Grand National 2008: The Result and Analysis
April 5th, 2008Grand National 2008: The Result
1st – Comply Or Die 7/1JF
2nd – King Johns Castle 20/1
3rd – Snowy Morning 16/1
4th – Slim Pickings 10/1
Well done to all those who picked the winner (and placed horses).
Loads of tips for the winner throughout this blog – good luck to you all!
COMPLY OR DIE
Any concerns about the closeness of his win in the Eider Chase were dismissed in no uncertain term and the trends followers are in heaven as David Pipe’s chaser ticked nearly all the boxes required of a potential winner.
In the race itself he travelled and jumped well and when faced with a battle after the last his superior stamina proved decisive.
A textbook performance and every chance he can come back and defend his title.
KING JOHNS CASTLE
Plenty of doubts about his stamina were seemingly unfounded as he has run a cracker in only finding the Pipe horse too good. Held up way off the pace in Carberry style, he worked his way into the race and looked to be going as well as the winner going into the final stages of the race.
Possibility he could come back next year with more experience of longer distances and be an even bigger threat.
SNOWY MORNING
Looked to be going as well as any turning for home and jumping concerns were unfounded as this young horse performed with great credit. Due to go up in the weights and it may just be that this was his beat chance of success.
SLIM PICKINGS
Great waiting ride from Barry Geraghty trying to eek out every ounce of stamina from Slim Pickings but unfortunately it wasn’t quite enough for the second year running.
Hard Luck Stories and Disappointments
Tony McCoy won’t want a picture of Bechers Brook on his wall when he retires as he endured yet another fall at the famous old fence when looking to be going well on Butler’s Cabin.
Ante-Post punters that took advantage of the 25/1 and less about Cloudy Lane never really looked likely to collect and it seemed a combination of stamina limitations and a first look at the fences that were the downfall of the McCain horse.
The day of the race plunge on Vodka Bleu was hard to fathom and the winning rider’s rejected choice of ride never looked happy and Murphy must have breathed a sigh of relief that he didn’t follow his heart and go with Vodka Bleu.
We will analyse the race at length later on in the week but give us your initial thoughts here.
superwinger Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
GOOD OLD COMPLY OR DIE THE STATS HAVEN’T LIED FOR ANOTHER YEAR.
WELL DONE EVERYONE
ITS BEEN A GOOD RIDE.
PERHAPS I CAN SLEEP TONIGHT NOW
cianna Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Condolences to the connections of McKelvey. A tragic end for a brave horse.
peter the pig Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Raise a glass to the trends horse, and all connected.
Many on this site had COD and many a family will enjoy the spending money on holiday or the holiday itself from the winnings.
My £10 e.w. @ 14-1 cheered me up no end, and gave me the biggest winner that I’ve ever had - can’t wait for next year.
Thanks to all contributers on the site especially Admin, Wacky and Systems Man.
Stephen Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
GET IN!!!
Timmy did us all proud who had Comply.
I’ve been waiting for this day since February when I managed to get 25/1 about him. Only had £10 e.w. but it was all I could afford at the time. Still, it’s a nice touch to get as he came home the well backed 7/1jf.
I now look forward to next year!
wacky Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
That was was the dogs bollocks.God how i wish this race was run every week.I still find it hard to believe that every year only a few horses fit the stats but they still win.Admin is there any way that systems man and myself maybe, could set up a tipping line? I think we deserve to make some money as my head has been spinning for the last 2 weeks.Going to GOUVES in CRETE for 2 weeks in the summer if you want to meet up for a celebration systems man?
COMPLY OR DIE Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 1:19 am
I my run next year but at the moment I am just enjoying the moment.
Well done all of you who had faith in me.
Dan Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Well done everyone.
Managed to get 95’s on betfair before the eider so I am very happy. Took 12/1 and 10/1 as well.
Lets keep this going.
Until next year….
crisp 73 Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Sorry, wacky I thought your tip was D’Argent?
Systems Man Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Took 25/1 huge bet (mised the 40/1!! on weights day)14/1 and even on the day felt I just had to have that liitle bit more at 8/1. Gave the wife some money today to spend on anything she wants and its only a tiny bit of what we won. I always see this race an an investment (I never gamble only invest an spred the investment from Jan to April so I dont notice it)
Wacky/Admin looking forward to working together again. I will post a review soon which will help in 2009. Hope we can all get the Derby winner but w wont win much - more of a fun race for good pocket money.
Admin can you start a Derby page please?
Brody Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Great race had 3 out of the top 5 so worked out very enjoyable and profitable day for me.
NilDesperandum Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Great race..had a nice bet at 40/1 as he jumped the last in the Eider..very nice (slack) of Ladbrokes not to take the betting down during a national trial
Had some more on the day and had KJC too..it’s just nice picking the winner..the National is something else
Stats Man Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Great result! Keeps my run going in the national - this has got to be one of the easiest races to win money on. This site was really useful though, as it helped to back up my own analysis.
I didn’t win as much as last yr (Silver Birch at 60/1 on betfair) but it’s still a terrific win.
Bob Says:
April 7th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Thanks to everybody great blog.Had 25/1 20/1 14/1 and 12s well pleased,are there any stats for the Scottish National be nice to win that as well keep those bookies on the ropes.Great stuff please keep this site going Admin look forward to reading comments everyday. CHEERS.
madlad2 Says:
April 7th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Can someone tell me which one of the three, L’Ami, Backbeat and black Apalachi was the actual first faller, at the second.
Jimmy Boy Says:
April 7th, 2008 at 11:49 am
What a great race Comply Or Die ran. Congratulations to everyone who won money on it, and roll on Grand National 2009.
I was there in the stands on the home straight (pretty much opposite the elbow coming in) and going absolutely mad as Comply was coming in. The roar of the crowd suggested many had got on it and I thought of Systems Man, wacky et al who were all in agreement that he was a great bet for the race.
Pearl King and Tidal Bay also gave me two more winners on the day, so it was a very profitable venture for me.
Happy spending people, and I look forward to chatting with you all on here next year.
Anyone have any tips on the 1,000 and 2,000 guineas?
I hear Cape Amber (1,000) and Ravens Pass (2,000) have strong claims.
Pav Says:
April 7th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Well done to whoever runs this site! It has definitely added to my enjoyment of this year’s race. It has been great to read all the comments particularly from those who have studied the trends. It’s less than two weeks to the Scottish National so I’m hoping for some help in reinvesting some of my winnings!
wacky Says:
April 7th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Seems to me that a few people on this blog haven’t understood the constuctive criticism that i have tried to put towards trying to help find the winner this year.Maybe at times i was a little cocky but in the end my final verdict on the morning of the race was right and all my family and friends are happy with there winnings.Hope that i’ve helped and sorry if i haven’t.Thereis a saying ” You can please some people some of the time,But you can’t please some people all of the time” Thanks again ADMIN & we(systems man)are still waiting for reply about a tipping line!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Systems Man Says:
April 7th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Wacky you were spot on and very helpful in my own work. Ignore the wingers, there is always a few who dont listen. Its how you use the trends that is all important and how to be a litle flexable, if needed for the odd modification that can occur in trends (i.e blinkers is no bar to winning the GN). On this your gave a master class.
Have a look at the Scottish National next week Wacky and let me know what you think - I have a cracking good selection if it runs which i think you will also find using the trends. Problem this week is that many will drop out.
Grand National King Says:
April 8th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
I predicted Comply or Die to win on here but like most people on here was way off with the rest. Only got him at 10/1 though.
Last year I had Silver Birch, Mckelvey and Slim Pickings and made a killing.
For me personally, I felt that I made a key mistake this year - and IGNORED the most important Stat of them all - FORM.
For example - Kings Johns Castle did not come up on the shortlist but had an impressive recent record coming 1st or 2nd in most of his runs.
Looking back - I think backing the likes of Point Barrow and McKelvey was always a non-starter as they showed absolutely nothing in their prep races.
Have learnt alot from this year though and am looking forward to next year!
COMPLY OR DIE Says:
April 8th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
I also decided to ignore the wearing blinkers
trend,also how many eider winners have run in the national in the same season carrying over a stone less ?
Anyway I am looking forward to nextyear,I may
just have sobered up by then.
kj Says:
April 12th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Thought I had found the real analysis page here, having been disappointed with
the “narrow down the field” blog post race, but only more disappointed to find
systems man and wacky sucking up to each other claiming the whole world was
on there tips because of them! not the case. Alot of us I am afraid have there own minds.
Help yes, stats analysis solid work,well done. insightful yes, but gods we must listen to…
I think all that praise from people looking for tips has really gone to your heads, sorry systems man but wacky has a massive head and if he reads his postings, he will see how he doubted Comply or Die,
how others had pinpointed the horse and may I also say, none of you mentioned KJC or rated Snowy
well done Russell (see narrow down blog march 26 I think) stick to your guns.
If anything I think systems and wacky put me off finding those bonus places aswell
and I have had three out of for places a few times before so you see there are negatives.
Like I said wheres the expert post GN race analysis here!!!
I will post my helpful pointers soon…really
kj Says:
April 12th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Anyway, keepin it real
hope all great blog contributers keep up the good work and don’t get carried away
here is my contribution
glad ole hedgehunter is off to enjoy retirement,
certainly a horse who coulda won back t back nationals
if only they hadn’t run him to get 2nd in the Gold Cup.
Backed him when he won GN and had a slightly sentimental punt last week, I say slightly
like Ruby I think, he could have got a place even with top weight
and his is the hard luck story of the national…
apparently he got a knock on the first circuit, but what was obvious in the closing stages
was both Hedgehunter and KJC making headway, and D’Argent running out of steam at that speed
fell into hedgehunter knocking the stuffing out of him and Ruby almost off,
think he could have got 4th for sure, shame.
KJC had amazing luck dodging all the horses falling infront of him, he loved it
can’t belive I didn’t back him, as possibly be the only time a horse with my initials will run!
my Dad had it and I already had a grey horse,
like Comply or Die I think this horse could do well again/win but not with too much weight.
D’Argent went jumped well, had run his race when falling, just couldn’t go the pace and at 11
not going to do better.
Bewleys Berry stayed longer than I expected almost worried me, but will never get the trip.
Simon also didn’t get home and should probably try these fences at a shorter trip.
Tony McCoy also a bad bet hasn’t the care and patience required and rarely seems to get home.
wacky Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
KJ if you were to read any of my comments you would of seen that i said certain horses couldn’t win,but anything can be placed from horses with over 11st or french bred.On the subject of COD i was trying to be constuctive when i asked what it beat in the EIDER.I didn’t say it couldn’t win unlike some who said a horse wearing BLINKERS wouldn’t win.I will do you a favour in 2009 and keep the winner to myself!!!!Or not according to SOME!!!!!
Grand National King Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Interesting - I liked Royal County Star and Himilayian Trail as well so its annoying that they are not running. I notice Old Benny is now 7/1.
Just a quick question, I notice a lot of grand national runners have antered for this race. Is it too much to ask a horse to run 4M twice in the space of 3 weeks? Any stats on this?
Think I will resist placing any bets until the racecard is confirmed though.
kj Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
sorry to see how you take things to heart,
especially considering all the strong comments you have posted.
I have enjoyed much of your analysis and passion for this race, which I share
and when admin thought you were going to far I stood up for you!
don’t be nasty, withdrawing yourself from this great blog
which is the best place for us ALL to exchange our ideas
I was just getting upset with how you are just on this “analysis” page going on about yourself a bit,instead of analysing the race!?!
its not modest thats for sure and it can be offensive to others like me
who have won this race many, many times using our own skill!
I backed Comply or Die and D’Argent after Complys convincing race on 23Feb
just hours before I found this site, so you see this blog had nothing to do with
me finding the winner.(or the 7 out of 8 previously)
I like you, did enjoy the feeling of influence in trying
to get D’Argent to take his chance and it was great to see this happen,
although I feel I was only one of many trying to see him have a go
I know he was your main hope for a long time too.
I understand that you were just looking for the winner but you did say you
“knew that Snowy Morning,McKelvey and Slim Pickings wouldn’t be in the winning enclosure” and the winning enclosure is for placed horses too and you did get this totally wrong. Strong words can be wrong, but still hold influence.
Think someone else should head the challengers page ey!
I respect your ability to find the winner for sure but
you have to respect others ability to do the same.
Where are your analysis comments for the race,
I’ve been looking forward to all the regulars contributing
I imagine statistically speaking they have little bearing on next year
and thats why theres nothing here…
wacky Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Well if laying SLIM PICKINGS not to win makes me wrong and a BIG HEAD so be it!!At the end of the day only 2 horses could win the race but the other 38 could be placed so well done for finding those placed horse.I didn’t enter this blog to get a slap on the back and a knighthood,i entered to try and put my own individual thoughts into finding the winner on the day.
kj Says:
April 19th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Sure thing Wacky
I think you are a bit confused and that seems to be the downside of talking on a blog perhaps,
I didn’t say slim pickings could win
I didn’t back any of the placed horses
only got the winner this year but thats the main thing as I know you will agree
Comply was the first horse I backed then D’Argent your main hope too who I had a soft spot for really, I now agree with others who said he couldn’t win.
I do like getting some of the places too
but the winner profile stats don’t apply to these really
to say that the other 38 could get a place is just silly
there is a skill to finding these too!
I think it has helped me keep my great record in this race
even if I ended up backing 6 the last few runnings and already
had the winner with my first bet