Please use this page for all your chat and tips regarding horseraces and sporting events as we move into the Autumn.

Please, please, please don’t forget though we are a Grand National blog and do remember to start adding some early thoughts on the Grand National 2011.

ALso, if you have any ideas for pages relating to the Grand National or the upcomiing NH Season (Yippee!!!!) then please let me know and we will see what we can do.

Thanks for you support

Last year’s Kerry National was a very competitive affair with Tony Martin’s Northern Alliance eventually running out a one length winner from subsequent Bet365 Gold Cup winner Church Island.

Michael Hourigan’s Church Island has been well touted on this site as a potential Grand National winner and it will be interesting to see if he starts his 2010/11 campaign at Listowel and is eventually aimed at Aintree.

Trainers to look out for in the Kerry National would be any entries from Jimmy Mangan who trained Monty’s Pass to win this race and the Grand National in 2003. Willie Mullins has had two winners and two horses placed in this race so, as usual, runners from the Mullins yard also need close attention.

However, last year’s race could prove the biggest clue for this year. Last year’s winner Northern Alliance looked set to go on to bigger and better things after taking this race but he didn’t really seem to kick on with his season after that. He showed up well recently on his reappearance over fences in the Galway Plate and a repeat win in the Kerry National would not be out of the question on just a mark of eight pounds higher.

Another horse to take the eye in The Galway Plate was the Eoin Doyle trained The Fonze who had finished seventh in the Kerry National last year. Since then the nine-year-old has won six times over fences, hurdles and most recently on the flat. The Fonze is in great form but admittedly is on a much higher mark than well beat in this last year but his vast recent improvement and eye-catching run at Galway could make him interesting here if he should make the line-up.

Please use this thread for all your thoughts on the upcoming York meeting, the USPGA golf or the premiership football – but don’t forget to keep your focus primarily on the Grand National 2011 – we need any thoughts you may have on the type of horse we should be looking for next year, or updated systems for whittling down the runners or even analysis or individual horses. Don’t forget to keep adding your thoughts to our Grand National 2011 Early Thoughts thread.

Thanks

So, maybe we could use this thread just to throw out some early ideas – Could Maljimar follow in Black Apalachi’s footsteps and get past Bechers next year to figure in the finish? Will Bluesea Cracker stay in training to play a part at Aintree? Could Possol turn 2010′s hurdle form into what is required for the Grand National?

Like a couple of other contributors the horse that caught my eye recently was Oscar Time in the Irish Grand National. I see Bet365 have gone up at 50/1 – I’m almost tempted………….

I’ve adapted the text below from last year’s analysis of the Galway Plate and I’ll try and move some of the relevant posts from the Market Rasen thread over to this one later today (if the software will let me!):

The title here may raise a few eyebrows as the Galway Plate may not be renowned as a race that throws up Grand National runners but Irish Invader, Baily Breeze, Bothar Na and last year’s winner Ballyholland are four horses that have run in both the Galway Plate and the Grand National recently and a couple of other well known horses have had strong associations with the Grand National: 2006 Plate winner Far From Trouble and 2003 Grand National winner Monty’s Pass.
Far From Trouble began to realise his potential when taking the 2006 Galway race and was made favourite for the Grand National on the strength of his win in the Plate and also a couple of eye-catching defeats at the Cheltenham Festival and in the Irish National. Sadly injury intervened and Far From Trouble didn’t make it to Aintree but it does highlight that the Galway Plate can throw up horses that can shake up the betting at Aintree.
Monty Regularly Ran In Plate
2003 Grand National winner Monty’s Pass ran in the Galway Plate from 2000 to 2002 finishing 2nd, 6th and 6th. He is indicative of the type of Irish chaser who tends to run at Galway season after season. The Plate provides a quality field for horses that may prefer good ground, something not seen that often in Ireland! Consequently horses tend to run in the race year after year even if (as with Monty’s Pass) the race itself may not provide the type of stamina test they would require to be ultra competitive. Horses such as the ones highlighted in the list below are the type we are looking for to see if any of the Irish trainers are advertising early intentions with their charges and lining them up for a campaign aimed at Aintree.
What Should Be looking For In A Galway Plate Winner?
Winners of the Galway Plate can be at the other end of the spectrum to horses such as Monty’s Pass with a couple of speedsters such as Ansar and Grimes successful in the last ten years but the majority tend to be proven at 20-22 furlongs over fences and, crucially, their ability to act on the ground shouldn’t be left to trust as all the winners in the last ten years had won on the prevailing ground conditions or on a variety of grounds from good to firm to soft. Previous winning form at Galway should also be not seen as a negative with three of the last ten victors coming into the race as previous course and distance winners. No horse older than nine had won in the last ten years.

These are the previous winners I can find for the last ten years:

Year Horse Weight Trainer OR SP

2002 Chicuelo 6-10-4 MC Pipe 116 15/8F
2003 Ballycassidy 7-10-13 P Bowen 127 11/2J
2004 Glinger 11-10-2 NG Richards 114 20/1
2005 Tango Royal 9-10-8 MC Pipe 133 25/1
2006 Yes Sir 7-10-10 P Bowen 130 3/1F
2007 Iron Man 6-10-13 P Bowen 134 5/1
2008 Snoopy Loopy 10-11-2 P Bowen 139 16/1
2009 Nostringsattached 8-11-5 JJ ONeill 127 7/2F

The most obvious thing straight away is the great record of Peter Bowen. Four winners at 11/2, 3/1, 5/1 and 16/1 from eight years and he didn’t have a runner in 2004!
In all Bowen has had twenty-one runners in this race, four wins and three others placed. Obviously an excellent record and runners from the Welsh stable should be given close inspection especially when you compare his record to three other big yards:

Paul Nicholls: seven runners, two placed

Philip Hobbs: five runners, one placed

Nothing to get too excited about from these top yards but David Pipe and Jonjo Oneill look like the other famous stables to positively target this race.

What To Look For?

The age and experience of the winners varies with winners ages ranging from six to eleven and the number of races over fences also differs somewhat from a low of just five to a high of twenty-three in Tango Royal’s case in 2005.

Horses in poor form could be discounted though as all eight winners either won or placed on their previous completed outing or were having their first start of the season.

Jonjo O’Neills 2009 winner Nostringsattached carried the biggest weight to victory with 11 stone 5lb but six of the eight winners were rated between 127 and 139 so this might be a range to take notice of when the weights are announced.

The race takes place at Market Rasen on Saturday 17th July so we have just over a week to start searching for a winner! Four winners had won on their previous start so has anyone noticed an outstanding winner of a good novice chase or handicap so far in this current season?
Let us know your thoughts.

Please use this thread for the rest of the Newmarket July meeting, the upcoming Glorious Goodwood meeting and any other big flat race you may want to talk about in the near future.

But please don’t forget that this blog is primarily focused on the Grand National and I will be adding a thread on the 2011 Grand National later in the week for your thoughts.

Happy punting!

The majority of bookmakers are already betting on eight of the races taking place between the Tuesday 15th and Saturday 20th June at Ascot so if you have an early fancy for the Royal Hunt Cup or the Wokingham why not let us all know on this page?

My own personal favourite race is the Ascot Gold Cup for which the Henry Cecil trained Manifest is the current 3/1 favourite with Bet365 Jump fans will be keen to see the possible return to Britain of former World Hurdle favourite Kasbah Bliss in this race. The Francois Doumen eight-year-old is a general 7/1 to lift the stayers crown.

Another race to savour is the rematch between 2000 Guineas first and third Makfi and Canford Cliffs in the St James Palace Stakes. Canford Cliffs is 11/8 for this race with Boylesports after his impressive victory in the Irish 2000 Guineas with Makfi 5/2 with 888Sport

Who are you looking forward to seeing? Goldikova? Fame And Glory? Let us know your Royal Ascot fancies.

The Summer National at Uttoxeter is an oasis for jumps fans in a sea of flat racing and, more importantly for us, it is an early indication of some of the horses that might end up in the Grand National, if not this year then certainly at some point in the future.(Not so sure about this anymore now that the distance has been dropped from four miles to three and half miles)

Previous winners in the Grand National

Previous winners of the Summer National Mckelvey, Take The Stand and Jurancon have all been well fancied for the Grand National itself predominantly as they had proved their stamina in this race.

So, let’s look at the previous winners at Uttoxeter:

2000 Berlin Blue OR110 7-10-5 11/2 13 ran 26k – value of race

2002 Stormez OR133 5-11-8 11/2 14 ran 32k

2003 Jurancon OR122 6-10-10 9/1 13 ran 35k

2004 Take The Stand OR138 8-11-12 14/1 16 ran 44k

2005 Rheindross OR117 10-10-3 25/1 16 ran 44k

2006 Mckelvey OR130 7-10-10 11/2 15 ran 45k

2007 Kock De La Vesvre OR123 9-10-9 5/1J 11ran 40k

2008 Surface To Air OR132 7-11-5 10/1 16 ran 34k

2009 Fire And Rain OR 126 6-11-3 7/1 17 ran 34k (First running at three and half miles)

The Summer National in its former guise has thrown up some decent horses with 2002 winner Stormez going on to win two 30k+ handicaps at Cheltenham as well as finishing runner-up in a Whitbread, Scottish National and a NH Chase.
2004 winner Take The Stand went on to finish runner-up in the Gold Cup of 2005 to Kicking King and 2006 winner Mckelvey was cruelly denied by injury and Silver Birch in the 2007 Grand National.

The 2009 version of the Summer National was won by Fire And Rain from Emma Lavelle’s yard and as he only ran once more that year perhaps we can’t look too negatively on what the shift down in distance will do to the quality of runners and Grand National impact. The fact that runner-up in 2009 The King Of Angels was next seen in a Hunter Chase is not that encouraging but this is offset by the third place horse Keenan’s Future running second on his next appearance in the Becher Chase. The jury must still be out on dropping the distance.

Trainers To Follow

I would guess the same trainers are still going to target the race as have done for the last few years and here are a couple to keep in mind:

Peter Bowen

2009 5th
2008 6th, 8th, PU, PU, BD
2007 4th, 5th
2006 1st, UR, PU
2005 4th
2004 1st
2003 F (going well!)

Nick Williams

2009 7th
2008 9th
2007 2nd
2006 3rd

In that time Sue Smith and Jonjo O’Neill have also had a couple of placed runners so keep an eye out if they enter anything interesting.

Let us know your ideas for who might win the Summer National.