Are Cheltenham Cross Country races good preparation for the Grand National?
March 10th, 2008Silver Birch - The start of a trend?
The victory of Silver Birch in last year’s Grand National inevitably makes form students go back through his form for ‘clues’ to see if the 2008 winner might take the same sort of path. It has been suggested in some quarters that Cross Country races could become good prep races for the National but is that really the case?
The race that stands out for many in Silver Birch’s form is his appearance in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham just four weeks before his famous victory at Aintree. Usually runners at the Cheltenham Festival do not fair that well in the National so perhaps it is the unusualness of the Cross Country course which prepared Silver Birch well for his victory?
Previous Cross Country Form
I decided to analyse previous placed runners in all cross country races at Cheltenham and see if their performance at Aintree AFTER being placed in a Cross Country race improved their form sufficiently to make them noteworthy for the National.
The following horses ran in the National AFTER being placed in a Cross Country race at Cheltenham. (No breakdown is made of the time lapse between the races, the listing is merely to see if placing in the first race may or may not have had a positive effect on their form, jumping, attitude etc.)
Cheltenham X Country Placing + Horse G National Fin Pos
12/11/99 3rd Lucky Town 08/04/00 8th (20/1)
10/11/00 1st Supreme Charm 07/04/01 UR (33/1)
10/11/00 1st Supreme Charm 06/04/02 5th (28/1)
12/11/04 1st Spot thedifference 09/04/05 18th (25/1)
13/03/07 2nd Silver Birch 14/04/07 1st (33/1)
13/03/07 3rd Le Duc 14/04/07 UR (66/1)
Cross Country to Aintree - Why so few?
So, the most surprising thing is that from the eighteen Cheltenham Cross Country races prior to the 2007 National on only six occasions had a placed horse from a Cheltenham Cross Country race taken part at Aintree. Also, quite surprising is that, Silver Birch aside, the ones who have taken part have a pretty poor record.
All of the other Cross Country runners to take part in Grand Nationals were fairly well fancied with Supreme Charm doing the best of the others when a distant 5th to Bindaree in 2002.
This may suggest that other factors were at work in Silver Birch’s victory such as his undoubted stamina rather than the change of focus with the Cross Country races.
Unlikely to throw up too many National winners?
The quality of the runners in Cross Country races may improve over the next few seasons and in that case it may be that the National becomes a target for more of its placed horses. But if it continues to be a Enda Bolger benevolent fund then I think its fairly safe to look elsewhere for our National clues.
So tread carefully of the Royal Auclair’s, Wonderkid’s and whatever places in the BGC at Cheltenham this week as the chances of them repeating Silver Birch’s Aintree heroics look pretty slim.
