How important is current form for the Grand National?
February 19th, 2008Last Saturday saw a large number of Grand National entrants having one of their last runs before the big race in April.
Tear up your Ante-Post tickets?
However, anyone holding an ante -post voucher for most of the horses sighted at the weekend must be wishing they could have a refund as the displays of horses to the front of the betting such as the likes of Point Barrow, Bewleys Berry, Butler’s Cabin and Preacher Boy were disappointing to say the least.
I realise for some of these horses its all about Aintree and everything else is irrelevant but can we really accept poor performances and still feel positive about our long range selections?
More negatives than positives at Haydock
Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry ran in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock, a race that was littered with possible runners in the big race at Aintree. Of those likely to run perhaps only D’Argent has run an encouraging race with the other entrants either not endorsing their claims (Captain Corelli, Irish Raptor) or running so badly that this must be seen as a negative (Idle Talk, Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry).
Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry were, in my opinion, particularly disappointing. Point Barrow has been given a tender start to the season in an attempt to reduce his handicap mark and he appeared to make suggestions of returning to his best form when finishing fourth at Gowran Park in January. With the handicap mark secured it seems odd to come over to England for a big race if the idea is just for a blow out and he appeared to be travelling well for much of the race only to run out of steam in the last third of the race. This must be a big worry for his Aintree supporters.
Bewleys Berry was only having his second run of the season and has run poorly at Haydock before so perhaps his supporters can take some heart from that, especially as he went on to run well in the National after a poor run in this race last year. Nevertheless, I don’t like to see horses running THAT badly before a big race and I would have to think very carefully before parting with any cash on these (or any of the other poor performers) prior to the National.
Butler’s Cabin still to hit form
One other horse’s performance struck me as noteworthy over the weekend – Butler’s Cabin just doesn’t appear to be the same horse as last year at the moment. I realise the track may not have suited him at Wincanton but he was being pushed and shoved from a very long way out and I just wonder if he has lost some of his enthusiasm. He may just need a bit of sun on his back to find his form but I couldn’t touch him for the National in his current form.
Current Form - What is your view?
It made me consider the relevance of current form with a view to winning the National? How important is it to you that your selection has some good recent form prior to running in the big race? Or do you prefer a softly, softly approach knowing that the form is being saved for the big day?
I’ll be looking at how the last 10 winner’s recent form affected their chances and what sort of break they had before their win at Aintree to see if we can glean any info from this viewpoint next week but in the meantime let me know how you feel about current form and how much it affects your selections for the Grand National.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I think there has to be a definition on what should be deemed to be a fair grand national trial i.e running encouragingly - finishing in the fisrt half dozen without the jockey getting over serious on the horse ) I dont think point barrow or bewleys berry did either and being a big point barrow supporter im now seriously concerned . The only fading hope of light for pb is that his form figures going into the irish national were littered with duck eggs and he came good on the day but i dont think you can enter such a competitive race at aintree without a top 6 finish posted in ur last race . the stats seem to support this . bindaree is the exception when he finished seventh at cheltenham . i know theres still seven weeks to ago but i maintain unless pb traps again in a small hurdle race in ireland before 5th april hes got a stiff task on his hands
admin Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Hi Silver Birch,
I’m with you and have nailed my colours to Point Barrow but I was left very disappointed after Haydock. I like the fact he has a background from the Irish National and was therefore thinking that stamina should be assured but his running on Saturday seemed to suggest the opposite. My only other hope was that it was a reaction to the blinkers. Sometimes horses take to blinkers on their first run (as he seemed to at Gowran Park) and then resent them thereafter but I have a feeling I may be clutching at straws and my voucher is heading for the recycling bin.
Back to the drawing board?
Man O Bong Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Hey guys, coincidentally i have been running through and drawing up a shortlist just today and have come to the conclusion the Bewleys Berry is going to head that list. As far as a Grand National Trial? I dont think there can really be one, not in a dress rehearsal sense anyway. The race itself is so unique. Another side point is of course that from a serious betting point of view i dont consider the race itself as a serious opportunity to have a bet, but rather one to go through the card, make a couple of selections, either form or trend based and at the end either congratulate yourself for highlighting a winner, or go back with hindsight and identify that snippet of form from the winner you didnt pick up on and so drew a line through its chances. Anyway back to the short-list. s mentioned Bewleys Berry is top for me at present whilst others have to include Simon who was going as well as BB last time round and should enter calculations. Of course as mentioned there is the trends angle to look at and the much fated weight issue of winners coming from the 10-11st area in which not only BB is in, but also the aforementioned POINT BARROW along with ante post favourite SNOWY MORNING. I am keeping an eye on both FERDY MURPHY and JONJO at the back end this term and the latter of course has BUTLERS CABIN in at 11st, so top of the preferred weight trend but not incapable of being involved. This short-list is sure to change a little over the coming weeks as we see some of these and others not included running, but they form the basis of my most interested attention at this stage and we shall see how the curent form of these and some emerging chances develops over the coming racing weeks.
Showlad Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Hi All
One thing for sure was D’Argent’s 4th last Saturday was definitely encouraging and a good positive warm up for the big one.
I notice on bestbetting that both Character Building and Thisthatandtother have been by and large removed from the odds. Does this prob mean they have withdrawn?
Do we have a page on this site that updates us on withdrawals/rumoured withdrawals? If not, it would be GREAT!!Instead of having to wait until Mar 4 at the next cut.
New to this site, but am lovin it. My only complaint (a positive one at that) is I wish there was an entry every day in the blog, to feed our hunger for the big day