from Cheltenham in support of Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die for the National is the fact that High Chimes took the spoils in the Kim Muir.
High Chimes finished behind Cloudy and Comply earlier in the season and has come out and won the same race that Cloudy won last year in the Kim Muir. This can only be a very positive form boost for Cloudy and Comply.
#254
March 15th, 2008 10:20
Well no D’ARGENT in the MIDLANDS NATIONAL so it looks like all roads lead to LIVERPOOL.But its not good news for NAUNTON BROOK as running today won’t help its cause for 3 weeks time.The shortlist isn’t a shortlist anymore and D’ARGENT is going to be my main bet!!
#255
March 15th, 2008 14:48
Yeah totally agree Wacky!
both would have a great chance in the both nationals
but running in such a testing marathon today has gotta cancel out
your chance in three weeks.
Naunton today…D’argent on April 5th!!!
#256
March 15th, 2008 17:33
oh dear, Naunton ran no race. No idea what to make of him now!
I thought he’d like conditions, didn’t want to be there
or gets in a mood if not at the front immediately.
Further thoughts on the grand national..
if its tacky ground like this week, whose chances are boosted?
I think the field could be weak after briefly going through it again
#257
March 16th, 2008 12:28
Joyous news. point barrow runs tomoro at down royal. hopefully hes gonna get his little ” placed in the first three” figure tomorow” – which only leaves the topspeed figure as the fly in the ointment = i reckon hell be down to about 14-16s tomorrow after he runs… its not a hot race and dun doire looks the only danger…
#258
March 16th, 2008 14:59
He faces six rivals and Dun Doire is the only one that should be troubling him.
He needs to come first or second for me.
#259
March 16th, 2008 16:21
Point Barrow’s entry in the Irish National is bothering me!!! they wouldnt would they??
#260
March 16th, 2008 19:18
Someone here spoke of McKelvey, a great performance last year, but here are some interesting stats. Since Red Rum came back to win in ’77 after finishing second in ’76, sixteen National seconds have tried to go one better the following year. Seven have failed to complete (including four of the last five who have tried) six have been unplaced, including Hedgehunter in ’07, one came fourth -MrSnugfit in ’86- and two finished second again- Greasepaint in ’84 and Suny Bay in ’98. In the same time eighteen winners have come back to try again with very similar results; seven failing to complete, six unplaced, three finishing fourth, one finishing third and one finishing second.
#261
March 16th, 2008 21:19
If Dun Doire runs well tomorrow then its odds will shorten. I know we have discounted everything from under Philson Run as they may not get in but lets say Dun Doire gets in the National would it have a good chance?
#262
March 16th, 2008 21:32
He ran a stinker last year so I wont be backing him. Why are we discounting everything under Philson Run? Philson is due to carry 10 stone 7lb’s- theres no way he will be bottom weight.
Im erring on the side of caution and considering everything from Ossmoses upwards.
#263
March 17th, 2008 12:29
I first mentioned Dun Doire on 27th Feb and i still believe he will have a good chance if he gets in.
#264
March 17th, 2008 17:54
I thought that was a reasonable enough race by point barrow 2day. ok …without been overly impressive .. he now has form figures uncannily similar to what papillon possessed before he romped to aintree glory…. a good run by dun doire too but not sure id want to be lumping on a horse that did nothing in this race last year.. hopefully old pb doesnt go to fairyhouse..!
#265
March 17th, 2008 18:07
A little bit dissapointed in Point Barrow today but the jockey never gave him a hard time,lets hope he was told to take it easy and keep him sweet for Aintree
#266
March 17th, 2008 18:41
Market not very impressed with PB`s run today.
I disagree that the jockey did not give it a hard time today,
he was pushing like hell and whipping until he knew he was beat.
#267
March 17th, 2008 20:49
I have to agree with Texas Pete on this one. I don’t think Point Barrow was given a hard ride at all. He got a few slaps to look interested but was just tapped for pace when they quickened infront. He was pushed out to the line and it was a satisfactory prep run for the National.
I believe the marathon trips suit this ten year old perfectly now as he seems to travel very well before the others around him speed off to the finish. He is entitled to take his place in the Aintree line up.
He is my 3rd choice Ante Post bet behind Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die anyway, so considering all the facts I am happy he goes to the National with a nice run and a third place finish under his belt.
#268
March 17th, 2008 22:53
This is the racing posts view of PB`s run today.
Point Barrow
tracked leaders, progress into 2nd after 5 out, ridden after 3 out, 3rd 2 out, no extra
#269
March 18th, 2008 09:24
Yeh. Which is what I said. Travelled well until the two infront had a bit of extra toe and then chased them home. I was happy anyway.
Something that made me even happier was seeing the fact both Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die have been heavily backed over the past week or so.
Cloudy Lane – 6/1 from 13/2 at Paddy Power and 6/1 from 7/1 at some bookies. General 6/1 available now.
Comply Or Die – 16/1 from 20/1 at a number of bookies and as low as 14/1 with some. Generally 16s. Some money must have been put on him.
#270
March 18th, 2008 13:32
Comment on Racing Post about Point Barrows run;
Point Barrow gurgled before the third-last and he does prefer better ground. Aintree is still a possibility, but we could decide on Fairyhouse instead. I’ll have to discuss things with the owners. – Pat Hughes
#271
March 18th, 2008 15:18
I have just heard that only 10 horses have dropped out at the latest declaration stage.
The bad news is i have also heard Parsons Legacy is one of them.
I really hope this is not true.
#272
March 18th, 2008 15:22
Hedgehunter is now meant to be top weight as Celestial Gold is said to have been withdrawn.
NB: these have not been confirmed as of yet.
#273
March 18th, 2008 15:36
Still not confirmed but the list of withdrawals according to my source is:
Celestial Gold,
Parsons Legacy,
Monkerhostin,
Joe Lively,
Boychuk,
Kilbeggan blade,
Bob Bob Bobbin
Rule Supreme,
Captain Corelli
& Brooklyn Breeze.
Weights go up by 1lb
#274
March 18th, 2008 15:50
It is now confirmed, See below taking off Sporting life website:
Cloudy Lane, ante-post favourite for the John Smith’s Grand National on April 5, features among the 115 horses still engaged in the Aintree marathon.
Owned by Trevor Hemmings, the eight-year-old stood his ground at the second forfeit stage, at which Celestial Gold was the most notable absentee.
The David Pipe-trained 10-year-old had topped the weights.
His absence now leaves Hi Cloy and 2005 Hedgehunter, who is also owned by Hemmings, sitting at the top of the handicap on 11st 12lb.
The last-named pair are among 30 Irish-trained horses still engaged, while key names such as McKelvey, Simon and Mr Pointment are also still involved.
Monkerhostin, Rule Supreme, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk, Kilbeggan Blade, Bob Bob Bobbin, Captain Corelli and Brooklyn Breeze complete the list of defectors.
#275
March 18th, 2008 16:04
This is from the betfair forum on saturday
15 Mar 10:40
Hobbs was features in “Trainer File” in the RFO this week lads and theres nothing to worry about with Parsons Legacy – here’s his quote:
“He was going to run in the Kim Muir again, a race in which he has been placed twice, including last season when he was an unlucky second. However, the Grand National is the main plan now and he would go there with a sound chance. He has some very solid form to his name having finished 3rd in the Scottish National last year and he has run 2 sound races this season at Cheltenham finishing 5th and 4th.”[/i
#276
March 18th, 2008 16:18
As far Comply or Die, now number 44 in the entries, I think he should get in as i can see at least 3 horses defecting at the next declaration stage and after the ratings have been re-assessed he should come out on top of all 10-09 horses.
I wouldn’t be backing anything lower than 10-08 now though and im erring on the side of caution and only looking at horses on 10-09 and above.
Is it time we re-assessed the trend that horses wont win with over 11 stone???
#277
March 18th, 2008 16:20
Point barrow’s now a definate runner at Aintree according to the sporting life web-site so a huge sigh of relief there,Parsons legacy’s out which has to be good for anybody who’s not on it,one less of the major players to worry about!
#278
March 18th, 2008 16:20
Pat Hughes confirmed today point barrow goes to aintree instead of fairyhouse ….good news – although the defection of celestial gold means he is crepping perilously close to the 11 stone marker….nevertheless i think he goes there with a fine chance – just a pity about the top speed !…
#279
March 18th, 2008 16:24
Also on Sporting Life website…..
Pat Hughes revealed Point Barrow is on course for a second crack at the Aintree highlight.
The 10-year-old was last year sent off the 8-1 co-favourite for the National, but only got as far as the first fence before crashing out.
Although he was disappointing at Down Royal on Monday, Point Barrow will still head to the National rather than Monday’s Irish equivalent, which he won in 2006.
“Point Barrow won’t run in the Irish Grand National – he is on course for the English National,” confirmed the County Carlow handler.
“He’s perfect and was held up for nearly two weeks after running (in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup) at Haydock.
“It was very heavy ground on Monday and I’d say that the race will bring him on and he’ll be all right.”
Of last year’s National setback, Hughes added: “He over-jumped last year, but is a very good jumper and we’d schooled him over Aintree-type fences.
“He launched himself at that one, but these things happen.”
#280
March 18th, 2008 17:12
Brian, this trend of nothing can win carrying over 11st is slightly misleading. I would say it’s highly unlikely anything will win carrying a stone more than bottom weight as nothing has since the fences were modified in 1990. Papillon carried 12lbs more than bottom weight in 2000. I believe the average weight carried by winners since 1990 is six pounds more than bottom weight.
#281
March 18th, 2008 17:42
Lets get one thing straight ,PARSONS LEGACY was never a player in the win market as it wasn’t going to fit the runs needed or been in a race within 50 days of the race.The closer it gets to the race the more confident i feel about D’ARGENTS chances as i feel COMPLY OR DIE & CLOUDY LANES official ratings are both to high now.Please tell me if im wrong?
#282
March 18th, 2008 17:56
I actually don’t think D’Argent will stay. I think it may sneak a place if heavy going. If you look at any run it has had on ground better than soft, it is always weakening at the end.
IMO Cloudy lane and Comply or Die have better chances but, agreed, the ratings are creeping up a bit too much now.
#283
March 18th, 2008 18:06
The official ratings of Cloudy and Comply are not too high based on the rating they have in the National and that is what the trend is based on. Infact they both have perfect ratings at 141 and 139.
The fact they are now rated 161 and 150 respectively is a huge positive for me as they will be racing with far less weight than they should be.
They now to me represent the two best chances in the 2008 John Smith’s Grand National.
Comply Or Die has coming in for tremendous support over the last week and is now best priced 14/1 on the list of Racing Post bookmakers.
All roads lead to Aintree…
#284
March 18th, 2008 18:10
Interesting about the ratings but Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die interest me becasue they would both be carrying a hell of a lot more weight if the handicapper could get at them! An interesting thing concerning Point Barrow. Not many favoured horses have come back to Aintree after falling at the first – logically, I suppose, connections believe the horse is unsuited to the demand of the fences- but Gay Trip finished second in ’72 and Docklands Express finished fourth in ’92 after falling at the first fence in the previous year.
#285
March 18th, 2008 19:48
Point Barrow still has no TS rating of 128 or more and has had 7 runs (one more than the trend for the last ten years but not the last 20years).
I keep coming back to Comply or Die – just look at his from – a real real class horse with speed and stamina! Told you all to get on early his price will drop even more – MUCH more and I will even take a bit more myself even at these lower prices this week.
Best RPR 155 x three
Best TS 150 (last race in Feb and TS143 in Dec)
Won over 33f this year
2nd in Royal Sun Alliance Chase 2005
Won the Eider Chase this year (last race)over 33f
Will give you my new short list soon (Comply of Die will be in it!).
#286
March 18th, 2008 21:14
C O D is taking a walk in the market on betfair last 1/2 hour.
#287
March 18th, 2008 21:44
Hardly a walk. It’s normal fluctuation. I wouldn’t trust the exchanges too much until the day of the race. It’s price has certainly crumbled with the traditional bookmakers over the past week. Must be a good sign.
#288
March 18th, 2008 22:04
Hardly normal fluctuation, all the high st apart from WH going down to
12s & 14`s Betfair going to 16.5 @ 7pm with all the weight of money to the right,
then in the last hour or so its out to 19 with all the weight of money reversed.
Parsons legacy crumbled with the traditional bookies over the last 4 days
and we all know what happened there dont we,I hope I am wrong but do not like the
look of the betfair market at all, and that reacts far faster than any high street firm when something is amiss.
#289
March 18th, 2008 22:07
crisp 73 – rememebr ist the OR that really matter not the weight – the OR will determine the weight automatically.
To repeat all past nine winners wer OR 136 to 144 and in 1998 it was OR 147. Weights are now up another one lbs.
So ur winner is somewhere between
OR 138 (assuming below this will not make the cut(if they do, you need to assess any below this OR who do make the cut).
AND OR 144 or 147(max)
Giving any horse between
10.08 – OR 138 (Ursumman and uowards)
to
11.00 – OR 144 (Alexander Taipan and down the list)with a max of 11.03 – Or 147(Butlers Cabin and down.
#290
March 18th, 2008 22:19
Systems man,Im fairly sure that your final 3 will be COMPLY OR DIE,D’ARGENT and CLOUDY LANE.They are the only ones that are left that fit the stats so its time to get stuck in and bash the bookies!!!All we have to do now is PRAY the stats hold up for another year.
#291
March 18th, 2008 22:52
Comply Or Die back in to 17.5 on Betfair now.
#292
March 18th, 2008 23:26
Systems man – I hear what you are saying but if the bottom weight is 10st 8lbs, say, then, based on post 1990 trends, anything carrying up to 11st 6lb, can win. If, for instance, the bottom weight in 2000 had been 10-8 then Papillon would have carried 11-6 to victory. How the weights stand in the race is important.
#293
March 19th, 2008 04:17
Can you Adam and Eve it. Parsons Legacy out, my No.1 horse. Without the Cheltenham run last week, the writing was on the wall. Thats now 2 of my original 8 out, not doing so well.
Will also scrub Cornish Sett and Cornish Rebel for obvious reasons.
That leaves me with 4 –
Butlers Cabin, Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die.
From my 17 yr. trend, all 4 have a few minor faults and considering what happened to the trends at Cheltenham last week, I would like to add 1 more horse, who has only 1 fault – 2 chase wins.
No.5 Over The Creek.
#294
March 19th, 2008 05:09
OK, what can I say – Parsons Legacy out, my No. 1 horse bites the dust. Not running At Cheltenham was a bad sign. Thats now 2 of my original 8 out, not doing so well.
Will also scrub Cornish Sett and Cornish Rebel for obvious reasons.
That leaves me with 4 -
Butlers Cabin, Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die.
All 4 have a few minor faults and because the trends took a bashing last week at Cheltenham, I will add a 5th. horse, who has only 1 fault – 2 chase wins.
5th. hosre – Over The Creek.
#295
March 19th, 2008 10:25
OK, I’ve been keeping an eye on this blog for the past couple of weeks and also doing my own analysis.
Based on the info given here, which also matches what I look for in a national winning horse I’ve backed Comply or Die at 23′s and D’Argent at 55 both on BF.
I have to be honest and say that regardless of the strange trend of winning his last two races, I really fancy Cloudy Lane aswell. The price is prohibitive though and I haven’t backed him. He will certainly be involved in any mixed forecasts/tricasts I put on on the day.
#296
March 19th, 2008 11:00
Hobbs had four horses in the National before yesterday’s declaration stage – Monkerhostin, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk and Captain Corelli.
All four of these have now been taken out. Pure co-incidence, trouble in the yard, or a clerical error from Hobbs’ team?
I hope to god it wasn’t the latter otherwise I will not be too happy…
#297
March 19th, 2008 14:40
Parsons being declared a non-runner is a real shame (well for myself and a few others on here).
He seemed like he was getting tipped up a lot, and my hopes were growing and growing.
Now that he’s gone support must go elsewhere.
Come on Comply Or Die!!!
Just wish I’d got on at 25′s and 20′s shortly after the Eider
#298
March 19th, 2008 15:53
I’m on at 25/1 Jimmy Boy!
He is now trading at 15 on Betfair and is 14/1 generally with high street bookies and 12′s in places.
Let’s hope the gamble pays off.
#299
March 19th, 2008 15:59
If the stats do indeed point to comply or die, cloudy lane and D’argent then i cant help wonder why on earth D’argent is still generally available at 40/1.
Is there something we have overlooked??
i know it was a doubt for running at one stage but surely he is going to Aintree now.
#300
March 19th, 2008 16:26
I’m glad a few of you chaps now give OVER THE CREEK a chance,i’ve been on about him for weeks now and i’m surprised a few people seem to have written him off,i’m on him at up to 250s on betfair,he’s already beaten a few of the others at cheltenham i.e. Simon,L’ami,Parsons,he’s a sound jumper and has a nice weight
#301
March 19th, 2008 16:45
Over The Creek has only had 9 chase runs in his lifetime. Maybe a bit of inexperience is the reason for his large price?
He has a chance but you have to feel Comply Or Die is the main hope of the Pipe/Johnson team.
#302
March 19th, 2008 17:33
Over the creek is a very interesting horse . One run short of the required 10 chase runs but he has placed in the welsh national which is traditionally one of the best aintree trials …he could be the dark horse of the race if his inexperience doesnt find him out….
#303
March 19th, 2008 17:40
Big fan of Over the Creek and have him at big prices. However, I have a feeling that Pipe will choose not to run him and give him a pop at Sandown Gold Cup instead later in April. Hope not!
D’Argent is probably 40/1 because, despite what the stats say, it reflects his chances. He always seems to weaken in 3m+ races over 3m on any ground better than soft. However, if ground forecast comes up soft or heavy then expect to see his odds plummet. I’m increasingly liking the chances of Simon (despite the hefty weight) and think Mon Mome could be interesting. Already have Comply or Die ante-post but not as much on as I would like
#304
March 19th, 2008 19:05
I’d agree Comply Or Die is the main hope for the Pipe/Johnson team and i was half expecting Over The Creek to be withdrawn at the forfeit stage yesterday due to his price drifting heavily on Betfair over the last couple of weeks but its come down now and seems to have steadied.I just hope Pipe does go for the Nat-he’d be mad not to.I think The Creek’s his best hope after COD!
#305
March 19th, 2008 19:40
Looks like the bookies have been looking at this site – one of the problems with sharing info. Comply or Die now 12/1 with Coral 2nd Fav – but he deserves to be and if you can get 14/1 – get on as he will be a lot less soon!
We need D’Argent to drop in price a bit – if it does (and I think it will) it also is a great trends horse.
#306
March 19th, 2008 22:16
Hi Guys,D’ARGENT is non runner no bet at BET365 and it was 33/1 last night(25/1 now).Plus its gone down 8pts to 41/1 on betfair overnight.From the 1st of APRIL i will be praying for heavy downpours everyday!!!Bring it on!!!
#307
March 20th, 2008 01:18
Brian said “Have we overlooked something about D’argent because he is still 40/1″
As I write, he is 40/1 with 10 bookies.
On the surface he looks a good bet, he seems to fit all the trends but if we dig deeper, he does have some minor faults but then no ones perfect.
1 – His trainer said twice “He is not an Aintree horse”. – So why is he one now ?. If the trainer can’t make up his mind what chance have we.
2 – Perhaps this was about his 5 chase wins on undulating tracks – 4 Warwick and 1 Cheltenham and his 2nd. in the Midlands National in Utt.- again an undulating track.
3 – His first 2 form figures -P0 do not match any of the last 17 winners.
4 – His chase strike rate in regard 1st.,2nd. and 3rd. in total V chase runs is 39%.
13 of the last 17 winners had a 50%+ strike rate. The other 4 had 47%,46%,46% and 42%, so D’argent’s 39% is a new low.
5 – His 2 major chase wins of 39k and 57k were on Hy.and Sft.
Throw in the fact he is grey, has pu 4 times, might wear blinkers and his last visit to the track was poor, might explain his 40/1 price
#308
March 20th, 2008 10:13
Thanks Miinnehoma for them stat’s. Im beginning to look at D’Argent in a different light now.
Although i dont buy the theory of Grey’s dont win the national often, I just think not many greys run in the national so there’s not going to be many grey national winners, It wouldn’t stop more lumping on if i thought the horse was good enough to win.
The other Stats do matter tho so im having a rethink of what to put my last bet on. Mon Mome has been one at the back of my mind but think thats where im keeping it.
All will be hopefully made easier once we know what the going will be and who will definetly be lining up.
#309
March 20th, 2008 18:37
Miinnehoma said:
“His chase strike rate in regard 1st.,2nd. and 3rd. in total V chase runs is 39%.
13 of the last 17 winners had a 50%+ strike rate. The other 4 had 47%,46%,46% and 42%, so D’argent’s 39% is a new low”.
Amazing facts – great work. I will now add this to my GN winners profile for this and future years.
#310
March 20th, 2008 23:32
Hi guys…Really interesting work here..Just going to throw in a few quotes and ideas of my own to help or confuse the mater…Ok
D’argent Alan King is quoted as saying “We never really thought he was a National horse, but he has jumped much better since we put blinkers on. I need to persuade the owners to run, but it’s more than likely he will. He has a fair weight.” BLINKERS ALARM BELLS GOING ANYONE???
Now i havn’t read the whole thread so apologies if this has been mentioned before but here are a couple more stats to help…
1) Eliminate any horse who ran in novice chases last season. It’s most unusual for a runner to complete the course, let alone place, who has not got at least 2 season’s experience of steeplechasing under it’s belt.
2) Eliminate any horse who has not run 1st or 2nd in a steeplechase with at least 12 runners.Horses need to show they can handle a reasonably big field and the cruising speed such a race requires to remain competitive…
Tom Segal in his pricewise column says “It may seem a strange statement to make given that the National is the longest race in the calendar but, barring Earth Summit- or Red Marauder-like conditions, where survival is the most important factor, the key ingredient any horse needs to win the race is speed, not stamina. What I mean is that the ability to travel well and hold a good position is vital, which is the reason why the out-and-out stayers very seldom win.
The importance of travelling and position is no different here than in any other valuable handicap throughout the season, but come the National everyone gets bogged down by thoughts of stamina, and concentrates on the slow horses.
The quickest way to get any horse beaten is to have them going faster than they want too early on in a race, and the National exemplifies that perfectly.”
Hope this has helped guys….By the way just for the record these were my remaining short list horses….
Point Barrow, Butlers Cabin, McKelvey, Joes Edge, Philson Run, D’argent, Dun Doire, Mon Mome, Ossmoses, Royal Auclair, Joaaci, Naunton Brook,Comply or Die…
I’m taking out Mckelvey as horses placed generally don’t go on to win the following year, D’argent because of the blinkers, Mon Mome is french bred, Ossmoses and Dun Doire i don’t think will get in which leaves….
Point Barrow, Butlers Cabin, Joes Edge, Philson Run, Royal Auclair, Joaaci, Naunton Brook, Comply or Die… Not heard anyone comment on Joaaci or Joes Edge yet…How has anyone else ruled them off the shortlist??
More quotes
)
David Pipe – “Joaaci should be suited by it.”
Ferdy Murphy is also quoted as saying Joes Edge is in top nick though granted his National history is not good…
#311
March 20th, 2008 23:43
I’m going to be somewhat controversial in naming my 4….
1) Comply or Die
2) Naunton Brook
3) Joaaci
4) Joes Edge
and if i can let go of the blinkers thing i may have a saver on D’argent…Well they do say variety is the spice of life…As for those considering Snowy morning and Chelsea harbour both i believe were novices last season so i am ruling them out on the grounds of inexperience…
#312
March 20th, 2008 23:58
I’m back again i’ve just noticed Joes Edge is off 10-6 which may not get him a run…What does anyone think the cut off point will be…Horses like Dun Doire, Joes Edge and Ossmoses are all around 10-6…Will they run???
#313
March 21st, 2008 11:40
RE: JOE’S EDGE
Trainer Ferdy Murphy was at Aintree on Tuesday for a media event and he was chipper about the chances of Joe’s Edge, firstly, taking part and, secondly, running a good race.
I’m not so sure on both counts.
The horse needs around a dozen above it in the handicap to drop out. Unlikely? Ferdy also spoke of Joe’s Edge being unlucky last year when he suffered a kick to the shin which, he says, ruined his chances. The form book shows he never got into contention when he was pulled up before the 20th fence, carrying just 10st 2lb.
He came 7th in 2006 when arguably a better horse, just 12 months after his Scottish National win. He’s also won at Liverpool over the smaller fences in 2005 but has not done much to impress lately.
Arguably his better days behind him though? I think he’ll be aimed at Ayr on April 19 where he’s got a chance of winning back his crown with a decent weight.
One to cross off the list for April 5, I think.
#314
March 21st, 2008 12:39
Some very interesting and well researched views on here.Firstly I would say that Phil Smith is ruining the national as I used to believe one of the easier races to narrow down the runners,anything between 10stone and 10 st 8 would be where the winner is normally found,now the bottom weight will probably have 10st 6! With that in mind I wouldnt rule out something above 11st winning, on good ground Slim Pickings has an excellent chance. I think there lies the key to this years race, as ever the going.On good ground Slim pickings,cloudy lane or comply or die are the most likely winners, on soft or even heavy philson run,d’argent,or mon mome are the most likely winnners (also ossmosses, but cant see him getting a run) My three outsiders I’m keeping an eye on are patsy hall, over the creek and joacci,in fact I think Tmmy Murphy could have a very difficult choice in a weeks time, but I would rather hold my bets on the pipe camp until nearer the race. I will probably do 3 or 4 horses on the day and will post my selections on here, good luck with all your bets.
#315
March 21st, 2008 14:16
I’ve been thinking along similar lines,L.P.
At first I was concentrating on my usual stats but each time I look now I am drawn to the fact that the range of weights is something I don’t recall seeing before. Are there any facts or figures out there of a previous ‘national where the bottom weight is 10.6??
It could well be this year that weight will not have its accustomed effect!! Thus Simon would be a cert rather than a delete. Oh what a dilemma!
#316
March 21st, 2008 15:11
Now that the handicapper is making it harder for horses to get in carrying weights from 10st 01lb to 10st 03lbs I reckon the new weight cut-off point is 11st 3lbs. Therefore my initial shortlist: Butler’s Cabin, Slim Pickings, Bewley’s Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, D’Argent, Mon Mome, Cloudy Lane, Black Apalachi, Philson Run, Joes Edge, Dunbrody Millar. That is 12 horses. McKelvey is the ideal horse for the National as he would stay 5 miles! Just a shame he has injury problems. Personally I think BEWLEY’S BERRY can follow in the footsteps of Amberleigh House – who had fallen the prior year and then finished a good 2nd in the Becher Chase. Applying the stats of having between 4 and 6 runs the two who stand out are SLIM PICKINGS and – oddly – BLACK APALACHI.
#317
March 21st, 2008 15:19
Regarding the chances of Black Apalachi, it may be worth keeping an eye on how Preists Leap performs in the Irish Grand National on Monday, as both are closely linked on the Thyestes Chase in Jan.
#318
March 21st, 2008 19:05
I’ll say it once more. Forget the weight think OR and the weight will take care of itself.
Results for last ten years.
2007 138(OR) 10.06(weight) 33/1 price
2006 138 10.08 11/1
2005 144 11.01 7/1F
2004 139 10.10 16/1
2003 139 10.07 16/1
2002 136 10.04 20/1
2001 140 10.11 33/1
2000 139 10.12 10/1
1999 142 10.00 10/1
1998 147 10.05 7/1
So in the last nine previous years the GN winner was OR 136 to OR 144
AND
1998 OR 147
So forget anything carrying 11.04 or above(as of todays weights).
The winner is more likley to be weighted between
10.08 – OR 138(assuming nothing below OR 138 gets a run)
AND
11.00 – OR 146
So who is going to win?
Also worth noting the winners price (on the day) was between:
7/1 and 20/1 8/10 (80%) and we had a big price winner last year.
#319
March 22nd, 2008 01:45
Who is going to win ?
Cards on the table.
Like most of you I have looked at this race ’til blue in the face. My 17 yr. trends say – Cloudy Lane, yet I don’t think he will get the distance and his form figures are 2 good.
His dam’s sire is Celtic Cone. The ’98 winner Earth Summit sire was also Celtic Cone but I wonder is it the wrong way round for Cloudy Lane. If you watch last yrs. Irish National, he was well beaten 3 out before his UR. So, twice last yr. he stepped up to 29f. and was hammered. Perhaps this yr. being older he might do better ?
Not only do I have doubts about him but also about all our other fancied runners. None, None of them match the last 17 winners.
I feel we have over looked something, I feel a trend buster is lurking in our midst.
Which trend – Wt.,Age, French, No.of runs, chase runs/wins, No. of days, form fig’s etc. – God knows.
#320
March 22nd, 2008 11:39
I think a good bet for bottom weight is now
10-7.
Systems Man, and all trend followers, I do agree with the stats, in fact, systems man, I don’t think we should read to much in to weight/OR trends pre 2000 because the handicapper is now conciously constircting the weights and thus the National is almost adifferent race from pre 2000. Since 2000 no horse has carried less than four pounds more than bottom weight to victory or more than twelve.
2000 Papillon, 12lbs more than bottom weight.
2001 Red Marauder, 11lbs.
2002 Bindaree, 4lbs.
2003 Montys Pass, 7lbs.
2004 Amberleigh House, 10lbs.
2005 Hedgehunter, 10lbs.
2006 Numbersixvalverde, 4lbs.
2007 Silver Birch, 4lbs.
This trend, if bottom weight is 10-7, suggests that the winner will carry between 10-11 and
11-5.
But trends are just trends. Through the eighties and nineties no one backed Irish horses in the national! No wins between 1975 and 1999. An eleven year old didn’t win the National for over twenty years from the late fifties until and the early eighties.
#321
March 22nd, 2008 11:52
I had a very small stake at 1am this morning on Turko at 180.0 on Betfair. Following Paul Nicholls’ comments in RP this morning, it is now down to 34.0. He states that it will ‘possibly’ run, but then goes on to say that it is the horse he is really sweet on and that he hopes Ruby will ride it.
I do of course realise that it has a massive weight and breaks pretty much every trend that we can think of, but thought it was worth posting just to keep everyone in the loop!
#322
March 22nd, 2008 13:20
So
Weight trends (Crisp)V OR trends (Systems Man)
Crisp:
“Since 2000 no horse has carried less than four pounds more than bottom weight to victory or more than twelve. This trend, if bottom weight is 10-7, suggests that the winner will carry between 10-11 and
11-5″.
Systems Man;
“So forget anything carrying 11.04 or above(as of todays weights).
The winner is more likley to be weighted between
10.08 – OR 138(assuming nothing below OR 138 gets a run)
AND
11.00 – OR 146″
Point Barrow and D’Argent gets into both(Point Barrow lives again! – I think the number of prep races is one of the weakest trends anyway)
Comply or Die for OR trends and almost all other trends (other than the above)+ D’Argent (most trends) and Point Barrow (7 runs and lacks high TS rating but he does have a TS rating of 129 in a Hurdle race and one previous winner in the last ten year did win without a TS of 128).
Its very likey a small change to trends may occur and I think the number of prep runs is the weakest link still giving Point Barrow a chance (if we go back 17 years I think the trend for prep races is 2 to 7). Or am I just trying to find a reason for my early bet on Point Barrow? Its a big mistake to get attached to any horse – just consider the trends.
My list:
1. Comply Or Die – an outstanding chance on ALL trends. On every system I look at this horse keeps coming up as the best profile for the winner.
2. D’Argent – price needs to drop to 33/1 or less before the off (25/1 or less would be best).
3. Point Barrow – I cant seem to let go of this one altough he lacks speed.
4. Naunton Brook – ONLY if his price drops to 33/1 or less before the off (25/1 or less would be best).
Cloudy Lane can win but the profile looks very odd (too many wins! Novice last season) and i will not back him with a penny of my money.
I shall now wait to see who is running in the week of the race when things may get a little clearer.
In the mean time I am going to take even more of that 14/1 on Comply or Die! (I can see myself and the wife lying on our sun loungers on the deck of that cruise ship in the med right now).
#323
March 22nd, 2008 16:09
What trend does Slim Pickings fail? I’ve just applied the relevant trends and he is one of the horses who still remains…
#324
March 22nd, 2008 16:10
Systems Man, I think you’ve done a great job. I’m with you most of the way.
I would love to see POINT BARROW go well, but I have a few reservations. He is yet to put in a decent run when he’s travelled over from Ireland, although last year’s first fence tumble at Aintree can be discounted (unless he suffers flashbacks!).
The TopSpeed analysis you’ve done is worrying to an extent, although you only have to watch the Irish Grand National performance of 2006 to realise he’s got the speed to win at the top level. That was a good pace despite what the clock might say and Point Barrow moved to the front really well…and stayed there.
I’m a bit suspicious of TS ratings, especially for the Irish races, and while a high rating is reassuring, I don’t think you can discount a horse with a proven winning record purely because its TS rating is relatively low.
Point Barrow showed he can race up with the pace and kick on when required. That convinces me he’s got the speed for Aintree.
The rest of his profile is spot on and he’s a 10/1 shot in my eyes. The fact that his owner and trainer have opted for Aintree again ahead of Fairyhouse shows that they mean business.
D’ARGENT looks outstanding and I think the money will come for him. He’s come in around 15 points on the exchanges over the last week or so which shows confidence among shrewd punters. I think he will be nearer to the 20/1 mark on April 5, especially if the ground softens.
Ignore any ‘grey horses don’t win the National’ talk. Suny Bay (also by Roselier) is one of the best Grand National horses of the last 30 years.
Gritty, honest horse with proven stamina and a liking for left-hand tracks. The stable’s bang in form as well. Blinkers have hopefully sorted out any jumping blips. Identikit Grand National winner.
NAUNTON BROOK is another shrewd spot. I don’t think he’s got the class to win, but he’s a sound jumper and his form this season is good. He’s still just about ‘on the up’ and showed a liking for Aintree’s big fences last year. He won a hurly-burly contest at Carlisle in November.
The record of front runners is OK at Aintree despite the myths. Lord Gyllene and Monty’s Pass?
Naunton Brook is 66/1 with several bookies and nearer 100/1 with Betfair, so you’re looking at a terrific each-way bet that could spring a surprise if he holds on.
COMPLY OR DIE looks to be the selection on statistical trends alone. However, I’m concerned he will struggle to win two 4m+ chases within six weeks of each other.
I keep picturing him running out of steam at The Elbow while the fresher horses kick on, again especially if the ground heads towards soft which I think it may. Or am I looking for excuses to rule him out because I missed the value prices? Perhaps.
The fact that the horse was being lined up for Cheltenham also indicates that the Grand National is not the focus of the season for trainer, owner or both.
Others which keep creeping into my calculations are McKELVEY and ROYAL AUCLAIR.
I know McKelvey’s preparation is unconventional, but the race was nearly his last year and trainer Peter Bowen has made no secret of the fact that the Grand National is hit only target race for 2008. That was some finish in 2007, wasn’t it? The 11st weight is OK and he should have developed over the last 12 months. Bit young last year at 8?
The fact that he’s only had two prep races (both unimpressive) puts me off backing him but he should be considered a serious threat if he’s fit. We won’t know until around 4.30pm on April 5.
I’ve got a soft spot for ROYAL AUCLAIR although he’s cost me dear over the last couple of years. He’s a class act at his best and his 2nd behind Hedgehunter in 2006 when carrying 11st 10lb was a great achievement.
He’s tumbled down the ratings and his last two Grand Nationals have been disappointing (and costly for me). There have been a few swishes of the tail with his form this season though.
Could he be another Silver Birch or Royal Athlete at a whopping price? Maybe not, but like Naunton Brook a great each-way chance, in my view.
So where’s my money gone? D’Argent and Point Barrow. Both each-way.
In fact both are also coupled with Padraig Harrington to win the US Masters, but that’s another story and another forum…
1, D’ARGENT.
2, POINT BARROW.
3, COMPLY OR DIE.
Each way: NAUNTON BROOK and ROYAL AUCLAIR.
#325
March 22nd, 2008 18:32
Some excellent posts here over the past few days. Well done people.
I do not have a Betfair account so I only bet with the high street bookies and my ante post bets so far are….
In January
Bewleys Berry EW @ 16/1
Point Barrow EW @ 25/1
In February
Cloudy Lane WIN @ 10/1
Comply Or Die EW @ 25/1
And after listening to all the views on this forum I am very pleased heading into the final two weeks leading up to the big day.
I will probably have a small bet on one more come the day of the race as I tend to have 4 or 5 by the off time.
But for now the ones I have on already are constantly being mentioned on here as people’s fancies, from different sources, and that can only be a good sign.
Let’s hope we all get the holiday in the sun eh Systems Man!!
#326
March 22nd, 2008 19:28
Stephen, I had high hopes for Bewley’s Berry after last year’s Grand National. Jumped really well and looked the business on the second circuit. He was near the top of my list going into the autumn.
But, I had expected him to pick off one of two decent races this term. As it is, his only chase win is a £3,000 race at Wetherby in 2005 when he was odds-on. It was his debut over fences and there have been 10 races since without success. That’s not good enough for me.
His run in the Becher Chase behind Mr Pointment gives him a chance on form.
Bewley’s Berry could make the frame and at 16/1 you may make a small profit. That could look like a big price on the day because I can see a lot of last year’s backers jumping on. It won’t be clever money though.
Too many question marks for me. But, as always, good luck.
#327
March 22nd, 2008 20:17
I agree with you Johnny. Bewley’s is definitely my fourth choice out of the ones I have backed so far. Bare in mind I did put that bet on in January and at that stage he had ran a very impressive trial in the Becher Chase. I have taken a lot of heart from the fact that Johnson/O’Regan had a decent Cheltenham and seem to be hitting form again but I won’t be too gutted if he doesn’t come up trumps on the day. The other three are my main hopes.
#328
March 23rd, 2008 00:43
To AK,
re- Slim Pickings
Now, this is the type of horse that could slightly alter the trends.
AK if you are working on the basic trends, then his wt. 11-3 is not a problem but I think most people here have been looking at horses below 11 st. Hedgehunter won with 11-1 so Slim has 2 lbs. more(bottom wt. this time might be higher) but yet he matches Earth Summit’s OR of 147.
He has 2 other minor faults –
1 – Placed horses have a shocking record.
2 – He has only 2 chase wins – the last 17 winners all won at least 3 chases (4-3, 2-4, 5-5, 2-6, 2-7, 1-11 and 1-13.)
For the record, 2-7 prep runs and 9, yes 9-41 chase runs.
Yes, Slim is a danger and now at a low price 12/1
#329
March 23rd, 2008 13:28
In John Cottrell’s book on the GN trends – he says avoid blinkers as horses sporting headgear have a bad record – no wins at all?
There hasn’t been much discussion about blinkers on this site, but Point Barrow, D’Argent and Comply Or Die all have had blinkers fitted on recent runs. So could this be a trend worth watching – or will this year break the trend?
I fancy COD and like others on this site I backed it recently at 14-1, but I will also have a couple of other bets on the day – depends on the going.
#330
March 23rd, 2008 15:36
Is this another trend to look for- number of days of last race before the National since 1988.
16 days, Rough Quest 96
20 days, Papillon 00, Monty’s Pass 03
23 days, Rhyme n Reason 88, Seagram 91, Miinnehoma 94, Lord Gyllene 97
24 days, Bobbyjo 99
25 days, Mr Frisk 90, Bindaree 02
27 days, Numbersixvalverde 06
28 days, Amberleigh House 04*
29 days, Little Polveir 89*
32 days, Silver Birch 07*
35 days, Party Politics 92, Royal Athlete 95*, Earth Summit 98
42 days, Red Marauder 01*
49 days, Hedgehunter 05*
The winners who are asterisked are those who won on their second or more attempt.(I’ve asterisked Royal Athlete as he did jump ten fences before falling in void National so therefore did gain National experience) Interesting how no horse has won the National at their second or more attempt with a run inside four weeks of the big day or longer than seven. No horse contesting the National for the first time has won without a prep run within 35 days of the big race.
#331
March 23rd, 2008 19:37
Interesting point and well worked out Crips but I’m going to discard it as coincidence as opposed to a trend as I can see no correlation between whether a horse has run in the National before or not and the number of days before the race it had its prep run.
Instead I am going to just use the rule of has it ran within 50 days of the race.
But like I said, well worked out and some people may follow it and use that rule.
#332
March 23rd, 2008 22:37
Stephen, it does appear random but suppose this reflects the trainers who ‘aim’ their horse for another shot at the National? I think this rule applies to Maori Venture in 87 but not to West Tip 86, though I haven’t got the relevant information on those two, so this actually is longer continuing sequence than the 4-6 prep runs which is broken by Minnehoma 94.
Anyway applying; non french, 8-12, 3m plus chase win, 10 chase runs, 4-6 prep runs, winning weight of 4lbs to 12 lbs above bottom weight, and the above leaves three horses- Cloudy Lane, Slim Pickings and ….. Baily Breeze!
#333
March 24th, 2008 10:52
Hi Admin – good article on comply or die – very interesting and thought provoking – keep them coming up to the day of the race – would like to hear ur thoughts on cloudy lane , point barrow and dargent
#334
March 24th, 2008 11:54
Hi Silver,
Thanks for the reply re the Comply Or Die post – I’ve replied properly on that thread.
#335
March 24th, 2008 20:56
I think many of us feel there will be a buck in the trends this yr – but what will it relate to? Age? Weight? No. of runs? French bred? Unusual form figures?
Can anyone confirm which trends they will definitely be sticking to this yr?
I still have a hunch for Ossmoses.
#336
March 24th, 2008 21:27
As i said on the forums, i think this year a horse will win that doesnt fit the trends exactly, to be honest i have doubts about all of the contenders!
I was sure Comply or Die was one of the contenders, but now i look at his past performance over long distance races and i’m concerned, maybe the Eider was a flash in the pan due to weak opposition?
Ossmoses needs a mud bath which i doubt he will get? If given a choice out of Couldy Lane, Slim Pickings and Baily Breeze, i would take BB on the prices! Cloudy lane is certainly waaay too short, the horse has stamina questions. People keep touting Slim Pickings but i just can’t see him winning, it sounds stupid but i think he will find one or 2 too good for him again, assuming he gets round. BB certinaly ticks many of the boxes and could pull a shock. Look for the big prices this year i think should be the key to profit.
Royal Auclair at 66/1 is the best value i can see at the moment (Comply or Die is now 12s….im not ready to take that even though i suspect he will start at about 9/1 2nd fav on the day)
#337
March 24th, 2008 21:50
I cant see anything that will buck the age trend.
Weight? I really like Simon but 11 stone 7lb’s is obviously off putting. I think he is the most likely of all the horses over 11 stone and will be backing him each way.
French bred – I like the article on this website that says you should rule out a horse being able to stay simply because it is french bred. Royal Auclair carrying 11 stone 10lb’s to 2nd place springs to mind! He could run another big race if standing up and I also like Mon Mome who was staying on well at the end of the WH Chase at Cheltenham.
Form figures – I feel this trend is unlikely to be bucked as well – surely you need a horse that is in some kind of form?
Overall i think the trend that is likely to be bucked is the headgear one. Earth Summit won wearing blinkers and 2 of the main trends fancies for the race – D’Argent and Comply or Die will also be wearing them – possibly Point Barrow too??
Finally, is it of any significance that Patsy Hall’s dams sire is Roselier, bearing in mind Roseliers good record in this race with his offspring?
#338
March 24th, 2008 22:28
Hi Everyone,Now that we are getting closer to the time of the big race is there anyone in the Liverpool area that could give us a weather update and going report over the next 2 weeks? Comply Or Die needs good ground and D’argent needs it soft!! In answer to stat mans question about stats to keep or lose we must remember not to go to far with them as we will have nothing left to back!Im not letting Blinkers or Colour of horse stop me backing 2 horses that fit all the stats that matter.Comply or Die & D’argent.
#339
March 25th, 2008 00:52
Racing director (i.e. clerk of the course) Andrew Tulloch spoke about the going when the press gathered for a lunch at Aintree last Tuesday.
The course was magnificent and definitely ‘good’ going.
He said the long range forecast at that stage was for showers over the following few days followed by ‘settled’ weather after the Easter weekend.
Despite the predicted showers and even a few snowflakes since then in north Liverpool, I doubt that the going is anything other than ‘good’ as of today (Sunday March 24).
However, Andrew’s long range forecast has fallen at the first fence.
Rather than ‘settled’ weather the Met Office is now predicting heavy rain for the area over several days between tomorrow (Tuesday) and next weekend.
The ground does tend to dry out relatively quickly at Aintree but I would predict that, if the forecasts are accurate, by next weekend (i.e. with a week to go) we could be looking at ‘soft’ or even ‘heavy’ going in parts, especially out towards the traditionally boggier Becher’s and the Canal Turn.
What the weather does in that final few days will obviously determine the going for the National, but backers of those horses which like a bit of give in the ground could be on course for a lucky break.
The natural drainage at Aintree is good though so unless there’s a fair amount rain in the final few days, I would be confident the going could be wrestled back towards ‘good.’
I suppose that’s a long-winded way of saying it could be anything from good to heavy. I’ll keep you posted. Always wanted to be a weatherman!!
Here’s what we’ve had in recent years…
1988: Good to Soft (9 finishers)
1989: Heavy (14)
1990: Firm (20)
1991: Good to soft (17)
1992: Good to soft (22)
1993: Void
1994: Heavy (6)
1995: Good (15)
1996: Good (17)
1997: Good (17)
1998: Heavy (6)
1999: Good (18)
2000: Good/Good to firm (17)
2001: Heavy (4)
2002: Good (11)
2003: Good (14)
2004: Good (11)
2005: Good to soft (21)
2006: Good to soft (9)
2007: Good (12)
2008: ???
It’s been heavy going five times over the last 27 runnings, but not since 2001. Can you read anything into that?
#340
March 25th, 2008 00:56
Correction: Monday March 24!! If I don’t know what day it is, how am I going to pick the winner?
#341
March 25th, 2008 12:03
I am in Liverpool and can tell you that we havent had downpours of rain for a few weeks now. Obviously we have had the odd light shower. Today there is a light drizzle but nothing to alter the going I would say. I will keep you updated or let me know when you want updates.
#342
March 25th, 2008 12:30
what do people think of SNOWY MORNING?
went as short as 8/1 but drifted in price due to poor jumping at Fairyhouse
Carries 11 st 1 (weight is generous IMO)
Age 8 (nothing to suggest an 8 year old can’t win race, Mckelvey last year should have won for instance)
Been ridden by Walsh and McCoy so i’d imagine will be guaranteed a good jockey booking
won a chase of over £20,000, has had 9 chase runs
3rd in the Hennessey behind the Listener (rated 170).
Surely has a great chance IF (and thats a big if) he sorts out his jumping
18/1 looks quite attractive compared to 10s for Slim Pickings or 6/1 for Cloudy Lane.
#343
March 25th, 2008 14:04
Thought i would add my comments on the players at the top of the market, plus one or two random others:
CLOUDY LANE
On form I can see why this is the favourite and fully expect it to run well. In my mind it is head and shoulders above the next best. The only issues are that we will not know if it stays extreme distances until the big day, and that 6/1 is a ridiculous ante-post price for the national.
COMPLY OR DIE
Expect this horse to go well, unless it turns soft or heavy. The patience of Timmy Murphy on board should help. Eider chase form doesn’t always work out but you can’t turn your nose up at a horse which won at 4m1f last time out and is well handicapped
SLIM PICKINGS
Place chances but can’t see it winning. More weight than last year and has a lot to find. It may well turn the tables on McKelvey but there are other horses which will improve past it. Price too low
BEWLEYS BERRY
It was going well last year when fell but hasn’t won for a long time, the last race it did win was poor quality, and rand like a drain last time. Not for me
SIMON
Interesting. Often stays on well in races and was going well last year. Softer ground would help and can see it as a good place bet, but weight maybe too high to win
MR POINTMENT
I can not see it winning following the publication of the weights and its last run. May have bled a bit as an excuse, but does not fill me with confidence despite having won over the fences.
BUTLERS CABIN
Poor form this year but we know it can stay despite being a french bred. Could run into minor place if good ground, but won’t win.
MCKELVEY
had this horse at big prices last year and, like many others, was gutted. Have backed it in more hope than expectation but realistically can’t see it even being placed now. Not impressive over two hurdles outings; you must bear in mind that it won its prep hurdle race last year, this time it was stone last.
POINT BARROW
Place claims at best for me. I like the profile but it just hasn’t run well enough recently for me to back. One that could surprise me, fair play if it does
CHELSEA HARBOUR
Have never seen this horse run, so just going on the book. Maybe a place on very testing ground? Worries me because i don’t know it!
HEDGEHUNTER
Not a chance of winning
JOES EDGE
Scores quite well on my analysis but just can’t back it following performance in race last year
The others:
D’ARGENT
Does very well on the trends analysis but worried that trainer has often stated it won’t be suited by the national. I can actually see this horse getting a place if it is soft or heavy only. Don’t think it will stay all the way, and not classy enough to actually win.
MON MOME
Doesn’t score very well on my analysis but have a sneaky feeling it will run well if ground is slowish or worse. May plod on for 3rd or 4th
OVER THE CREEK
No chance because its a novice? I’m not so sure. People will point out that it didn’t find anything at Cheltenham, but that was under a very big weight and it still came 2nd. I backed it in Welsh National and was doing it’s best work in the latter stages – coming 3rd to Halcon and Miko is not to be sniffed at. Good e/w bet but maybe not ante-post as have a feeling that pipe will choose not to run it and save it for next year. Will be annoyed!
TURKO
Big weight but not without an e/w chance in my book. I have no real reason for saying this, just a gut feeling. It was 180.0 on Betfair the other day when I had £3 on, is now 48.0. Won’t miss £3 if I am proved wrong. having said this, is another one which may well not run!
KELAMI
French bred but could sneak a place if having a good jumping round
In addition to this, there are 4 names which keep jumping out at me even though they have no chance on my analysis. They are getting on my nerves! These horses are Backbeat, Ardaghey, Joacci and Always Waining. Any comments on these would be welcome. Can i rule them all out?
#344
March 25th, 2008 14:33
Sorry, completely missed out:
SNOWY MORNING
There have been several negative comments on this site about this horse. I don’t know what to make of him as very inexperienced, but think has a better chance than many people have made out. The odds a couple of months ago were ridiculous, the 36.0 I got on Betfair a week ago is more like it. Worth a nibble at that price, not if 25.0 or below. better chance on softer ground
#345
March 25th, 2008 16:04
Loved reading the comments Speedyseagull.
One thing was missing though….
What are you tips for the race?
#346
March 25th, 2008 16:37
A very good point! Obviously depends on the going and whether they all actually run…
GOOD OR G/S
1st Cloudy Lane
2nd Comply or Die
3rd Turko
4th Over the Creek
5th Slim Pickings
SOFT OR HEAVY
1st Cloudy Lane
2nd Snowy Morning
3rd Simon
4th D’Argent
5th Mon Mome
#347
March 25th, 2008 17:47
Comply or Die has the beating of Cloudy Lane given the weight pull since their meeting earlier in the year and the fact that Cloudy Lane doesn’t stay, not saying that Comply or Die has bags of stamina but the Eider performance shows some reason to hope he could be involved.
#348
March 25th, 2008 18:50
However we look at the race, the fact remains that Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die are the best two handicapped horses.
As Russell says, they are very closely matched on their run back in December.
Whether Cloudy stays or not will depend on how he is ridden on the day. You only have to look at another Hemmings horse in Hedgehunter when, back in 2005, Ruby Walsh gave a masterclass in how to ride in The National. The year before Hedgehunter had fallen at the last fence as he collapsed in a heap of exhaustion. A year later he was back going away at the elbow and winning by 14 lengths. Why? David Casey had him leading the entire way and Ruby relaxed him out the back for the first circuit. If Jason Maguire can mimic the Ruby ride I can see Cloudy Lane lasting home.
On a positive note for Comply Or Die…
Newbay Prop, 4th to Comply in the Eider, ran a fine race to come 5th in the Irish National at the weekend. Cruising at the rear for most of the way he crept into the race steadily but the winner had flown.
Elvis Returns, 2nd to Comply in the Eider, is hoping to get in the Scottish National. His trainer has been very bullish about his chances for that race in the Racing Post today, should he get in, and Elvis runs on Saturday at Newbury to increase his chances of making the cut at Ayr.
#349
March 25th, 2008 21:35
Seen as though we are talking about ones to buck the trends recently, how about Chelsea Harbour?
I know he does stretch the limits slightly as he has had 8 races this season, is rated 146, last run was 57days ago come National day and carries 11st 2lbs. But with the handicap being compressed and the other three factors being just outside the acceptance level, he may be one to consider. Especially if the ground eases a bit.
When you consider the races he has been involved in he starts to look quite attractive…
Mid division in last years Irish National and this season has ran in the Paddy Power Chase (although he fell at the first), the Pierse Chase (6th), the Thyestes (5th) and then he has come out and won the Grand National Trial with 11st 10lbs by 7 lengths.
All of the 5 races mentioned are top staying chases in Ireland and he has come out of them with credit.
Comments in the Racing Post today from his trainer Thomas Mullins…
“He’s bouncing and we’re just waiting. I wish the Grand National had been the week after that (latest run), but it was five so we’re hanging on.”
“I’m just biding my time and doing my best to get the horse there in good nick and we’ll take the glory after, if we get it,” he told At The Races.
What do we think?
#350
March 25th, 2008 22:10
IF it rains, Chelsea Harbour will have to be considered
If the ground is good then maybe the weight is a few pounds to high to compete at the sharp end of the race. Did he beat anyone significant in the Grand National trial?
Comply or Die form is certainly looking a bit better! Just a question of whether he will be raring to go soon after a 4m trip round Newcastle with 12 stone on his back (i know i wouldn’t be
!!)
#351
March 25th, 2008 22:17
Going strictly by trends, Chelsea Harbour has had too many runs this season (nine)
#352
March 25th, 2008 23:52
Hi Guys,I know this maybe obvious now but i’ve had a call from my mate saying that D’ARGENT is going to be in the race.So all i can say now is LET IT RAIN!!!Oh and fill your BOOTS!!
#353
March 26th, 2008 00:20
With regards to Chelsea Harbour and Snowy morning both i believe were running in novice chases last season and as such i will be leaving them well alone. The stats say horses who ran in novices are too inexperienced to deal with the trials and tribulations of the national. I know stats are meant to be broken but not for me thanks.
#354
March 26th, 2008 00:21
Anyone know why Joaaci has drifted so badly on betfair??? 80s out to 200s…Anyone with any news from the Pipe camp??
#355
March 26th, 2008 13:01
Weather update from North Liverpool (I live 5 mins from the course) is quite a lot of rain for the remainder of this week. If I was going to have a bet on it, then I’d probably suggest the going will be no better than good to soft (possibly soft) by next weekend. I’d be swerving the good ground horses until later next week when we’ll know more.
#356
March 26th, 2008 15:24
Wacky Says “D’ARGENT is going to be in the race.So all i can say now is LET IT RAIN!!!Oh and fill your BOOTS!!
I have and they are overflowing! One for the dry and one for the wet weather. These are my top two:
1. Comply or Die
2. D’Agent
Not easy this year is it?
I am still looking for that ‘missed horse’ that may suprise me but looking at all the other runners 25/1 or less they all have negative points against them.
Help needed:
Which is the best trend horse now at 33/1 or less not mentioned in the two above?
#357
March 26th, 2008 16:39
I think the options are beginning to take shape!
1. Comply or Die WIN
2. D’Argent = Each Way
3. King Johns Castle? Really interesting as his price has crashed down to 20/1 today, goes on good to soft best i think. 25s available at Betfred. Mainly a 2 1/2 mile chaser but impressed when runner up in 3m chase, running on strongly at end. Big grey horse, could be a good thing. Fits all trends EXCEPT winning over 3 miles BUT as he has not been raced over this distance, its not surprising.
#358
March 26th, 2008 18:01
King John’s Castle has also not won a chase worth over £17,000.
I fail to see the sudden support for this horse. Unless McCoy is choosing it as his ride.
A horse doesn’t win the National that hasn’t won a chase over 3m or further.
I’d be laying him all day long on Betfair.
#359
March 26th, 2008 19:23
Stephen,
I’m not a fan of King John’s Castle but Red Marauder ’01 National Winner didn’t win a 3m or 3m+ chase, he did win a 3m hurdle and was 5th. in the Hennessy and 10th. in the Irish National. But I think he was a one off.
#360
March 26th, 2008 21:02
Red Marauder is an anomaly as opposed to a trend.
#361
March 26th, 2008 21:37
im hesitant to back a horse that hasnt won over 3m stephen but the thing is, he hasn’t been tested, he has shown that he could travel further in recent races. But the price has gone to consider him now (16s….).
There is a “missed horse” in all of this, D’Argent fits trends but looking over his form i cant see him winning (certainly not good enough record to be “filling my boots!”). Comply or Die is the same, he has not got a good record over long distance races but has potential because of the kind weight allocation.
Snowy Morning is perhaps the one we are all over-looking. He is the one horse Smith thought he may have under-weighted, with 11 st 1 that doesnt surprise me. Negatives are his sometime suspect jumping and never been tested over a distance longer than 3m 2. This one has a touch of class though, when considered he is receiving weight from Butler’s Cabin, Slim Pickings etc, the ground will likely to be on the soft side of good which will suit him. 18/1….that will do for me
#362
March 26th, 2008 22:45
Hi Russell,I wish you every luck in the world if you back Snowy Morning.Could you give me a good reason to back a 8yr old novice carrying over 11st thats jumping has been very indifferent this season.You will be getting 9/2 a place if you back SNOWY E-W and i would give you that price it getting ROUND!!! soorry mate only trying to help.
#363
March 26th, 2008 23:35
no problem mate! i mean thats why we’re posting on here, trying to get the most reasoned arguments to the fore.
Right Snowy Morning, the age is not a factor in my mind, Mckelvey should have won last year as an 8 year old. The more important fact is that he is a novice, however he has run in big fields before and so you can’t rule him out on these grounds!
When you say carrying over 11 st, lets not stretch the truth, he has got 11st 1 on his back! Which falls into everybody’s weight boundaries fine (unless you are mistakenly still believing only miraculous horses can win with more than 11 st on its back). The handicaping system is very different, the absolute weight doesn’t matter, it is the relative weight that is important. That is why Phil Smith (i.e. one of the people with most informed opinions) is worried he has under-weighted Snowy Morning. So the horse has got a cracking weight, the lowest weight will be around 10 st 7!!!
Indifferent jumping is of course a worry (but there are bigger problems in my mind with most of the other leading contenders), however he is not known to be a bad jumper, the fall he did have was due to taking a keen hold which hopefully has been corrected. This horse has got class, just go and have a look at its record (13 runs, 6 wins, 3 2nds, 2 3rds). Finishing runner-up to Denman over 3 miles is not bad form in my book. Oh and finally, he goes best on soft ground which looks likely at the moment.
No matter how we look at this National, there is no class horse who will run away with a low weight on its back. At the odds, Snowy Morning has much better prospects than most ahead of him in the betting. But 9/2 for a place / 9/2 for it getting round….well i would say if it gets round, its v likely to be in the places wacky!
#364
March 27th, 2008 00:44
To Stephen,
Sorry if I upset you, I was just keeping the record straight.
Now – Snowy Morning -
At long last we are getting to a class act. This is one horse I have not over-looked, infact he is the only horse (if he wins)that will keep all my trends intact for next year.
He fits all the basic trends and ever trend I can find for the last 17 winners.
A novice maybe but so was No06 valverde and Bindaree. OK, they had 10.8 and 10.4 but Snowy had 10.12 and now everybody has 3 more – so what.
A class horse, 10L. 2nd. to Denman in last yrs. junior gold cup. How does that read now after this yrs. Cheltenham. 9/2 Fav. for the Hennessy and Fav. for this National when the Wts. came out.
I have only 2 doubts, will he run and does he have the right parents to get the distance.
#365
March 27th, 2008 03:02
Has anyone noticed, that in the last 100 years only 2 horses with 10st 09lb have won the National. So, either one is due or hold that bet.
#366
March 27th, 2008 08:36
You didn’t upset me Miinnehoma
Like I have said before, I always welcome input and advise. I shall change my statement to this…
A horse doesn’t win the National that hasn’t won a chase over 3 miles or more…unless everything else falls or gets stuck in the mud ha ha.
#367
March 27th, 2008 11:37
More rain this morning and it’s forecast for at least the next 4 days. Can someone compile a list of mudlarks from the field?
#368
March 27th, 2008 12:01
Phil P Says:
There still time for the wind and sun! I forcast Good/Soft at worse (which should be OK for most runners) and even Good cause Compy or Die is going to fly around and win the GN (a real class and speed horse at a perfect weight with all the trends) – Now where can i book that cruise at a good price for me and the wife!
#369
March 27th, 2008 12:06
10 day forecast here
http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Liverpool-UKXX0083
#370
March 27th, 2008 13:59
Just been reading an article which includes quotes from Tom Taafe. He says –
“It’s a very different race this year because it’s a compressed handicap, the lowest-weighted horse will probably carry 10st 9lb or 10st 10lb I would think,” said County Kildare-based Taaffe.
“That’s never happened in a National before and it’ll be a higher-class race this year.”
I’ve been thinking this myself for some weeks now. I firmly believe the weights trend is there to be shot down in flames this year. I think we could be looking at a winner carrying as much as 11.5 or 11.6 this time round. That puts the likes of Simon and Butlers Cabin right in the mixer. I’ve had a small punt on Butlers yesterday on Betfair at 22-1
#371
March 27th, 2008 14:47
thats similar to my line of thinking BUT having painstakingly gone through the form, i have ruled out Simon and Butler’s Cabin. Butlers at 22/1 is good value however, in my mind there are too many questions over his form this year and the fact that the Cheltenham 4m chase he won was v poor quality. Simon is an out and out stayer, who has been “outpaced” on many 3m-4m races, but he is still going to be giving away a stone to those at the bottom of the handicap. Too much to do i reckon, however is a good candidate for the minor places. I’m sticking to my guns that Comply or Die at the bottom of the weights will run a huge race as will Snowy Morning at only 11st 1. I’m going off D’Argent, in high class races such as the Hennessey, he can not go with the pace. On that occasion he finished behind both Point Barrow and many many lengths behind Always Waining!!
The bottom weight i think will be Philson Run on 10st 7, maybe Taafe knows more about which horses are likely to drop out, i dont know, but 10 st 10 would surprise me, that’d mean Comply or Die would not run!! I’m just worried that Cloudy Lane is so well handicapped that it won’t matter he doesn’t stay, he might be so far ahead that it isn’t an issue.
#372
March 27th, 2008 15:25
Russell,
Totally agree with you over Cloudy Lane. I’ve said it earlier in this thread that I believe he’s got a great chance but the price is prohibitive. Having said that, in any other race bar the National I’d snap up the 7-1 he’s currently at.
#373
March 27th, 2008 15:39
Phil P, the weight trends may be shot down but only if Simon or something with an even bigger weight wins otherwise the trend for the last 18 years will remain intact; the winner has carried bottom weight to 12lbs more than bottom weight. The last five times the handicap has been so constricted;
1980- top weight carried 18lbs more than bottom weight, winner Ben Nevis carrying 12lbs more than b/w;
1978- t/w carried 20lbs more than b/w, winner Lucius carrying 9lbs more than b/w;
1970- t/w carried 19lbs more than b/w, winner Gay Trip carrying top weight;
1969- t/w carried 18lbs more than b/w, winner Highland Wedding carrying 4lbs more than b/w;
1965- t/w carried 11lbs more than b/w, winner Jay Trump carrying 6lbs more than b/w.
#374
March 27th, 2008 18:00
Does anyone have a clue who the Pipe/Johnson team are going to run?.I thought they may not have run OVER THE CREEK-my main hope- as the price was drifting but now JOACCI and VODKA BLEU have drifted heavily.I’m thinking now maybe they’ll run the Creek and pull out the other two as Creeks price has come in.Anybody have a clue?
#375
March 27th, 2008 19:20
Hello All – my final short list for aintree for next sat is as follows
POINT BARROW
DARGENT
CLOUDY LANE
MON MOME
OVER THE CREEK
ROYAL AUCLAIR
PHILSON RUN
All are carrying less than 11 stone and all have won, placed or run in “nationals”… thats the final voting in from the silver birch jury and i have backed them all accordingly … good luck to all………!
#376
March 27th, 2008 19:30
Pete,
I would suggest that neither Joacci or Vodka Bleu will be running given the fact that they’re trading at 290 and 100-1 respectively on Betfair! If they’re running I’ll have a couple of quid on each of them!!
#377
March 27th, 2008 20:20
What do you think of Over The Creek then Phil?,he’s 75s now on Betfair and i’m thinking if Pipe doesn’t run the other two then he’ll run it,surely he would not want to go for the nat with just Comply or die as his only realistic chance!
#378
March 27th, 2008 20:38
No COMPLY OR DIE Birchy?,i’ll admit he’s not one of my major hopes but i’ve had a wee saver on him although i think the Eider flattered him as he wasn’t up against much. We are barking up the same tree here though as i have backed 4 out of your 7 on Betfair,i’ve also bet BLACK APALACHI who i think could go well.
#379
March 27th, 2008 20:46
Sound group of 7 with low weight Silver Birch, even though i guess you will be hoping it rains aplenty to give D’Argent, Philson Run, Point Barrow, Mon Mome a chance!
Think Comply or Die will by by big win bet for the race. Agree with you Pete that the Eider form flatters but still, he will be carrying bottom weight most probably and that puts him on a par with Cloudy Lane following the December meeting. Must have a great shout
#380
March 27th, 2008 21:19
Going is ‘good to soft’ for most of the course but ‘soft’ towards Becher’s and the Canal Turn as of 4pm today (Thursday, March 27).
More rain forecast over the next few days but it is due to brighten up next week, according to the Met Office.
With Aintree’s reputation for drying out quickly, I suspect there will have to be one or two prolonged and heavy showers next Thursday and/or Friday for it to be soft or worse for the big race.
Makes it interesting for D’Argent, Point Barrow and one or two others? I’m surprised their prices haven’t come in a few points.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
#381
March 27th, 2008 21:22
hi all
my winning frame now for national after my really fancied parsons legacy withdrew are
1 comply or die
2 simon
3 point barrow
4 mr. pointment
backed all four e’w at 25s, 33s, 25s, and 18s. i would have like to have backed mckelvey but dont think he will be fit but dont rule out for next year, also lost interest i had in naunton brook.
good luck to all and look foward to after chat on here with post mortem and all our hard luck stories.
#382
March 28th, 2008 10:04
Hi Texas- i left comply or die out because ive still got this nagging nagging doubt about him . it primarily centres around his pulled up in the scottish national and his 6th in the whitbread. i just wonder whether that is good enough for a grand national winner.. ive put a couple of quid on him at big prices on betfair but hes not my main bet . i fully understand where people are coming from in foaming at the mouth about him on this years form . for those on him , i wish u well and hoped he pays for the holiday to barbados this year. if he wins i reckon ill have enough for a long weekend in skegness at mrs miggins executive bed and breakfast hostelry… bring it on
#383
March 28th, 2008 10:21
LOL Silver Birch, if D’argent comes in I suspect you will be found in Marbella and not Skegness! Systems Man and all the great analysers on this site – what do you make of King John’s Castle’s late surge? Prob like you, all I have a good idea of my shortlist and don’t want to part with any cash on a bookies whim – if it’s based on conjecture and not solid trends. Help guys
#384
March 28th, 2008 11:40
Naunton Brook out to 210 on betfair?? is it a non-runner. Was 75 yesterday.
#385
March 28th, 2008 12:16
An intersting act about the winners price on the day:
Since 1985 the winners starting price of the GN has been 28/1 (twice) or less (18/22!) with ONLY four occcasions when it was higher see:
1985 50/1
1995 40/1
2001 33/1
2007 33/1
And as we have just had a big price winner I am confident the 2008 winner will be 28/1 or less at the start of the race so in all honesty stop looking for the winner at any current price over 33/1 and probaly a lot lower. My own opinion for what its worth is that the winner is probably priced today between 6/1 and 25/1.
#386
March 28th, 2008 13:07
That’s good news Systems Man as all five of my bets so far are currently between 6/1 and 20/1.
I’m looking forward to a great race this year!
#387
March 28th, 2008 13:19
Hi All,I think that i’ve got national fever as im going to discard the under 11st rule and back SIMON.Horses have won carrying over 11st and i believe that with the handicap being compacted we have to raise the bar this year.Simon fits all the stats and as i’ve said before this is a weak national.Im confident that my final 3 are D’ARGENT,COMPLY OR DIE(worried murphy not picked yet)and SIMON.OH i’ve got 20/1 & 16/1 about CLOUDY LANE but i will lay off some on betfair as its a stupid price now.GOOD LUCK & hope we smash the bookies!!
#388
March 28th, 2008 13:26
Simon could be a good bet. I think it’s only me that had a cheeky couple of quid on Always Waining but, just in case anyone else was as insane as me, it looks like a National Non runner as is running at Newbury tomorrow. No Full is also very doubtful, but don’t know of anyone who fancied that.
#389
March 28th, 2008 14:16
well i thought always waining was good value seagull!
good work by everyone on here, i think we are all agreed that on the trends Comply or Die is the best win bet
D’Argent fits trends ubt there is varying opinion as to the quality of the horse, in my view, if it is soft he has got good place claims.
Wacky, im flabbergasted you have changed your tune so much!! As ive said before i reckon the weight boundaries have changed, Simon is one thats annoying me, as i think he has got solid place claims but dont think he can win off 11 st 7
King Johns Castle support is a worry (i nearly backed him at 40s…doh), but the horse has not run over 3 miles before. Surely he won’t get the trip? Mckelvey and Slim Picks look unlikely to make the frame again with more weight this year so my bets are as follows:
COMPLY OR DIE ~ win at 12s
SNOWY MORNING ~ each way
and a tiny each way bet on ROYAL AUCLAIR at 66s
oh and of course a £1 on the v realistic tricast!!!:
1. Comply or Die
2. Simon
3. Point Barrow (still can’t figure this one out, v slow but could go well)
#390
March 28th, 2008 14:46
From RP Website..
Of those in the top 40, Knight Legend, Ungaro and Naunton Brook were all ruled out by connections on Thursday, while Alexander Taipan was killed in Monday’s Irish Grand National. Hi Cloy, Billyvoddan and No Full are all reported unlikely starters, while Pipe’s Madison Du Berlais, Joacci and Over The Creek are, like the Paul Nicholls-trained Turko and Opera Mundi, no more than “possibles”.
#391
March 28th, 2008 15:34
Great work Dan. The exact reason I came back on this thread (for about the 5th time today) was to ask what were were expecting to drop out so that Comply Or Die would make the top 40.
It was a shame about Alexander Taipan. also, Naunton Brook was quite a few punters each way shout, so sorry to all that have lost money on this horse (I amongst others can commiserate having seen Parsons Legacy pulled out 10 days ago).
#392
March 28th, 2008 15:37
Yep, I got hit my Parsons and also looks like I will get hit by Turko and, even more costly, Over the Creek. From experience, whenever a trainer states ‘possible runner’ it invariably means ‘non runner’
#393
March 28th, 2008 16:00
i got a bit lucky this time around by not jumping on Over the Creek, was still considering it when the news filtered through this morning. I’m not really a big ante-post better, last year i took McKelvey at 3 figure odds (!) but this year missed the boat on C or D and Cloudy Lane (doh).
Comply or Die definitely in the handicap then which is good news!
#394
March 28th, 2008 17:28
Here in the final result from the Comply or Die jury for this years 2008 Grand National. I have looked and looked and cant see past Comply or Die so will lump my last few pounds on him on top of the montains of dosh i have on him already.
These selections has also been run via this sites Form Guide (and is a great help to thin down numbers or for confirmation of selections) and this is the result (I have discarded any 8 or 13 year old (I wont back Cloudy Lane)- they all meet most of the main trends.
1. Comply of Die 12/1 (best prices today)
2. Point Barrow 20/1
The two above are the only selections in the right price range 6/1 to 28/1 today.
Those below are probably best EW bets for a place as I cant see them winning being too big in price at this stage.
3. D’Argent 40/1
4. Kelami 40/1
5. Royal Auclair 50/1
6. Naunton Brook 66/1 Non Runner? (see Dan Says above)- anyway much too high a price.
Very strange my first pre weight bet was on Point Barrow then I went right of him and here we are with me not ruling him out at this late stage even with no TS 128 rating (remember this has happened once before in the last ten years).
Watch the price of Comply Of Die drop even more before now and the off – the money knows the winner!! (will he be close 2nd Fav or even Joint Fav?)
Wacky – Simon – I just dont believe it. Weight 11-07 (you have to go back to Red Rum in 1977[11.08] to match and Simon is no Red Rum!) and OR 151 (the highest OR in the last ten years was OR 147 in 1998)
#395
March 28th, 2008 17:49
Systems, isn’t Comply Or Die’s OR 150?
#396
March 28th, 2008 18:05
Crisp,
Comply Or Die is OR 139 in the National.
Which is what the trend is based on.
You are correct in thinking that for all other races he is OR 150.
#397
March 28th, 2008 19:07
Hi Systems Man,Remember even if they fit the stats only 1 can win and the stat horses wont be the 1st 3 home. Think SIMON will run a big race probably without winning.Also nearly every year a horse carrying over 11st is placed.Im thinking a nice combination F/cast would be nice to put the icing on the cake for us ALL!!BRING IT ON!!
#398
March 28th, 2008 21:19
Anyone who likes backing at big odds and laying off i found this on another website..Its not my tip but i thought i’d post it anyway in case anyone was interested….
“A bit of news for those who are interested. A mate of mine from the Hollow Bottom said that Twisters is most likely to run Ollie Magern in the National, Irish Raptor and Naunton Brook less likely. Says the horse is well at the moment and thinks he’d have a chance in the race as he’s a front runner. Either way he is available for 380 to win and 50′s the place on betfair last night. Worth a bet now and lay him off when he’s declared and he’ll be much shorter. I’ve had a few quid.”
#399
March 28th, 2008 23:10
Shocked not many mentioning Slim Pickings recently, can’t see any negatives with him. Went close last year, this time comes back a year better having had a full years prep with a excellent trainer and been laid out all season with just one race in mind. Has all the echoes of Hedgehunter the year after he fell. Only fly in the ointment I can see would be very soft ground… which would play nicely into the hands of my other main bet Black Apalachi
Anyway good luck to everyone hope its a great race and all horses come back safely. Also fingers crossed we get to see the great Kauto Star and Masterminded on thursday and friday as well.
#400
March 29th, 2008 02:26
It’s great that we can give our own opinions on this blog, be they right or wrong. It’s all about opinions.
So I would like to state,
Sorry to break the trend but I do not agree that on the trends, Comply Or Die is the best win bet.
I suppose it depends on what trends you are looking at.
I do agree on the surface he is an obvious candidate but I think he is 2 obvious.
Like Silver Birch’ he was a star in the making 2 or 3 seasons ago, not as successful as Silver, especially with this race in mind. Silver won the Becher’s and the Welsh National. C.O.D. PU. in the Scottish and Welsh National.
In his last race he won the Eider but can you seriously compare the Eider in class with the Welsh Nat., Scottish Nat. or the Bechers chase.
If he wins I will have to adjust my 17 yr. trends.
If he wins please foget everything I just said, I always knew he was a cracker.
#401
March 29th, 2008 12:41
The last 17 winners- since fences were modified- although some sequences/ trends last longer.
A= age;W=weight carried above bottom weight; PR= number of prep runs that season; NF= non finshes in races that season; LR= days since last run.
An asterisk means that they ran in the National before, none of them were french bred and all of them had ran at least ten chase-though not sure if they were all chases or with one or two novice chases thrown in?
A W PR NF LR
07 10* +4 4 0 32
06 10 +4 6 1 27
05 9* +10 6 0 49
04 12* +10 5 1 28
03 10 +7 6 0 20
02 8 +4 0 25
01 11* +11 6 1 42
00 9 +12 6 0 20
99 9 0 6 0 24
98 10 +5 5 0 35
97 9 0 6 0 23
96 10 +7 5 2 16
95 12* +6 4 1 35
94 11 +8 2 0 23
92 8 +7 4 0 35
91 11 +6 7 0 23
90 11 +6 6 0 25
Just a couple of things to think about. Rough Quest stands out as failed to finish twice and only had a run 16 days before the National in 96 but he was something like a stone well in at the weights. Miinnehoma who had only 2 prep runs in 94, was a every talented horse who was lucky with the handicap in 94. Seagram who had 7 prep runs in 91 was a few pounds light in the handicap as he had won at the Cheltenham festival and of course narrowly beat 91 gold cup winner Garrison Savannah who was trying to buck an even bigger trend of carrying 15lbs more than bottom weight to victory.
The days since last run column is interesting in that if you take out ’01 when a lot the runners couldn’t run because of foot and mouth and the mud bath on National day, only Hedgehunter has won having had his last race more than 35 days before the National. In fact I think apart from these two and Aldaniti in ’81, the last thirty odd winners have raced within 35 days before the big day. However, I suppose the forty day plus figures could be the start of a new trend.
#402
March 29th, 2008 13:19
Miinnehoma tell us what your 17 year trends say who are the top three this year please?
By the way Comply or Die 2nd in Sun Alliance Chase the 2005 (beaten 3 L). If he had gone on the 1,2,3rd or even 4th in Gold Cup there is no way he woud be running off OR 139(!!) with 10.09. He was 11.12 in the Eider Chase – this horse is going to fly around Aintree with a feather weight!!
I make him a better bet than Silver Birch.
Dont forget his 4th in the Hennessy in 2005 with 11.07 beaton only 5 3/4L (was often used as prep race for the GN in the past)
26Nov05 Nby 27Gd Cl1 G3HcCh,71K 11-7 4/19 5¾L, Trabolgan[12/1] 11-12
#403
March 29th, 2008 13:54
Comply Or Die
PS – What is the logic of following a 10 year Grand National trend and at the same time disregarding another 10 year trend on the Eider – it suits the horse. Are we following the trends or are we now predicting when they will change.
#404
March 29th, 2008 16:17
I understand what you are saying Miinnehoma but for a start, the Irish horses have won 6 of the last 10 Nationals and they aren’t likely to run in an Eider. I think you have to take each race on it’s merits and carrying top weight around Newcastle in Good to Soft ground over 4m 1f sounds pretty good to me, whatever you call the race.
The trends relate to conditions in the National itself as opposed to other events. The reason you look at trends from other races is to find more positives or indeed negatives.
Based purely on Grand National trends and stats Comply Or Die has a very nice profile.
#405
March 29th, 2008 20:13
Comply Or Die,
Please don’t get me wrong.
C.O.D. has a very good profile, so has D’Argent but at some stage we have to narrow down the field using what ever stats and trends we can get our hands on.
Both have a few faults on my trends, so I have to rule them out. They may be placed(win) but all my work is based on finding the winner only. The trends only bring us so far and then it’s down to our own opinion.
If either horse wins it will be no great surprise, it just means I will have to adjust my trends for next year.
If Point Barrow wins I will have to throw the trends and myself out the window. Now that could be a good tip.
To be honest I am finding it difficult to pick a winner. Whats the betting on a void race.
OK, don’t all laugh at once. I will give 4 win and also 4 place.
Win – Butler’s Cabin, Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane and Mon Mome.
Place – Cornish Rebel, Idle Talk, Royal Auclair and Vodka Bleu.
#406
March 29th, 2008 22:29
Just a little spanner to put in the works when it comes to COMPLY OR DIE-Where did ELVIS RETURNS come today on ground the trainer said it would go well on? Add to that Timmy Murphy can’t make up his mind which M PIPE horse to ride!!If he can’t make up his mind then thats a line thru for me as VODKA BLEU is a french bred!!Im going to go over the cliff with D’ARGENT as i think ALAN KING is a god when it comes to training horses and this horse is proof as he said last year it wasn’t a national horse.Well watch out next saturday as im going to be KING for 1 DAY!!!!
#407
March 29th, 2008 22:35
I think we have all nailed our colours to the mast by now and have our ante post tickets on.
So with a week to go it’s good luck to everyone on here with their choices and I hope there are no hard luck stories after the winner is crowned.
#408
March 30th, 2008 10:06
Royal Auclair is out. See below from Racing Post website. Sorry to all of you who backed him EW.
Nicholls’ big-race challenge was reduced by one yesterday with the news that Royal Auclair, a faller in the last two Grand Nationals but runner-up to Hedgehunter in 2005, will not be in the line-up this time.
Nicholls said: “Royal Auclair has already had two hard races this month, and we decided he’s been to Aintree enough times, so we’ll wait for the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on the final day of the season.”
#409
March 30th, 2008 10:29
Hi everyone,
Great info on here – thanks very much. I’m going to set up a selections thread after the five days come out and maybe all the regulars (and anyone else who would like to) could come on there and post their selections so we could have an easy reference point for what we have all gone for in the big race. That way we can come back and congratulate the winners (and commiserate with the losers!).
#410
March 30th, 2008 10:41
After having another look at the weights and after reading trainers comments about various horses I think the number 40 horse could be Dunbrody Millar. This would mean bottom weight on 10st 6.
We will know more by tomorrow when the entries are released. I will then scour through the field again and post my selections.
#411
March 30th, 2008 11:06
Shame about Royal Auclair. I thought he had a good chance of a place. It’s a bit cheeky of Paul Nicholls to announce him as a non-runner in these circumstances just days after being quoted as confirming that Liam Heard will ride him at Aintree.
Some punters will feel THEY are being taken for a ride.
Quote from the Daily Mirror (March 28, 2008):
“We have three definite runners in the Grand National at this stage,” said the champion trainer.
“Mr Pointment will run and Sam Thomas definitely rides having won the Becher Chase on him over the National fences.
“Liam Heard rides Royal Auclair and Cornish Sett is a definite runner, although I have not finalised jockey plans for him,” said Nicholls.
#412
March 30th, 2008 11:20
Yes Johnny .,,,Ditto – the whole royal auclair decision seems very strange . 3 days after confirming its a definite .. all of a sudden its not running …..it doesnt sound like the horse is injured so if the horse had already had two hard runs this month and there was doubt over its participation then why was it declared a definite on thu…