Please add all your non Grand National related tips and trends etc for May to this page

Thanks

In an attempt to kill off the posting problems we were having in the run up to the 2012 Grand National we have set a new registration and log-in system in place.

We are hopeful that this small amount of extra work for you will mean that the amount of spam we receive is drastically reduced and that should mean that we stop having problems with lost posts.

If for any reason you cannot register please e-mail me direct and we will look into the problem. My e-mail is:

darren@olbg.com

Please make sure you title your mail accordingly so I can get to you asap

Once you have registered please let me know on this thread how you find the new log-in system

Thanks

Paul Nicholls’ gallant grey will not be back to defend his title as he has been retired but a number of the placed horses look likely to return to the fray once more such as Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu along with 2011 winner Ballabriggs.

The early betting for the Grand National 2013 throws up some interesting names such as Tidal Bay, Auroras Encore and Teaforthree.

Let us know your early thoughts.

With all the problems we have had with the blog recently and with the growth in discussion and number of regulars being way more than we originally planned we have decided to start a forum to allow you to interact more easily and also start your own topics

I’ve made an attempt to copy across some of this years main discussion (although new posts are added so fast Im not totally up to date) and have also created usernames for many of you who contributed to that thread.

Please go and take a look. Its early days yet but hopefully we will be able to develop it into something that we can all enjoy.
forum.grand-national-guide.co.uk

HOW TO JOIN
If you have been a regular poster then you may have a username associated with the posts we have copied. If you wish to keep it then heres what to do. Go to the Forgot Password page
Forum Password Setup

Enter the username & email that you usually give us when you post here, and you should receive an email to allow you to setup a password and get involved.

Let me know if you have any questions & good luck!

A good place to start is to look at the basic details of the last ten previous winners:

Scottish National Winners/Age/Weight/SP/Official Rating

2011 Beshabar 9-10-4 15/2 146

2010 Merigo 9-10-0 18/1 127

2009 Hello Bud 11-10-9 12/1 133

2008 Iris De Balme 8-9-7(oh26!) 143?

2007 Hot Weld 8-9-9 14/1 124

2006 Run For Paddy 10-10-2 33/1 135

2005 Joe’s Edge 8-10-0 (5oh) 20/1 132

2004 Grey Abbey 10-11-12 12/1 148

2003 Ryalux 10-10-5 15/2 140

2002 Take Control 8-10-6 20/1 140

Analysis

The victories of Hot Weld and Hello Bud were slight trends breakers in that Hot Weld did not have a top six finish last time out and had a low official rating. Iris De Balme also had an official rating much lower than 143 but ran from that mark so I think we can include him in the figures .Hello Bud was the first winner in the last decade to be over ten years old.

Aged 7-10 (9/10)
Official Rating 132-148 (8/10)
Finished in top 6 on last outing (9/10)

In addition no horse that has run in that seasons Grand National has gone on to win the Scottish National so it would appear we can discount any horse who lines up after a trip round the Grand National fences. We can also discount those horses with a poor jumping record as only 2001 winner Gingembre had a record that included more than two falls or unseats.

Stamina will also be a huge consideration and nine out of the last ten winners had demonstrated winning form over at least 3 miles.

So add in:

No more than two falls or unseats (9/10)
Stamina proven at three miles (9/10)

Hopefully this will help reduce the field down once we know the final declarations

Let us know who you fancy

Please use this page to discuss general racing, including the upcoming meetings at Ayr, Sandown and Punchestown.

I will set up a designated Scottish National thread in the next few minutes

We will open up a thread for the 2013 Grand National within the next fortnight.

I will open a specific Scottish National thread later on today

From the stalwarts who are still here in May or June to all our new friends who have found us for the first time in the last few days we really do appreciate all your fine input that makes our blog the best on the internet for Grand National discussion.

We really are amazed at the number of posts we now get and it is that fact that we believe has been causing the posting problems that we have been experiencing in the last few months. The sheer volume of posts (and the related spam that goes with having so much traffic) has been making it difficult for everyone to post successfully 100% of the time. So, in a move to combat this we will be introducing a different registration system where you will have to register before posting and then be logged in to be able to comment.

Full details will be given nearer the time when we move over to this system but it should be hardly any more time consuming than the system in place at the moment and should solve the spam issues and hopefully the posting problems.

Watch this space for more information.

Well done to all those who managed to show a profit and hard luck to all those who drew a blank.

However, the main commiserations must go to the connections of Synchronised and According To Pete. Two very sad losses.

Finally, please keep checking in to Grand National Guide as we will be discussing the Punchestown Festival and then moving on to, dare I say it, The Flat!

Thanks again for your all contributions and we look forward to 2013!

This leaves the way clear for veteran Hello Bud and Brian Ellison’s Neptune Equester to make the top forty declarations that would run in the race if there are no further withdrawls.

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised remains favourite but there has been some interesting money this morning for reigning Grand National winner Ballabriggs following an upbeat report from trainer Donald McCain.

Also attracting support are Irish raider Becauseicouldntsee and Nicky Henderson’s Shakalakaboomboom.

The following horses were taken out at the six day stage:

Midnight Chase, Burton Port, Quel Esprit, Roberto Goldback, Apt Approach, Psycho, Pearlysteps, Prince de Beauchene, Roulez Cool, The Package and Another Palm.

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised remains the clear favourite for the Grand National and his price looks likely to contract further with rain forecast for the Liverpool area for the next five days.

If the Aintree area receives major rainfall look out for gambles on horses who prefer softer going such as West End Rocker, Giles Cross and Welsh National winner Le Beau Bai.