Cheltenham 2008 and The Grand National: Part One
March 16th, 2008A number of Grand National candidates ran last week at the Cheltenham Festival but did any of them enhance their Aintree chances with good performances?
Ran at the Festival and The National - Cross them off?
Only one Festival winner has gone on to success in the Grand National since 1961 (Seagram 1991) but eight horses who were beaten at the Festival have gone on to be successful at Aintree since 1982 so it makes sense to have a look and see who might have been having a final prep run before their real big race target.
William Hill Trophy.
Traditionally the Cheltenham race where most National horses tune up is the William Hill Trophy and this year was no different with a whole host of National entries taking their chances.
The two that faired best were L’Ami and Patsy Hall, who finished third and fourth respectively.
L’Ami
L’Ami was backed into favouritism for the race presumably due to what now looks an attractive handicap mark. He ran well enough finishing third, getting beat in the end less than three lengths after making a mistake at the second last fence.
He runs off the same mark of 145 in the National but finished a tailed-off tenth of twelve finishers last year to Silver Birch after weakening three fences from home. His jumping started to deteriorate from Bechers second time around on that occasion indicating that his stamina is a major worry even off a mark of 9lb less this year.
However, the bookies were sufficiently impressed to halve his odds from 66/1 (now 33/1 with Betfred ) but you have to wonder how much of that is to do with the possible McManus/McCoy influence. Good horse that he is (or was?) he’s had plenty of racing for a nine year old and looks more likely to be suited by a Becher Chase than the extreme distance of the National.
Patsy Hall
Patsy Hall was the subject of the usual Tony Martin wheelbarrow of cash plunge for the William Hill Trophy and very nearly went off favourite in the end. He, too, ran well and looked the winner for most of the way only to make a mistake at the last, weakening markedly on the flat to finish nearly nine lengths back in fourth behind the winner, An Accordion.
It could be argued the Patsy Hall might have needed this race after an absence stretching back to 1st December and given the fairly dismal display of the Martin runners at the meeting his backers for the National could take some hope from this performance. Detractors might argue that this performance (and his Irish National failure in 2007) makes the horse look like a non-stayer but he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree (Saddlers Hall and a Roselier mare!) so it would suggest he would be very much suited by longer distances.
In contrast to L’Ami, most bookies left Patsy Hall unchanged at 50/1 which is a tad surprising and, especially if a Martin plunge starts, could certainly offer an opportunity to make a profitable trade at those odds.
The Rest!
Other runners in the race who could surely not be supported must be Ollie Magern (7th), Fundamentalist (8th) and Monkerhostin (PU).
The first two named would have trouble staying four miles sitting on a bus and Monkerhostin’s performance in the National last year and shocking effort in this make him a cert no play.
The only other runner who could possibly be considered is Mon Mome who ran a funny race in finishing 6th. Outpaced at the mid-point off the race he stayed on strongly when all too late to finish 22 lengths adrift.
A former Welsh National and Tote Classic runner up he would make some sort of appeal over the longer trip of the National but it is now two years since he last got his head in front and he is still being asked to race in the National at a rating 11lb in advance of that last winning mark. His price remained unchanged after this race and he would not be making my shortlist.
More from the Cheltenham Festival later in the week – let us know who you think enhanced (or not!) their chances for the National at Cheltenham.
