Grand National Odds: Who will be the surprise outsider?

Punters the length of the country will be scanning the Grand National Odds for the likely winner and they will be using a wide range methods to come up with their selection.

This blog has hopefully helped to bring together some informed opinion for the form students but it could also, hopefully, be the first port of call for a novice or fun punter looking for that first horseracing adrenalin rush that the Grand National is famous for.

Each-way thieves?

Many will like the look of an each-way bet on an outsider. But which one?

Since 2000 (apart from on one occasion) at least one horse has won or been placed at odds of 33/1 or bigger. In light of this, perhaps it would be a good idea if some of the regulars from the blog could give an idea of an outsider (33/1 or bigger please) likely to offer a good run at big price odds.

I’ll get the ball rolling with a couple at larger odds that I like the look of and hopefully we can get a shortlist of outsiders that value seekers and first time punters alike can refer to.

BACKBEAT

I remember being impressed by this horse when he finished second in a handicap at Huntingdon in October 2005, giving weight to subsequent Scottish National winner Run For Paddy. His jumping and tenacity really impressed me that day and although, as with any flamboyant jumper, there can be a risk of mistakes, when he gets it right he really is a joy to watch. A series of injuries meant it was two and half years before Backbeat was able to show his true form again when putting in another great display to see off course specialist Erics Charm at Sandown in January of this year.
I know it would be easy to pick holes in his form but at a big price he has stamina in his pedigree (out of a Deep Run mare), wins on good and good to soft ground and is an exuberant jumper who likes to be up with the pace – I think punters could get an exciting run for their money with Backbeat. He is currently available at 50/1 with Blue Square.

JOAACI

I’m a bit surprised that this horse has seemingly been overlooked but that could be due to the connections having the more obviously fanciable Comply Or Die and Over The Creek in the National but if this horse is left in I think he could surprise a few people.

He had a meteroric rise up the weights as a five year old after arriving at the Pipe yard fresh from winning a point to point in Ireland. He then rocketed up the ratings from 112 to 152 in less than a year and has spent the last couple of seasons paying for his successes.
However, he has winning form from 2006 and placed form on two separate occasions in 2007 off a mark of 143 and he is asked to race from that mark here in the National. Martin Pipe was quoted in 2006 as saying that ‘he might make a National horse one day, he is still only a baby’.
Undoubtedly, he hasn’t lived up to his initial hype and his stamina is in question as is his attitude when faced with a test such as this but given he has form at this mark (albeit at a much lower level) he looks worth including in my outsiders portfolio at 66/1 with with William Hill.

More obvious ‘outsiders’ such as Kelami, DArgent and Naunton Brook have been mentioned positively on other threads – give us the reasoning behind why we should be investing on them instead.

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30 Responses to Grand National Odds: Who will be the surprise outsider?

  1. Dan says:

    I agree with both of those horses. In fact doesnt Joacci nearly fit all the trends. The only blemish is that it has not won a chase worth £17,oo but did win one worth £16,900!! So surely you can count that?

    I like Cornish Rebels stats. Ran in some great races and placed in Hennesey, Scottish National and Welsh National. Massive price. Can you imagine if this horse won, Paul Nicholls would be sick as he sold Silver Birch last year and this one is also with another trainer.

    A lot of rain here in Liverpool today!!

  2. Russell says:

    ROYAL AUCLAIR at 66/1
    Is racing 13 lbs lighter than when finishing runner up to Hedgehunter in 2005 and despite slipping down the ratings since then, this weight actually gives him a chance to be in contention.
    Plenty of experience, only negative for me is that he has fallen or unseated at last 3 attempts around aintree. However the big price is enough of a tempter!

    OVER THE CREEK at 40/1
    I really like the look of this one if Pipe lets him run. Obviously might be overshadowed by Comply or Die but is a good chase in his own right. Carried plenty of weight at the festival which gave the impression that he had nothing left in the tank at the end. Off a fair mark, this one will give you a run for your money i think.

    Cornish Rebel is getting on a bit isn’t he? i remember his form from a years back but then not delivering on National day. Backbeat and Joacci are two names i keep looking at….very interesting (this year’s race is so hard to unravel)

  3. texas pete says:

    I’d agree with you Russell on both these horses and although OVER THE CREEK was tiring at Cheltenham he was carrying a massive weight,i think he could definately be in the shake up,i think he’s also won at Aintree although that may have been over hurdles.

  4. SILVER BIRCH says:

    Im right with you Russell on your two horses ….although not an exciting mysterious dark horse who is dangerously well handicapped. royal auclair , if he stays on his feet, deserves massive respect . yes . he is not the force of old but is still capable of getting in the mix at a ridiculous price . paul nicholls definitely plans to run him and 89/1 still available on betfair . thats a gross insult to a very capable horse who lumped 11-10 into 2nd place behind hedgehunter not so long ago

    over the creek has to be the big dark horse . the 64,000 dollar question is will david pipe run him. .. this horse travels so well in his races and cruised round cheltenham before being outspeeded on the run in … i though he ran a far better race than the critics suggested at chepstow .. jumping well and staying on behind a very well handicapped miko de beachene . he warrants serious respect if he turns up .. he reminds me of bindaree a lot . he is currently 74s on betfair which is probably due to the question marks over his participation …id love to see him take part

  5. Russell says:

    cheers guys (always nice to hear people actually agreeing with a “tip” rather than rubbishing it!)

    I must admit that Royal Auclair’s last 3 attempts at the course don’t fill me with confidence that he will get round BUT he has before and the lower weight will help, if he does get round i imagine him to be in the mix with about 6 or so others with 2 left to jump!

    The more i look into OVER THE CREEK the more i think he has a good each way shout, very much like Bindaree. I don’t think Pipe will run him though, would be a terrible shame but the way he travelled at the festival carrying that big weight impressed me hugely.
    I think one thing i can say with some confidence is that there will be some big prices in the places and / or winner’s enclosure this year. There is at least one (i think probably 2) horse whose odds will be over 33/1 which places, so its just a question of finding it

  6. Brody says:

    Agree with the admin on Joaaci, he got down to my short list of 10 but didn’t quite make the top 5.

    Also agree that Royal Auclair is a decent shout at the odds very consistent honest horse, stayed on very well in the veterans race at Newbury passing several on the run in suggesting he still easily gets a 4mile trip. Obviously the big question is can he still jump the national fences!

    Personally I’d like to throw Black Apalchi into the ring. I think he’s a great shout for the once a year punter looking for a big E/W price. Loves to run prominently at the front of the pack so should give a good run for your money and hopefully avoid trouble too. Never fallen in his chasing career to date so jumping is sound. Perfect 6 prep runs with some decent scalps on the way. If he gets in will be receiving lumps of weight at only 10’7.

    Negatives are he needs a few to drop out at the moment, should make it though, also a lack of a truly top class recent win, but thats not disimilar to Slim Pickings from last year.

    Prepared to forgive a disappointing last ran as he never seemed to be put into the race and had easy ride from the jockey.

  7. Speedyseagull says:

    I agree with OVER THE CREEK e/w although, like many others, I have a feeling he won’t run which would be s shame. He is 74s on Betfair, but he was over 100s a couple of weeks ago.

    I’d considered the ageing Cornish Rebel, but wasn’t impressed with the run at Cheltenham. I always back Royal Auclair but starting to lose faith as keeps falling.

    TURKO could be a good 33/1 e/w bet if Nicholls decides to run it. Probably too much weight to win but is a classy horse and has been running on at the end of its 3m races.

    Does anyone have any thoughts on AlWAYS WAINING? I have no basis for suggesting this horse (certainly not on stats) but the name keeps jumping out at me for some bizarre reason!

  8. National Steve says:

    As an outsider id like to throw in Mon Mome,GN has been his only target all season,kept fresh for a spring campaign only,ran eyecatchingly but just off the radar last time at Chelts,finishing strongly up the Chelts Hill suggesting hes just coming to hand at the right time.Ive fancied this horse for the GN ever since its second in the Welsh GN 2006 behind Halcon Generlardais,the only little nags i have against him are that he is not that big, and that he is French Bred,but if it turns up soft and he jumps round he has a good an E/W shout as any at big prices.LOL Steve.

  9. Speedyseagull says:

    Right, I’ve had a further look at ALWAYS WAINING. The big negatives to start with: It is only 7, it hasn’t run since 1st Jan, and last three finishes have been 7th, 8th, 7th.

    Let’s look at that last run – ran an awful race and was thrashed behind Irish Raptor. Can’t ignore it, but think it was about the time that Bowen’s stable was having a shocker so may explain part of it.

    The race before that was the Hennesy, finishing 29 lengths behind the mighty Denman at 20/1. Four other National horses finished that day, including Point Barrow and D’Argent which finished 8 and 9 lengths behind Always Waining. AW now actually has an 8 and 9 pound pull on these two horses which are quite fancied for the national. AW was staying on well when blundered.

    The horse has won twice on good ground, once on g/s ground and was disqualified (drugs test!) when winning on g/f ground. In 3 of his 6 races over 3m+ he has been staying on strongly at the finish.

    It is trading at 500 on Betfair, and high place odds also. It may end up not running, falling at the first, or pulling up, but at those prices I’m having a couple of quid win and £5 place. Not my main bet by any stretch but keeps things interesting and always good to have a sneaky 100/1+ in your portfolio so you look like a legend to your mates if it gets placed!

  10. Systems Man says:

    Speedyseagull “ALWAYS WAINING – I’m having a couple of quid win and £5 place”
    Well that £5 lost then.
    A 7 year old to win or place while at 500/1 (Betfair) – now that is wishful thinking.

    You can still get 66/1 at Ladbrooks on Nauton Brook for an each way bet to sneak a place or D’argent at 33/1 or better to win or place as an EW bet. Both have very good trends.

  11. Speedyseagull says:

    I can cope with losing £5. I’m already on D’Argent (mainly place money as don’t think it will win), but don’t fancy Naunton Brook at all.

  12. Brian says:

    Baily Breeze is my outside tip

  13. admin says:

    Thanks for all your suggestions here – keep ‘em coming!
    Don’t want to have too many big price irons in the fire but I like Brian’s suggestion Baily Breeze as well. Loads of stamina in the pedigree, stable coming out of the doldrums (which could explain some of the recent poor runs) sits in a very good niche re recent winners etc and coming in for support on the exchanges? What does anyone else think of Baily Breeze?

  14. Dan says:

    I backed Baily Breeze at 380 on Betfair and 55 for a place. Looks a great each way bet

  15. Speedyseagull says:

    I’ve just been on another Grand National site, and looking at summaries for each runner. They’ve done their write up on Joacci but then at the bottom, in bold, have subsequently added

    JOACI WILL NOT BE RUNNING

    Do we know where this info came from? You may well be already aware of it and I may have missed it

  16. Russell says:

    right well thats one fo the more “interesting” outsiders out of the picture, down to only about 10 now?!

    Can i just say that i think Naunton Brook is a complete waste of a bet. Yes, he will front lead which keeps him out of trouble to a certain extent but he simply fades away in all his races over 3m+, there is no way he can keep the pace up on the 2nd circuit. For evidence just look at his record, including the 3m 5 chase at warwick which D’Argent won (he lead most of the way before finishing behind D’Argent and Philson Run). He is not receiving a weight pull from either of these 2 so is certainly one to discard.

  17. Speedyseagull says:

    Agreed about Naunton Brook. Ran a shocker in last race; even the moody L’Aventure beat it home. Has run in 25 chases and never managed better than a few wins in class 3 company.

  18. Brody says:

    Think some are being slightly harsh on Naunton Brook whilst tipping up Over the Creek, considering Naunton was a length back on him in the Welsh National!

    Having said that I wouldn’t back him now that connections have messed about running him in the Midlands national so soon before Aintree. Can’t see any serious GN contenders bothering with that race.

  19. Russell says:

    i apologise if i come across slightly harsh on naunton brook, as you say he finished very close up behind OTC in welsh national.
    My views are more to do with the fact that like you say, NB has been run in the Midlands National and doesnt appear to have been aimed for this race, nor has his recent form been anything positive at all.
    Over the Creek stays the distance better than NB in my opinion, so a one length victory over 3 1/2 miles would be a lot more over 4 1/2 m

    Having said all that, i actually havent’ backed OTC as Pipe doesnt appear to be letting him run and also, the handicap is so compressed, i don’t see how he can give weight away to horses like Comply or Die, Cloudy Lane etc!

  20. QuatreBras says:

    If Cornish Rebel wins I’ll give up backing horses for the rest of my life. Admittedly he does have some decent form, but he is not the best of jumpers, and although the fences are not what they were they still take one hell of a good jump. Likely to make mistakes and be pulled up, as was the case in 2006!
    I agree with what has been said about Over The Creek. His run in the Welsh National is a superb piece of form and he certainly didn’t fail at Chepstow through a lack of stamina. I suspect though that he won’t run. If this had been a serious target he would not have run at Cheltenham. I think we will see him in next years National. However, if he did run, current odds are massive.
    Two others I like the look of are Mon Mome and Dun Doire, assuming that we get soft ground.
    Mon Mome has had a light campaign and has not actually run that well. However, he was well backed at Cheltenham, and after looking like pulling up at one stage, stayed on quite strongly towards the finish. I think that run might have him spot on and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran really well.
    Dun Doire has also had a light campaign but this horse did run well on its last outing. The key to him is definitely the ground, the more rain the better. It would be great to see him sluice through the field in a manner similar to that when winning at Cheltenham a couple of years back.

  21. wacky says:

    D’ARGENT at 40/1 is far to big a price,but i don’t care it just means i will win more!! Im praying the rain keeps coming down!!

  22. Russell says:

    D’Argent certainly could get a minor place if it rains i think. Fits trends but not really classy enough to win the race in my opinion (The Lane vs Comply!)

    Probably value = around 33/1 so a little bit of value to nibble at 40s

  23. ANDY says:

    hi all i tried this system 15 years ago and have picked the winner every year since prices will tumble once the final 40 are announced so i have backed these 9 horses all to win POINT BARROW 5 PTS @20/1 ,L’AMI 4PTS @25/1,DUN DOIRE 3PTS @33/1,KELAMI 2.5PTS @40/1 D’ARGENT 2.5PTS @40/1 JOES EDGE 2.5PTS @40/1 ROYAL AUCLAIR 2PTS @50/1 ARDAGHEY 2PTS @66/1 NAUNTON BROOK 2PTS @66/1 WITH ODDS OF AT LEAST 3/1 IF ANY OF THESE WIN GOOD LUCK

  24. Amber says:

    Andy is def correct with a couple of his choices-Dun Doire and Ardaghey-perfect choices for an each way now before prices shorten. Both fit criteria for winners-first, and most importantly-Irish!, second- perfect weight, third-perfect age and last, but not least, my phsycic friend tells me so! Go on, have a punt-you’ll thank me later, honest!

  25. Roselier says:

    I love researching NH pedigrees and in particular those of Grand National entries. Not many people may know but Hallo Dandy and Rhyme N Reason were very closely related to one another and indeed Royal Athlete came from the same family as West Tip. So who in this year’s race have some decent connections through their blood?

    Cornish Sett is related to previously mentioned winners Rhyme N Reason and Hallo Dandy and is bidding to become the third member of the family to win the race within a quarter of a century.

    Madison Du Berlais is related to the decent French stallion Saint Preuil who has sired the likes of My Will and dual placed Irish National horse Marcus Du Berlais.

    Bewley’s Berry is extremely well related. His family include 1978 Hennessy winner Approaching, 1996 Irish National winner Feathered Gale, 1997 Whitbread winner Harwell Lad, he had two other relatives with him in last year’s race in Gallant Appraoch and Graphic Approach and he is also related to the Nicky Richard’s trained Great Approach. The list does go on, it’s a truly amazing equine family.

    Snowy Morning is interesting. I had written him off completely as a non-stayer but his grand dam Tamed was the dam of the good, if a little quirky, marathon chaser Him Of Praise. I will still be against SM but it would not surprise if he did see out the trip.

    L’ami is a full brother to Kelami, they are in turn related to Innox and indeed Nitrat and ALL four received a National entry this year. None of them however have ever looked like staying four miles+.

    Fundamentalist has a very special relative in the form of Badsworth Boy the Queen Mother hat-trick hero between 1983-85. The family does seem best short of three miles.

    Knight Legend is related to the very decent Jenny Pitman trained The Illywhacker who was best over 2m 4f and never seemed to get home over three. He did of course finish third in the 1992 King George behind The Fellow.

    Simon’s relatives have been well documented but to reiterate they do include the wonderful Kingsmark and Gaye Brief and also decent stayer (albeit in lesser graded affairs) and full brother to Kingsmark, Galen and Irish National runner up Oulart.

    D’argent is from the same family as the Paul Nicholls trained Geeveem both rather similar in as much as they are stout stayers without being spectacular. He is also distantly related to Alvino, Cardinal Red, Ringaroses and Frosty Canyon. Also in his family is 1996 4 mile NH Chase winning mare Loving Around.

    McKelvey as some will know already is a half brother to Chives who promised so much. He’s also related to some moderate sorts such as the winning Roselier mare Common Girl and Eskimo Pie and that old Owen Brennan stalwart Speaker Weatherill.

    Black Apalachi is related to some solid rather than spectacular types such as Delgany Royal. However, digging right through his pedigree he is also related to that wonderful but quirky mare Hati Roy. His blood can also be traced to the now deceased Mac Three who never fulfilled the promise he showed as a hurdler for Noel Meade.

    Baily Breeze is very interesting (I know that is a matter of opinion) but based on his jumping Baily Breeze would be one of the first you would discount but on pedigree he is a very lively outsider. He is closely related to the dual Whitbread winner Topsham Bay who was also victorious in the 4 mile NH Chase.

    Point Barrow is related to 4 mile Punchestown winner Dublin Hunter and the wonderfully named Irish National runner up Amble Speedy.

    Over The Creek is related to Ross River but deep in his pedigree he is related to 1979 National hero Rubstic and the talented Kildimo who got to see Dessie’s backside more often than connections would have liked. He did win the Beecher though.

    Outsiders to be placed would have to be Baily Breeze and Black Apalachi. D’argent will win though.

  26. Johnny M says:

    Can’t understand why Backbeat is 80/1 with SportingBet and 170 on Betfair.

    Trainer is in good form.
    Won over three miles and bred to stay further.
    Won this year
    Good jumper who has won on left and right-handed tracks.
    Ground at Aintree is going to be suitable at Good or Good to Soft.

    Also he is definitely going to get in.

    Also fits many of the trends for a winner.

    Anybody know who is riding him.

  27. admin says:

    Thanks Roselier – That is a great bit of insight into the breeding of some of the runners. This is an area I’m very interested in myself but very much a novice about how to find out any more info as I find the info on the Racing Post site a little bit frustrating. If you have any basic suggestions for me (and any other would be National enthusiasts on this blog!) on where to look for breeding info, please leave another post.

    I’m chuffed to see the good word for Baily Breeze as I’ve had a few of the admin pennies on each way!

  28. Roselier says:

    Hello admin.

    I have connections at Weatherby’s so I don’t have to pay!!! Have you tried pedigreequery.com? That coupled with the RP site helped kick start things for me until I found my better source. You’ll need a good memory too! It was actually Roselier that first made me sit up and take note of the pedigrees and I can say with some certainty that backing his progeny in marathon chases has given me a healthy profit but now that his youngest progeny are now nine (he died in 1998)they won’t be on our racetracks much longer although of course he will live on through the broodmares he has produced. I fully expect Kayf Tara to become the premier stallion for staying chasers in the future and fill the void left by Roselier but I am praying that d’Argent becomes Roselier’s third Aintree winner. What you must also bear in mind with d’Argent is his damsire, the truly great Monksfield. Monksfield was also the damsire of 2003 winner Monty’s Pass and Midlands National heroine Miss Orchestra (she is now a broodmare and has produced RSA Chase 3rd Battlecry). Monksfield was himself by the stallion Gala Performance who produced dual runner up Greasepaint and 1986 winner West Tip. If blood won Nationals d’Argent would hack up and 40/1 is a ludicrous price.

  29. rocky says:

    Right your all gonna think im mad-i work with someone who owns a horse that won at cheltenham he tipped me comply or die and i have ahd a lumpy bet on it at 25/1-doesnt fit many trends tho so im not so sure-for an outside im going for FUNDAMENTALIST reason being its trained by Twinston Davis and is a class horse-once won the sun alliance hurdle and beat Inglis Drever-Paddy Brennan (class jockey) has picked him today over TD’S other 3 horses even tho one is lowver in the betting-Twinston Davies has had 2 winners recently in the race and was in cracking form at Cheltenham-GET ON AT 66/1 it wont last!!

  30. kj says:

    Roselier you rock!