Becher Chase - Can it give us the Grand National Winner?
November 27th, 2007Following his victory in Saturdays becher chase, ran over 3m2f of the Aintree Grand National course and fences, Mr Pointment shot to the head of the 2008 Grand National betting.Is Mr Pointments 16/1 quote from Bluesq to win the Grand National justified? Can the Becher chase lead us to the 2008 Grand National winner? Discuss!!
Why we should back horses which run well in the Becher to Win the Grand National
Fighting the corner for recent Becher winners are Silver Birch, and Amberleigh House who both won the Grand National after winning the Becher. Earth Summit also completed the double, but the other way round and some of us still wonder how 2003 Becher winner Clan Royal didn’t. In fact lets look at the last 10 Becher winners and see how they ran in following Grand Nationals.
2006 Euro Trek - pulled up in the 2007 Grand National
2005 Garvivonnian - pulled up 2006
2004 Silver Birch - Won 2007 at 33/1, Fell 2006
2003 Clan Royal - 2nd 2004 at 10/1 (should have won but jockey dropped his whip and went the wrong way) Carried Out 2005 (would have won if a loose horse hadn’t run him off the course!) 3rd 2006 at 5/1, 11th 2007
2002 Ardent Scout 7th 2004
2001 Amberleigh House Won 2004 at 16/1, 3rd 2003 at 33/1, 10th 2005, PU 2006
2000 Young Kenny - Didn’t subsequently run in Grand national
1999 Feels Like Gold - 14th 2000, 2001 badly hampered and refused
1998 Earth Summit - 8th 1999
1997 Samlee - 3rd 1998 8/1, 10th 1999
So if you had simply backed each Becher chase winner from the last ten years on their future grand national runs you would have made 18 bets and been rewarded with 2 winners and 4 places. A nice profit of £330 to £10 win level stakes. Or for £10 each way bets a healthy £472.50 profit and that’s at starting prices - potentially loads more at ante post prices…
So is Mr Pointment a good bet for the 2008 Grand National? The trends say he is - lets have our £10 each way now . 16/1 is currently available with Bluesq
trevor Says:
January 15th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Before we get to excited about Mr pointments chances in the grand national lets look at a few stats which everyone seems to have over looked,firstly when he won the becher last november he was running off of a bhb mark of 146,which in last years race would have given him a weight of 11 stone,he has been reassessed and is now rated 155,again going by last years weights that would give him 11 st 11lbs,inlude the fact that he has won over the aintree fences,he,s going to get top weight because the likes of kauto star(180),denman(176)and exotic dancer(177)who are the best 3 chasers by a mile will not run in the national.when you also consider that big meetings like aintree and cheltenham aim for a minimum of dead ground(good to soft)it soon becomes clear that mr pointment has about as much chance of winning the national as i have of flying to the moon.you need a horse rated 145 or lower preferably so my advice is to look elsewhere.ps,i,me a bit surprised at nichols the trainer getting so excited,mind you i seem to remember the same scenario last year with eurotrek(rated 154)and that ran like a crab.
Steve Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Trevor - excellant point there… I too have been a bit sucked in by Mr Pointments Becher run and he looks like a great National prospect. But the most important factor is, as you mention, weight. The weights arent announced for another few weeks I dont think. But would be great to get some thoughts on what the likely weights will be for the market leaders at least
trevor Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Steve,we don,t really have to wait for the weights.as i,me about to show you.These are the last six top weights in the national with their bhb marks(now bha),2007 Hedgeunter 158,2006 Hedgehunter 156,2005 Le coudray 155,2004 Le coudray 155,2003 Behrajan 158,2002 Marlborough 158,11 st 12 lbs was carried on each occasion.Looking at the bhb marks of the last six grand national top weights it is basically telling us that really top notch chasers rated 1n the 160,s and 170,s do not run in the national,indeed in those six years there was only a 3lb fluctuation in there ratings,so with hedgehunter(now 156)on the downgrade and probably not even a runner,halcon genelardais(163)not a natural national type(trainer) and unlikely to be allowed to run(owners),its becoming clear going by bhb marks of the six previous topweights that Mr pointment is indeed most likely going to be the topweight in this years grand national,especially as he has now won over the fences(national handicapper normally gives course winners a few extra pounds),unless Mr pointment is the new red rum i think anyone who has backed him might be regretting it after reading this.I would use 155 as your benchmark for topweight to calculate what weight entries might carry.The weights are out in february and there are no penaltys after the publication of the weights.Any trainer with a genuine hope won,t be risking destroying there horses handicap mark at this stage,so it should,nt be to difficult to make accurate calculations with the entries current bhb marks.Hope this helps a bit steve.
Steve Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Hi Trevor - thanks very much - I’ll get my pen and paper out and start trying to form a prediction of the GN weights then.
Could pick up some good ante post prices doing this - as most people wait for the wieghts and then latch onto decent prospects around 10st6-10st10 ish forcing them down in the betting.
Thanks again for you help. I’ll post up my predictions here to see what you think
trevor Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 11:25 pm
The weight range for winners of the national since 1997 is 9st 10lbs to 11st 1lb,with hedgehunter being the only horse since since rhyme’n'reason in 1988 to carry 11st or more,so i,de be a little more flexible with your weight range.I would say just go for 10st 13lb or lower,i think when bobbyjo won he was out of the handicap,so keeping an eye on any progressive unexposed irish entries might be an idea,they have won it a couple of times recently !!!!!!.
Steve Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Thanks Trevor - yes since they handicappers exploit to get more runners in the hcap proper its become a bit harder hasnt it. Thanks for your thoughts on weight - yes agree with what you say 10st13lb or lower as long as the lower ones are decent enough class.
Weights are out on Tuesday I think so will leave predicting weights this year but thanks for the ideas as think that could be a good angle for future years.