The Willie Mullins trained gelding is declared in the runners for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park so I thought this might be a good time to set up a page for him and have a look at his record and prospects in a bit of detail and then open it up to our readers for their thoughts.

Arbor Supreme won a bumper at Leopardstown on his debut in January 2007 and it was after that run that he was purchased by JP McManus. Two subsequent runs over hurdles failed to add to his tally of wins and he returned in the 07/08 season ready to tackle the larger obstacles. His first four runs over fences were at distances up to 2m 5f and it was only when stepped up to 28furlongs and into handicap company for the first time was there the true indications of what Arbor Supreme might become. That race was the Punchestown Grand National trial and the young Mullins horse ran well to finish second to Chelsea Harbour.

Four subsequent runs that season gleaned two victories, including a win at Punchestown over 3m 6f where Black Apalachi, Notre Pere and Niche Market were all well beaten.

The 08/09 season began as the previous one had ended with a victory, this time at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f. At that point, anything seemed possible for the son of Supreme Leader but in five subsequent runs he has failed to finish better than third.

So, from a plus point, he has age on his side, stamina proven at up to 30 furlongs, victories on ground ranging from good to soft/heavy, a top-class trainer, he would probably be set to carry a weight in the low to middle ten stone range if he retains his current handicap mark, he has an owner who is very keen to win the Grand National and possibly the services of AP McCoy in the saddle if he does go to Aintree.

The negatives could be that his two main handicap wins have come at right-handed courses, he has yet to travel outside of Ireland, he possibly could have hit his handicap ceiling at around 140, his trainer seems reluctant (as far as I am aware) to commit him to the Grand National and may prefer the Irish National earlier the same week as Aintree.

How do you view Arbor Supreme’s chances in the Grand National 2010?

Hi everyone and apologies for the delay in new posts recently but I’ve been away on leave and busy working on some other projects. I thought I’d continue the possible runners for Grand National 2010 thread with the very interesting, Black Apalachi.

Three times a runner over the Aintree fences he has failed to complete on two occasions in the 2008 and 2009 Grand Nationals but recorded an emphatic win in the 2008 Becher Chase in between those two failures to negotiate the Aintree fences.

Over enthusiasm was blamed for his fall at the second fence in 2008 but he was going really well when unseating his rider at Bechers when in the lead in 2009. Would he have maintained his position after being in the lead for most of the race or would he have tired in the later stages of the race?
Bookmakers are obviously fearful of the horses chances for 2010 and his Grand National Odds are 25/1 with a number of firms including Stan James

It’s very difficult to be authoritative about how the race would have unfolded if Black Apalachi had stayed on his feet in 2009 but as he will only be aged eleven come the 2010 race and unlikely to be campaigned in a way that will increase his handicap mark he must have a very sound chance of being a strong challenger next April.

What do you think of Black Apalachi’s chances at Aintree? Would he have won in 2009 with a clear round? Can you be positive about the horse for 2010 if he already has two incompletions at Aintree? Give us your thoughts on Black Apalachi on this page.

The first three victories in 2008 were recorded under the care of David Wintle but the horse was transferred to Nigel Twiston-Davies for the 08/09 season and the Gloucestershire trainer managed to squeeze a further four victories from the son of Jurado and wasn’t afraid to travel to do so – recording victories at Kelso, Fontwell, Wincanton and finally that famous win at Ayr.

The victory in the Scottish National was the third win in the race for the yard after the wins in 1992 for Captain Dibble and 1994 for Earth Summit who famously went on to win at Aintree in 1998. The question for readers of our forum is can Hello Bud match his famous stablemate and go on and do the same double? Obviously given Hello Bud’s age (11 rising 12) he doesn’t have four years like Earth Summit to work up to it and if he is going to win the Grand National 2010 would look to be his best chance. He obviously has stamina in abundance and will probably be the first horse to be going into the race for some time with 3 wins at around 4 miles (31f at Hereford, 32f at Hexham and 33f at Ayr)

I did note that the last two of Hello Bud’s wins were achieved with the aid of a tongue tie and whilst that obviously helped any slight concerns the stable had about his breathing I always wonder if problems in that area have a tendency to get worse? It could be that Twiston-Davies managed to farm a rich vein of form from this horse and he may struggle to reproduce that form now that he finds himself so much further up the handicap?

What do our readers think? Is Hello Bud a horse you will be watching closely for the 2010 Grand National or do you think the 08/09 season was the pinnacle of his achievements?

Cynics may argue that conditions suited him the best and that his opponents underperformed but the Welsh National winner is proving very peogressive and could be considered a real live Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate if there was ever really soft ground at the Festival.

But what of the Grand National? Rated 163 BEFORE the Punchestown race he must surely go up to 170 or even higher after that performance and a guarantee of the maximum top weight in the National (if he were to run) and the prospect of giving lumps of weight to decent horses.

I personally can’t see him running in the National due to a combination of the likely weight and that he his highly unlikely to have his ground. Also, I would think connections will find it hard to resist going for the Gold Cup and that would make Aintree even less likely.

Do you agree or do you think that Notre Pere will run and would be up to giving the weight away?

Notre Pere is, at the time of writing, 25/1 with Stan James.

*NB The profiles seem to be getting a fair bit of interest so I will be putting more up over the next few weeks – let me know if there is a particular horse that you have strong views on and you would like to see a thread for.

Prior to the 2009 Grand National Cerium’s best form has been at up to 2m 3f and his efforts at three miles and above gave little indication that he could potentially get close to finishing placed in a Grand National. Does this performance then entitle any horse that qualifies to run whatever their current form?

Cerium’s owners regularly come under fire for running horses with little chance in top class races but is that their right or should there be some additional check in place to make sure that the likes of other horses they have run such as Arteea and Contraband had won over, say, at least as far as 2miles 6 furlongs or even 3 miles?

I think most of our contributors would agree that horses without at least placed form at three miles or above have little chance of winning a Grand National these days so even horses such as Fondmort and Thisthatandtother etc were really just making up the numbers.

As it becomes harder and harder to qualify a Grand National runner should the entry requirements be tightened up so all the competitors have a realistic chance of winning the race?

Let us know what you think about this general issue and if you think Cerium can improve still further and be involved in the finish of the Grand National 2010.

Keith Reveley’s eleven year old won twice in 08/09, including the prestigious Blue Square Gold Cup and it was this race that catapulted him towards the head of the market for the 2009 Grand National.

He looked to be the form horse of the race, with proven stamina and form on a variety of grounds – everything looked set for a very big run. Sadly, this was not to be and a combination of some mistakes and being hampered ended with him being pulled up at the eighteenth fence.

He returned to his yard with a few cuts and bruises but his trainer did not seem to be offering these as excuses and he is quoted on the Racing Post website as that he is “not sure about the National” for this horse in 2010.

Apparently the horse’s jockey, James Reveley, also made some comments to the BBC that the horse hated the experience – can any of our contributors confirm if they heard or read this?

Rambling Minster’s Grand National Odds are currently 40/1, although only a few high street firms are quoting odds for the horse.

Can you see Rambling Minster running in the Grand National 2010? If not, where would you aim the horse and is he still well enough handicapped to win another big race?

John Quinn’s gelding had attracted plenty of ante post interest in both of those years after finishing third in the Hennessy in 07/08 and winning the Kim Muir in 08/09.

Previous year’s readers will know that this is a horse we have discussed before on other threads, the most detailed thread is linked below :
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2009/grand-national-2009-character-building/

I think Character Building’s high profile placing in the ante-post market again for 09/10 means we should open a page for this year so that you can tell us if you’ve had your fingers burnt in the last two years but are still prepared to try again with the horse in 2010?

Is this horse just not a safe option for backing in the Grand National? Or do you believe it will be third time lucky for Character Building and 2010 will be his year?

I’ll start with the Grand National winner and the Irish Grand National winner to see how it goes and add others in if it seems like people are using the pages. I am looking into an earlier suggestion to see if it would be possible to link to the horse previews on GNG – I will get back to you on that.

For now, please add all your Mon Mome views etc to this page. I will come back in the near future and add some general info about the horse – races won etc and a little bit of my view.

Please let me know your general view on this as a idea to take forward.

Thanks