Comments on: Grand National Weights announced http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/ The Story of the 2008 Grand National Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:58:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: trevor http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-46 trevor Sun, 10 Feb 2008 22:38:07 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-46 A small stat for those who like the 2 1/2 milers have a chance theory(haha),every winner since little polveir in 1989 had won over at least 3 miles(in many cases it was 3 1/2 miles)prior to winning at aintree.I imagine it actually goes back a lot further ,but thats not that surprising given the nature of the race we,re talking about. A small stat for those who like the 2 1/2 milers have a chance theory(haha),every winner since little polveir in 1989 had won over at least 3 miles(in many cases it was 3 1/2 miles)prior to winning at aintree.I imagine it actually goes back a lot further ,but thats not that surprising given the nature of the race we,re talking about.

]]> By: trevor http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-45 trevor Sun, 10 Feb 2008 20:19:22 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-45 Yes,i knew about the french bred angle,apparently that is correct,they are bred more for speed,hense the reason they don,t win the national.I think these french bred chasers can jump a bit flat at times as well,would,nt want to see kauto going round aintree with the odd liberty he takes,cert for a fall. Yes,i knew about the french bred angle,apparently that is correct,they are bred more for speed,hense the reason they don,t win the national.I think these french bred chasers can jump a bit flat at times as well,would,nt want to see kauto going round aintree with the odd liberty he takes,cert for a fall.

]]> By: wacky http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-43 wacky Sun, 10 Feb 2008 19:51:59 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-43 One stat you have missed is that french bred horse dont win the national.apparently they are bred for speed now.will add another stat later in the week.Since i found the trends i've had the winner for the last 3yrs. One stat you have missed is that french bred horse dont win the national.apparently they are bred for speed now.will add another stat later in the week.Since i found the trends i’ve had the winner for the last 3yrs.

]]> By: trevor http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-41 trevor Thu, 07 Feb 2008 23:48:33 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-41 Right, aintree and cheltenham always aim for ground on the dead side of good,but looking at parsons legacy,s form it appears to prefer good/soft or better,his 1st win was at newbury 19f g/f,his 2nd and 3rd wins were both on good to soft,his 4th on good and his 5th win he beat preacher boy 2 1/2 lths receiving 6lb,again on good,now this is the interesting part,3 weeks later he ran in the hennessy cognac gold cup on soft,he was 15 3/4 lths behind preacher boy receiving only a pound this time,sugggesting he had run some 13 1/4 lbs below form,interestingly he had previously been beaten 2 1/4 lths by juveigneur on good,but in the hennessy he was 24 3/4 lths behind the same horse receiving 10lb,meaning he had run 31 1/2 lb below his good ground form with this horse.He ran a sinker on heavy 5 weeks later,after a 2 1/2 month break he ran a cracker on g/s against cloudy bay and again giving 15lb to hot weld on good to firm.Looking at the overall picture i think the further he goes the better he,ll want the ground,extreme distances on soft to will find him out,which suggests there is a stamina deficiency,its a possible as long as the grounds on the dead side of good and no softer. Right, aintree and cheltenham always aim for ground on the dead side of good,but looking at parsons legacy,s form it appears to prefer good/soft or better,his 1st win was at newbury 19f g/f,his 2nd and 3rd wins were both on good to soft,his 4th on good and his 5th win he beat preacher boy 2 1/2 lths receiving 6lb,again on good,now this is the interesting part,3 weeks later he ran in the hennessy cognac gold cup on soft,he was 15 3/4 lths behind preacher boy receiving only a pound this time,sugggesting he had run some 13 1/4 lbs below form,interestingly he had previously been beaten 2 1/4 lths by juveigneur on good,but in the hennessy he was 24 3/4 lths behind the same horse receiving 10lb,meaning he had run 31 1/2 lb below his good ground form with this horse.He ran a sinker on heavy 5 weeks later,after a 2 1/2 month break he ran a cracker on g/s against cloudy bay and again giving 15lb to hot weld on good to firm.Looking at the overall picture i think the further he goes the better he,ll want the ground,extreme distances on soft to will find him out,which suggests there is a stamina deficiency,its a possible as long as the grounds on the dead side of good and no softer.

]]> By: Systems Man http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-40 Systems Man Thu, 07 Feb 2008 21:35:09 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-40 Dont tell anyone! I have studied the Grand National for many years now and it is one of the best races in the whole yesr for trends. I have won lots of money just on this one race over the years but i will be honest and confess I have not won for the last three years. But his year will be different. My pre weights bets were on: Point Barrow Bewleys Berry But here is the best trend horse of them all and still at 33/1 at Coral/Hills (was 40/1 until yesterday)and the name of this horse is ......... Parsons Legacy Just take one look at its form it meets trend after trend after trend. Just look: OR 140 (spot on) Weight 10.07 (spot on and likley to run) 3rd in last years Scotish National (over 33f) Won class 1 chase (39K) Best RPR 152 (got the class to win) Best TS rating 141 (got the speed to win) Bags of experiance of big HC Chases and aged 10 (spot on) Consistently good results for the last year Dont tell anyone - lets keep the price at 33/1 for a while. I will have bit more tommorrow! Should be the Fav! Now someone tell me why it wont win? Dont tell anyone!
I have studied the Grand National for many years now and it is one of the best races in the whole yesr for trends. I have won lots of money just on this one race over the years but i will be honest and confess I have not won for the last three years.

But his year will be different.

My pre weights bets were on:
Point Barrow
Bewleys Berry

But here is the best trend horse of them all and still at 33/1 at Coral/Hills (was 40/1 until yesterday)and the name of this horse is ………

Parsons Legacy

Just take one look at its form it meets trend after trend after trend.

Just look:
OR 140 (spot on)
Weight 10.07 (spot on and likley to run)
3rd in last years Scotish National (over 33f)
Won class 1 chase (39K)
Best RPR 152 (got the class to win)
Best TS rating 141 (got the speed to win)
Bags of experiance of big HC Chases and aged 10 (spot on)
Consistently good results for the last year

Dont tell anyone - lets keep the price at 33/1 for a while. I will have bit more tommorrow!

Should be the Fav!
Now someone tell me why it wont win?

]]> By: Steve http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-39 Steve Thu, 07 Feb 2008 15:32:28 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-39 OK - Character Building has been layed off... still cant work out why I backed it in the first place.. Only 7 chase runs adn hasnt won a decent chase. Ok so Ive crossed out anything set to carry over 11st 5 Ive eliminated anything yet to win at over 3 miles Ive ruled out anything which has run in less than 10 chases (well Ive said 9 in case they have a prep race between now and aintree) 7 year olds and under have gone 13 year olds and over too Crossed off those at 10-3 and below as unlikely to run So nearly there... just 37 left now!!!!! OK - Character Building has been layed off… still cant work out why I backed it in the first place.. Only 7 chase runs adn hasnt won a decent chase.

Ok so Ive crossed out anything set to carry over 11st 5

Ive eliminated anything yet to win at over 3 miles

Ive ruled out anything which has run in less than 10 chases (well Ive said 9 in case they have a prep race between now and aintree)

7 year olds and under have gone

13 year olds and over too

Crossed off those at 10-3 and below as unlikely to run

So nearly there… just 37 left now!!!!!

]]> By: trevor http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-38 trevor Thu, 07 Feb 2008 14:30:07 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-38 Haha,its only february the 7th,we,ll have the bookies running for cover before cheltenham.Its just a case of using previous years as a guide along with a bit of common sense,its not that amazing how the same stats turn up again and again,its basically just telling you the requirments in a given range,but a lot of people not only get sucked in by the hype from the papers but are lazy and don,t do their homework,so for anyone thats looking for this years winner here,s a starter for 10(bamber gascoigne),any horse that has previous experience of jumping the aintree fences falls into the top 10% of horses(in my opinion)with an outstanding chance of winning,recent examples,Silver birch(won 2007)fell after being hampered 15th in the 2006 national,won 2004 becher.Hedgehunter(won 2005)fell at last in 2004 national when a close 3rd.Amberleigh house(won 2004)2nd in becher 2002 and 2003,won it in 2001,badly hampered and brought down 8th in 2001 national.Montys pass(won 2003)2nd in the topham 2002.Enough said,start studying and post your ideas of this years winner here. Haha,its only february the 7th,we,ll have the bookies running for cover before cheltenham.Its just a case of using previous years as a guide along with a bit of common sense,its not that amazing how the same stats turn up again and again,its basically just telling you the requirments in a given range,but a lot of people not only get sucked in by the hype from the papers but are lazy and don,t do their homework,so for anyone thats looking for this years winner here,s a starter for 10(bamber gascoigne),any horse that has previous experience of jumping the aintree fences falls into the top 10% of horses(in my opinion)with an outstanding chance of winning,recent examples,Silver birch(won 2007)fell after being hampered 15th in the 2006 national,won 2004 becher.Hedgehunter(won 2005)fell at last in 2004 national when a close 3rd.Amberleigh house(won 2004)2nd in becher 2002 and 2003,won it in 2001,badly hampered and brought down 8th in 2001 national.Montys pass(won 2003)2nd in the topham 2002.Enough said,start studying and post your ideas of this years winner here.

]]> By: admin http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-37 admin Thu, 07 Feb 2008 11:30:51 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-37 Trevor, I'm with you on Snowy Morning. Looks atrocious value to me now with even the trainer saying he thinks the horse had been given a raw deal at the weights (although that could be a bit of a smoke screen). OK so the trainer knows how to win the race but the horse has very little in the way of experience for a race like this. I wouldn't be interested at twice that price. Don't worry Trevor, I think our readers will be getting a pretty clear idea that we don't fancy Snowy Morning by the time the race rolls round! Trevor,
I’m with you on Snowy Morning. Looks atrocious value to me now with even the trainer saying he thinks the horse had been given a raw deal at the weights (although that could be a bit of a smoke screen). OK so the trainer knows how to win the race but the horse has very little in the way of experience for a race like this. I wouldn’t be interested at twice that price. Don’t worry Trevor, I think our readers will be getting a pretty clear idea that we don’t fancy Snowy Morning by the time the race rolls round!

]]> By: trevor http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-36 trevor Wed, 06 Feb 2008 20:50:48 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-36 Well steve,Cornish rebel is in at 40th position at the moment, barring injury, mckelvey 10st 11 lb,sir rembrandt 10st 10lb,no full 10st 9lb(same weight as cornish rebel),point barrow 10st 10lb,bewleys berry 10st 11lb,nadover 10st 6lb(above character building),cloudy lane 10st 8lb,butlers cabin 11st,mr pointment 11st 8lb,royal auclair 10st 7lb,lami 10st 12lb,simon 11st 4lb,d;argent 10st 9lbs,philson run 10st 5lb and beef or salmon 11st 12lb(a runner as of now,states trainer.quoted on the sporting life site)are definate runners,so that reduces your chances of character building getting in by 15,so your bet is,nt looking good when you think that of the remaining 49 above yours you need 24(might be more,not sure about ruling regarding horses on same weight,6 in your case) to drop out,you never know but coupled with the other stats i referred to to,i would personally lay it off. Well steve,Cornish rebel is in at 40th position at the moment, barring injury, mckelvey 10st 11 lb,sir rembrandt 10st 10lb,no full 10st 9lb(same weight as cornish rebel),point barrow 10st 10lb,bewleys berry 10st 11lb,nadover 10st 6lb(above character building),cloudy lane 10st 8lb,butlers cabin 11st,mr pointment 11st 8lb,royal auclair 10st 7lb,lami 10st 12lb,simon 11st 4lb,d;argent 10st 9lbs,philson run 10st 5lb and beef or salmon 11st 12lb(a runner as of now,states trainer.quoted on the sporting life site)are definate runners,so that reduces your chances of character building getting in by 15,so your bet is,nt looking good when you think that of the remaining 49 above yours you need 24(might be more,not sure about ruling regarding horses on same weight,6 in your case) to drop out,you never know but coupled with the other stats i referred to to,i would personally lay it off.

]]> By: Steve http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-35 Steve Wed, 06 Feb 2008 16:33:10 +0000 http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2008/grand-national-weights-announced/#comment-35 Yes Trevor - completely agree. So why on earth have I got an ante post bet on Character Building - I cant recall why I put that on... it hasnt even won a decent chase. Better go and lay off quick! What is everyones opinion on this..... with 75 runnersallotted weights of 10-4 + is it worth spending any time looking at those below... will 35+ pull out??? Is Beef or Salmon a definate runner - ie very unlikely to be weight increases this year? Yes Trevor - completely agree. So why on earth have I got an ante post bet on Character Building - I cant recall why I put that on… it hasnt even won a decent chase. Better go and lay off quick!

What is everyones opinion on this….. with 75 runnersallotted weights of 10-4 + is it worth spending any time looking at those below… will 35+ pull out??? Is Beef or Salmon a definate runner - ie very unlikely to be weight increases this year?

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