Comments on: Grand National 2008: The Result and Analysis

By: kj

kj — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 15:38:29 +0000

Sure thing Wacky
I think you are a bit confused and that seems to be the downside of talking on a blog perhaps,
I didn’t say slim pickings could win
I didn’t back any of the placed horses
only got the winner this year but thats the main thing as I know you will agree
Comply was the first horse I backed then D’Argent your main hope too who I had a soft spot for really, I now agree with others who said he couldn’t win.
I do like getting some of the places too
but the winner profile stats don’t apply to these really
to say that the other 38 could get a place is just silly
there is a skill to finding these too!
I think it has helped me keep my great record in this race
even if I ended up backing 6 the last few runnings and already
had the winner with my first bet

By: wacky

wacky — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:16:19 +0000

Well if laying SLIM PICKINGS not to win makes me wrong and a BIG HEAD so be it!!At the end of the day only 2 horses could win the race but the other 38 could be placed so well done for finding those placed horse.I didn’t enter this blog to get a slap on the back and a knighthood,i entered to try and put my own individual thoughts into finding the winner on the day.

By: kj

kj — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 16:49:13 +0000

sorry to see how you take things to heart,
especially considering all the strong comments you have posted.
I have enjoyed much of your analysis and passion for this race, which I share
and when admin thought you were going to far I stood up for you!
don’t be nasty, withdrawing yourself from this great blog
which is the best place for us ALL to exchange our ideas
I was just getting upset with how you are just on this “analysis” page going on about yourself a bit,instead of analysing the race!?!
its not modest thats for sure and it can be offensive to others like me
who have won this race many, many times using our own skill!
I backed Comply or Die and D’Argent after Complys convincing race on 23Feb
just hours before I found this site, so you see this blog had nothing to do with
me finding the winner.(or the 7 out of 8 previously)
I like you, did enjoy the feeling of influence in trying
to get D’Argent to take his chance and it was great to see this happen,
although I feel I was only one of many trying to see him have a go
I know he was your main hope for a long time too.
I understand that you were just looking for the winner but you did say you
“knew that Snowy Morning,McKelvey and Slim Pickings wouldn’t be in the winning enclosure” and the winning enclosure is for placed horses too and you did get this totally wrong. Strong words can be wrong, but still hold influence.
Think someone else should head the challengers page ey!
I respect your ability to find the winner for sure but
you have to respect others ability to do the same.
Where are your analysis comments for the race,
I’ve been looking forward to all the regulars contributing
I imagine statistically speaking they have little bearing on next year
and thats why theres nothing here…

By: Grand National King

Grand National King — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 10:05:20 +0000

Interesting - I liked Royal County Star and Himilayian Trail as well so its annoying that they are not running. I notice Old Benny is now 7/1.

Just a quick question, I notice a lot of grand national runners have antered for this race. Is it too much to ask a horse to run 4M twice in the space of 3 weeks? Any stats on this?

Think I will resist placing any bets until the racecard is confirmed though.

By: wacky

wacky — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 21:23:48 +0000

KJ if you were to read any of my comments you would of seen that i said certain horses couldn’t win,but anything can be placed from horses with over 11st or french bred.On the subject of COD i was trying to be constuctive when i asked what it beat in the EIDER.I didn’t say it couldn’t win unlike some who said a horse wearing BLINKERS wouldn’t win.I will do you a favour in 2009 and keep the winner to myself!!!!Or not according to SOME!!!!!

By: kj

kj — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 20:44:21 +0000

Anyway, keepin it real
hope all great blog contributers keep up the good work and don’t get carried away
here is my contribution

glad ole hedgehunter is off to enjoy retirement,
certainly a horse who coulda won back t back nationals
if only they hadn’t run him to get 2nd in the Gold Cup.
Backed him when he won GN and had a slightly sentimental punt last week, I say slightly
like Ruby I think, he could have got a place even with top weight

and his is the hard luck story of the national…
apparently he got a knock on the first circuit, but what was obvious in the closing stages
was both Hedgehunter and KJC making headway, and D’Argent running out of steam at that speed
fell into hedgehunter knocking the stuffing out of him and Ruby almost off,
think he could have got 4th for sure, shame.

KJC had amazing luck dodging all the horses falling infront of him, he loved it
can’t belive I didn’t back him, as possibly be the only time a horse with my initials will run!
my Dad had it and I already had a grey horse,
like Comply or Die I think this horse could do well again/win but not with too much weight.

D’Argent went jumped well, had run his race when falling, just couldn’t go the pace and at 11
not going to do better.

Bewleys Berry stayed longer than I expected almost worried me, but will never get the trip.

Simon also didn’t get home and should probably try these fences at a shorter trip.

Tony McCoy also a bad bet hasn’t the care and patience required and rarely seems to get home.

By: kj

kj — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 19:10:48 +0000

Thought I had found the real analysis page here, having been disappointed with
the “narrow down the field” blog post race, but only more disappointed to find
systems man and wacky sucking up to each other claiming the whole world was
on there tips because of them! not the case. Alot of us I am afraid have there own minds.
Help yes, stats analysis solid work,well done. insightful yes, but gods we must listen to…
I think all that praise from people looking for tips has really gone to your heads, sorry systems man but wacky has a massive head and if he reads his postings, he will see how he doubted Comply or Die,
how others had pinpointed the horse and may I also say, none of you mentioned KJC or rated Snowy
well done Russell (see narrow down blog march 26 I think) stick to your guns.
If anything I think systems and wacky put me off finding those bonus places aswell
and I have had three out of for places a few times before so you see there are negatives.

Like I said wheres the expert post GN race analysis here!!!
I will post my helpful pointers soon…really

By: COMPLY OR DIE

COMPLY OR DIE — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 20:05:56 +0000

I also decided to ignore the wearing blinkers
trend,also how many eider winners have run in the national in the same season carrying over a stone less ?

Anyway I am looking forward to nextyear,I may
just have sobered up by then.

By: Grand National King

Grand National King — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 15:52:00 +0000

I predicted Comply or Die to win on here but like most people on here was way off with the rest. Only got him at 10/1 though.

Last year I had Silver Birch, Mckelvey and Slim Pickings and made a killing.

For me personally, I felt that I made a key mistake this year - and IGNORED the most important Stat of them all - FORM.

For example - Kings Johns Castle did not come up on the shortlist but had an impressive recent record coming 1st or 2nd in most of his runs.

Looking back - I think backing the likes of Point Barrow and McKelvey was always a non-starter as they showed absolutely nothing in their prep races.

Have learnt alot from this year though and am looking forward to next year!

By: Systems Man

Systems Man — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 19:40:39 +0000

Wacky you were spot on and very helpful in my own work. Ignore the wingers, there is always a few who dont listen. Its how you use the trends that is all important and how to be a litle flexable, if needed for the odd modification that can occur in trends (i.e blinkers is no bar to winning the GN). On this your gave a master class.
Have a look at the Scottish National next week Wacky and let me know what you think - I have a cracking good selection if it runs which i think you will also find using the trends. Problem this week is that many will drop out.