Hedgehunter/Numbersixvalverde – Signs not encouraging for former winners
January 10th, 2008Some people love them, some people hate them but statistics are now a big part of the information allocated alongside the big races in the racing calendar.
No race is bigger than the Grand National and one of the most interesting stats is the poor record of previous winners when they come back to try and win the race on further occasions.
Usually horses with course and distance victories would have a distinct advantage over rivals without course experience, especially on a track as individual as Aintree but it would appear that the handicapper usually takes too stern a view of these previous performances and no horse since Red Rum in 1977 has been able to repeat a victory in the Grand National.
Previous Winners in 2008?
There are likely to be two previous winners in the race in 2008 in Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde.
Both have unsuccessfully attempted to win the race again since their victories, Hedgehunter finishing a gallant 2nd in 2006 and 9th in 2007 and Numbersixvalverde finishing 6th in 2007.
So, does this mean we have two relatively well fancied horses we can just remove from our calculations? Both horses figure at under 33/1 with some bookmakers but it would appear, if we can believe the stats, that their chances are slim.
Current Form?
Hedgehunter is now 12 years old and his stable reported he burst a blood vessel on his reappearance. He is possibly due to run over hurdles shortly before a possible run in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown.
It would seem a big ask for Hedgehunter to come back to the sort of form of a couple of seasons ago but perhaps the handicapper will relent and give him a bit more of a chance this year? After all Red Rum did get beat in 75 and 76 before regaining the National in 77 so perhaps Hedgehunter could do the same?
Age also appears to be against Numbersixvalverde emulating Red Rum and reports seem to suggest he has been slow to come to hand this season.
Perhaps, then, we can eliminate these former winners from our equation? Does the handicapper make it too difficult generally for winners of the National to repeat the performance?
Let us know what you think.
