Grand National Weights announced
February 5th, 2008The announcement of the Grand National weights has seen the usual clamour for value start in earnest but some of the gambles seem a little off beam to me.
Beef Or Salmon? Neither, thanks!
Strangest of all is the news that a couple of firms indicate that there has been money for top weight Beef Or Salmon. Surely 11st 12lb at 12 years old is a massive ask? As good a horse as he has been, I’m not sure the National would have ever been his ‘cup of tea’. I think the owner of that ante post wager can tear it up pretty quickly.
Bizarre to also see Character Building being backed when his trainer stated this week that the Irish National was the more likely target? Now, trainers do change their minds (!) but it seems a dangerous game to be backing the horse at this stage.
Point Barrow backed
I’m quite pleased to see Point Barrow being cut into 20/1 with most firms as the 25/1 voucher has pride of place in my Ante Post collection. 10st 10lb seems very fair……
Not For Me
Not sure I’d fancy getting involved with Mr Pointment with 11-8. That looks a tad harsh.
The worst price post-weights I’ve seen is 33/1 with Coral about Wonderkid. Not sure how they expect him to get in off 8st 11lbs with 148 above him? I think they would be quite safe at three times that price!
What about you?
Who stands out for you now that the weights have been announced? Who do you think has been treated harshly? Let us know your ideas.
joey Says:
February 5th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Bewleys Berry, looked likely winner until falling,good chance this year.Same applies to Simon.Pick on the day depending on the ground?
Dunbrody Millar best at bigger price
Pav Says:
February 5th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
West Tip won the National carrying 10st 11 lbs having fallen at Bechers second time round the previous year.So how about Bewley’s Berry repeating the feat?
Mr Pointment looked superb over the National fences but he seems to have been given a lot of weight. I can see him running a great race though.
wacky Says:
February 5th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Will find it hard after losing my money at the 1st last year,but a fall the previous year doesn’t retract from winning this race. So step forward POINT BARROW 20/1 looks good value.
trevor Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 2:08 am
What a ridiculous price Snowy morning is,he,s only had 7 chase starts(does,nt meet stats)and has a lot of weight on what he,s actually achieved on the racecourse.If we are being told that this is his aim this season then the trainer is having a laugh,there is no way he should be aiming a young horse of such potential at such a tough race bearing in mind its lack of experience and hefty burden.12/1 on betfair ! come on boys,think you should be advising your readers to avoid this one,very bad value.
bob vipers Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
i like bewleys berry on 10st 11lbs and mckelvey on10st 11lbs if fit? my 3rd horse against the field is point barrow on10st 10lbs providing he jumps the 1st ok? so there you go ive backed all 3 already looking forward to a great race and a winner.
Steve Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I backed Character Building a while back at 48s so Im hoping that he does run - now 30s on Betfair so perhaps I could lay off. Agree that Snowy Mornings odds are ridiculous - BTW you can lay a place at 3.9/1 on BF at the moment.
trevor Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Nice one steve,glad to see someone else realises bad value when they see it,its basically a case of the rags over hyping a horse for publicity,i believe pricewise tipped Snowy morning for the gold cup.Regarding your bet on character building,i,de lay it off for a profit,if you read the comments after its run at cheltenham behind butlers cabin it actually suggested dropping it back in trip due to it coming under strong pressure and leaning into the riders whip,it had travelled extremely well in the race,it has only had 7 chase starts anyway steve and lacks experience.It is the norm for trainers to run these inexperienced chasers in these big handicaps,so having a well handicapped horse,but applying this theory to the national has,nt worked in recent nationals,which is,nt surprising when you think about it.These are the most recent winners and the number of chase runs they had prior to them winning the national,Silver birch 13,Numbersixvalverde 10,Hedgehunter 11,amberleigh house 37,Montys pass 41,Bindaree 15,Red marauder 13,Papillon 24,Bobbyjo 19,Earth summit 25.
Steve Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Yes Trevor - completely agree. So why on earth have I got an ante post bet on Character Building - I cant recall why I put that on… it hasnt even won a decent chase. Better go and lay off quick!
What is everyones opinion on this….. with 75 runnersallotted weights of 10-4 + is it worth spending any time looking at those below… will 35+ pull out??? Is Beef or Salmon a definate runner - ie very unlikely to be weight increases this year?
trevor Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Well steve,Cornish rebel is in at 40th position at the moment, barring injury, mckelvey 10st 11 lb,sir rembrandt 10st 10lb,no full 10st 9lb(same weight as cornish rebel),point barrow 10st 10lb,bewleys berry 10st 11lb,nadover 10st 6lb(above character building),cloudy lane 10st 8lb,butlers cabin 11st,mr pointment 11st 8lb,royal auclair 10st 7lb,lami 10st 12lb,simon 11st 4lb,d;argent 10st 9lbs,philson run 10st 5lb and beef or salmon 11st 12lb(a runner as of now,states trainer.quoted on the sporting life site)are definate runners,so that reduces your chances of character building getting in by 15,so your bet is,nt looking good when you think that of the remaining 49 above yours you need 24(might be more,not sure about ruling regarding horses on same weight,6 in your case) to drop out,you never know but coupled with the other stats i referred to to,i would personally lay it off.
admin Says:
February 7th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Trevor,
I’m with you on Snowy Morning. Looks atrocious value to me now with even the trainer saying he thinks the horse had been given a raw deal at the weights (although that could be a bit of a smoke screen). OK so the trainer knows how to win the race but the horse has very little in the way of experience for a race like this. I wouldn’t be interested at twice that price. Don’t worry Trevor, I think our readers will be getting a pretty clear idea that we don’t fancy Snowy Morning by the time the race rolls round!
trevor Says:
February 7th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Haha,its only february the 7th,we,ll have the bookies running for cover before cheltenham.Its just a case of using previous years as a guide along with a bit of common sense,its not that amazing how the same stats turn up again and again,its basically just telling you the requirments in a given range,but a lot of people not only get sucked in by the hype from the papers but are lazy and don,t do their homework,so for anyone thats looking for this years winner here,s a starter for 10(bamber gascoigne),any horse that has previous experience of jumping the aintree fences falls into the top 10% of horses(in my opinion)with an outstanding chance of winning,recent examples,Silver birch(won 2007)fell after being hampered 15th in the 2006 national,won 2004 becher.Hedgehunter(won 2005)fell at last in 2004 national when a close 3rd.Amberleigh house(won 2004)2nd in becher 2002 and 2003,won it in 2001,badly hampered and brought down 8th in 2001 national.Montys pass(won 2003)2nd in the topham 2002.Enough said,start studying and post your ideas of this years winner here.
Steve Says:
February 7th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
OK - Character Building has been layed off… still cant work out why I backed it in the first place.. Only 7 chase runs adn hasnt won a decent chase.
Ok so Ive crossed out anything set to carry over 11st 5
Ive eliminated anything yet to win at over 3 miles
Ive ruled out anything which has run in less than 10 chases (well Ive said 9 in case they have a prep race between now and aintree)
7 year olds and under have gone
13 year olds and over too
Crossed off those at 10-3 and below as unlikely to run
So nearly there… just 37 left now!!!!!
Systems Man Says:
February 7th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Dont tell anyone!
I have studied the Grand National for many years now and it is one of the best races in the whole yesr for trends. I have won lots of money just on this one race over the years but i will be honest and confess I have not won for the last three years.
But his year will be different.
My pre weights bets were on:
Point Barrow
Bewleys Berry
But here is the best trend horse of them all and still at 33/1 at Coral/Hills (was 40/1 until yesterday)and the name of this horse is ………
Parsons Legacy
Just take one look at its form it meets trend after trend after trend.
Just look:
OR 140 (spot on)
Weight 10.07 (spot on and likley to run)
3rd in last years Scotish National (over 33f)
Won class 1 chase (39K)
Best RPR 152 (got the class to win)
Best TS rating 141 (got the speed to win)
Bags of experiance of big HC Chases and aged 10 (spot on)
Consistently good results for the last year
Dont tell anyone - lets keep the price at 33/1 for a while. I will have bit more tommorrow!
Should be the Fav!
Now someone tell me why it wont win?
trevor Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Right, aintree and cheltenham always aim for ground on the dead side of good,but looking at parsons legacy,s form it appears to prefer good/soft or better,his 1st win was at newbury 19f g/f,his 2nd and 3rd wins were both on good to soft,his 4th on good and his 5th win he beat preacher boy 2 1/2 lths receiving 6lb,again on good,now this is the interesting part,3 weeks later he ran in the hennessy cognac gold cup on soft,he was 15 3/4 lths behind preacher boy receiving only a pound this time,sugggesting he had run some 13 1/4 lbs below form,interestingly he had previously been beaten 2 1/4 lths by juveigneur on good,but in the hennessy he was 24 3/4 lths behind the same horse receiving 10lb,meaning he had run 31 1/2 lb below his good ground form with this horse.He ran a sinker on heavy 5 weeks later,after a 2 1/2 month break he ran a cracker on g/s against cloudy bay and again giving 15lb to hot weld on good to firm.Looking at the overall picture i think the further he goes the better he,ll want the ground,extreme distances on soft to will find him out,which suggests there is a stamina deficiency,its a possible as long as the grounds on the dead side of good and no softer.
wacky Says:
February 10th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
One stat you have missed is that french bred horse dont win the national.apparently they are bred for speed now.will add another stat later in the week.Since i found the trends i’ve had the winner for the last 3yrs.
trevor Says:
February 10th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Yes,i knew about the french bred angle,apparently that is correct,they are bred more for speed,hense the reason they don,t win the national.I think these french bred chasers can jump a bit flat at times as well,would,nt want to see kauto going round aintree with the odd liberty he takes,cert for a fall.
trevor Says:
February 10th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
A small stat for those who like the 2 1/2 milers have a chance theory(haha),every winner since little polveir in 1989 had won over at least 3 miles(in many cases it was 3 1/2 miles)prior to winning at aintree.I imagine it actually goes back a lot further ,but thats not that surprising given the nature of the race we,re talking about.