In recent years Aintree horses such as Hear The Echo, Point Barrow, Chelsea Harbour, and Numbersixvalverde have run in this valuable handicap at the Leopardstown Xmas Festival meeting. Also, second in last year’s Leopardstown race was Vic Venturi, winner of the Becher Chase this year and currently 20/1 with Stan James for victory in the 2010 Grand National.

The likes of Gungadu, Siegemaster, Parsons Pistol and Pomme Tiepy are in the declarations at Leopardstown and could also end up vying for a place at Aintree but who might actually win this year’s Paddy Power Chase?

Looking at the seven previous winners of this race I’ve come up with the following as a way of whittling down the field:

OR = 106-142 7/7
Weight = 9-10-11-3 7/7
Age = 6-9 7/7
Previously won over at least 20f over fences 7/7
No more than four runs that season 7/7
Only one or two wins previously over fences (i.e. unexposed) 6/7

This cuts the field down to the following:

Dooneys Gate
Rathmore Castle
Hoopy
Old Si
Orpheus Valley
Oscar Time
Casey Supreme
Lochan Lacha
Leanne
Hume River

Of the above I favour Oscar Time and Dooneys Gate. I am slightly worried that Oscar Time’s best runs seem to be on a right-handed track so my Xmas chocolate coin is going to go on Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old Dooneys Gate who looked to be on the verge of winning a chase at Tramore last April when tipping up at the last and made an eye-catching return to the track when third at Fairyhouse recently when running over an inadequate trip.
A light weight and the potential for improvement look the key to this race and this must be one of the few big handicaps in Ireland that Willie Mullins has still to win. Hopefully that will change on Sunday!

Who do you fancy for the Paddy Power Chase and do you think any of the runners could go on to compete at Aintree in the Grand National 2010?

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/welsh-national-form.php

The 2009 running looks certain to continue in this vein with a whole host of National prospects lined up to run in Wales. Mon Mome is the highest rated horse in the race and if he or 2006 winner Halcon Genelardais take up their place then horses rated 130 or below will be looking at running from out of the handicap. Here are some of the other notable Welsh National entries who could end up also being a Grand National runner:

My Will
Don’t Push It
The Tother One
Gone To Lunch
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Beat The Boys
Flintoff
Hennessy
Irish Raptor
Coe
Old Benny
Merigo
Morgan Be
Beroni
Our Monty
Parsons Pistol
Silver Birch
Southern Vic
Arbor Supreme

If we end up with 33% of these running at Chepstow we are in for a super race with the current English, Irish and Scottish National winners entered as well as two former Welsh National winners in the aforementioned Halcon Genelardais and Miko De Beauchene.

I have had Flintoff in mind for this race for some time and whilst I am a big fan of Venetia Williams I’m quite encouraged that he has made the move to Tim Vaughan’s stable. The way this young trainer seems to improve horses who have been racing elsewhere is becoming very well known and I feel Flintoff would not be far away on some of his old form for Miss Williams so if Vaughan can eek out a few extra pounds of improvement then Flintoff must have a big chance.

I shall be making my first visit to Chepstow for the Welsh National this year and as it’s one of my favourite races of the year I’m really looking forward to it – I’m hoping Flintoff can help pay for some of the expenses!

Flintoff has been opened up a best price of 20/1 with Stan James and could well repay each-way support

Who do you fancy for the Welsh National and do you think any of the potential runners can emulate Mon Mome and go on to Aintree and win the Grand National 2010?

2007 National winner Silver Birch takes his place in the field along with other Aintree favourites such as Parsons Legacy, Can’t Buy Time, Irish Raptor and State Of Play.

Newcomers that catch the eye are Scottish National winner Hello Bud, Howard Johnson’s inexperienced but talented chaser Companero and Irish raider Vic Venturi.

Paul Nicholls has won three of the last five runnings of the Becher Chase and has two entries at this stage – Hoo Loo Baloo and Nozic.

Also, on the card on Sunday is the Grand Sefton Chase which also takes place over the Grand National fences. This race tends to have less of a long term effect on the Grand National itself due to being run over a shorter distance, but there are still some interesting runners entered with Idle Talk, One Cool Cookie and Always Waining gaining entries here and in the Becher and the likes of Brooklyn Brownie, Bible Lord and Private Be also due to line up in the Sefton.

However, the most intriguing entrant is probably the enigmatic Seven Is My Number form the David Pipe yard. The David Johnson owned gelding has looked to have his fair share of temperament in the past but the Pond House team have done well to win three chases with him this year and it will be very interesting to see how he takes to the National fences.

Who do you fancy in the Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton and can the winners of these races go on to further success in the Grand National 2010?

Denman’s presence would undoubtedly have a great effect on the traditional view of this race and what we might look for in the merits of a prospective winner. We could be faced with the prospect of a number of horses running from some way out of the handicap and, personally, I tend to find races like this unsatisfactory as a betting medium. A recent example being the Scottish National won by Iris De Balme at 66/1 from 26lbs out of the handicap.

Nevertheless, as a starting point for discussion here are some basic trends which you may want to expand upon in an attempt for us all to find the winner of the Hennessy:

No winner in the last ten years has been older than eight (nine winners six or seven)

Eight of the last ten winners were second season chasers

Applying all of the above will almost certainly leave a very short list to work from with the likes of What A Friend, Killyglen and Russian Trigger to consider.

The big novice chase at the Aintree Festival has been quite a useful guide to the Hennessy and as that race was won by Killyglen last season he looks to have quite a lot going for him. Howard Johnson’s gelding was beaten on his reappearance recently but big things are expected of his victor that day, Knockara Beau, and as Killyglen was conceding 16lb and racing over just two and half miles we should, perhaps, not be too surprised by the defeat. Killyglen looks the best bet of the second season chasers and hopefully his yard will be in better form by the time of the Newbury meeting.

Taking a wider view, lots of horses appeal but a couple I like are Nenuphar Collonges and Treacle.

Nenuphar Collonges looked like he needed the run (like many Alan King horses this year) recently at Wincanton and at just three pounds higher than his near miss at the Cheltenham Festival he definitely has a big handicap in him if he can keep his jumping together.

Irish challenger Treacle was, I thought, more impressive than the neck winning distance would suggest when winning the Munster National and Tom Taaffe can win another big handicap with this horse but may well decide to stay in Ireland to try and achieve that. Take note if he gets into the race and does make the journey to England. He looks the type of horse that could end up at Aintree in the Grand National itself.

Who do you fancy for the Hennessy and could they possibly go on and win the Grand National 2010?

Check out the latest Grand National Odds here Grand National Odds

Prior to the 2009 Grand National Cerium’s best form has been at up to 2m 3f and his efforts at three miles and above gave little indication that he could potentially get close to finishing placed in a Grand National. Does this performance then entitle any horse that qualifies to run whatever their current form?

Cerium’s owners regularly come under fire for running horses with little chance in top class races but is that their right or should there be some additional check in place to make sure that the likes of other horses they have run such as Arteea and Contraband had won over, say, at least as far as 2miles 6 furlongs or even 3 miles?

I think most of our contributors would agree that horses without at least placed form at three miles or above have little chance of winning a Grand National these days so even horses such as Fondmort and Thisthatandtother etc were really just making up the numbers.

As it becomes harder and harder to qualify a Grand National runner should the entry requirements be tightened up so all the competitors have a realistic chance of winning the race?

Let us know what you think about this general issue and if you think Cerium can improve still further and be involved in the finish of the Grand National 2010.

The names that stand out at the moment include

Aggies Lad
Badgerlaw
Ballycullen Boy
Casey Jones
Church Island
Duers
Mansony
Parsons Pistol
Powerstation
Royal County Star
Silver Jaro

Some unlikely candidates here particularly Mansony and Silver Jaro who are both better known for successes over two miles. It will be interesting to see if Mansony does run as his current mark of 157 could cause havoc with the handicap.

Casey Jones and Parsons Pistol stand out as young horses to watch and top class hurdler Powerstation could step into handicap company over fences for the first time.

The Munster National has been won by some good horses in the last decade such as Mossbank, More Than A Stroll, Foxchapel King and most recently Paul Nicholls’ Dear Villez.

Do any of the entries appeal to you as Grand National horses of the future? Or can you see any of the horses in the Munster National ending up in the Grand National 2010? What are your fancies for the race itself?

It’s certainly feasible that an Irish trainer could eye this as a good place to have a run for a horse who has the long term aim of Aintree and there are a number of potential Grand National runners still engaged at Listowel on Wednesday 16th September including:

Backstage
Hoo La Baloo
Royal County Star
Church Island
Northern Alliance
Himalayan Trail

Also in the field is dual Kerry National winner Ponmeoath and David Pipe’s improving handicapper, Star Of Germany.

Trainer Form
David Pipe will be hoping his charge will become the first British trained winner of this race since Ferdy Murphy’s Macs Supreme in 2000.
The British raiders are also represented by Paul Nicholls’ Hoo La Baloo. This is a race Nicholls has attempted to win for a number of years sending over the likes of General Claremont, Galapiat Du Mesnil and most recently, Oulart.
However, the trainers to watch out for are Monty’s Pass’ trainer Jimmy Mangan who has Himalayan Trail still entered and particularly, Willie Mullins.
Mullins has had eleven runners in the last ten years in the Kerry National and they have yielded two wins (Bothar Na and Euro Leader) and two more runner-up spots so this is undoubtedly a race Mullins likes to target.
At this stage, Willie Mullins has two horses left in the declarations, 2006 winner Bothar Na and the inexperienced chaser, Sonnium.

Do any of the entries appeal to you as Grand National horses? Is there a Monty’s Pass lurking in the Kerry National? What are your fancies for the race itself?

The title here may raise a few eyebrows as the Galway Plate may not be renowned as a race that throws up Grand National runners but Irish Invader, Baily Breeze and Bothar Na are three horses that have run in both the Galway Plate and the Grand National recently and a couple of other well known horses have had strong associations with the Grand National: 2006 Plate winner Far From Trouble and 2003 Grand National winner Monty’s Pass.
Far From Trouble began to realise his potential when taking the 2006 Galway race and was made favourite for the Grand National on the strength of his win in the Plate and also a couple of eye-catching defeats at the Cheltenham Festival and in the Irish National. Sadly injury intervened and Far From Trouble didn’t make it to Aintree but it does highlight that the Galway Plate can throw up horses that can shake up the betting at Aintree.
Monty Regularly Ran In Plate
2003 Grand National winner Monty’s Pass ran in the Galway Plate from 2000 to 2002 finishing 2nd, 6th and 6th. He is indicative of the type of Irish chaser who tends to run at Galway season after season. The Plate provides a quality field for horses that may prefer good ground, something not seen that often in Ireland! Consequently horses tend to run in the race year after year even if (as with Monty’s Pass) the race itself may not provide the type of stamina test they would require to be ultra competitive. Horses such as the ones highlighted in the list below are the type we are looking for to see if any of the Irish trainers are advertising early intentions with their charges and lining them up for a campaign aimed at Aintree.
What Should Be looking For In A Galway Plate Winner?
Winners of the Galway Plate can be at the other end of the spectrum to horses such as Monty’s Pass with a couple of speedsters such as Ansar and Grimes successful in the last ten years but the majority tend to be proven at 20-22 furlongs over fences and, crucially, their ability to act on the ground shouldn’t be left to trust as all the winners in the last ten years had won on the prevailing ground conditions or on a variety of grounds from good to firm to soft. Previous winning form at Galway should also be not seen as a negative with three of the last ten victors coming into the race as previous course and distance winners. No horse older than nine had won in the last ten years so that would appear to put a question mark against quite a few fancied horses.

Fifty-two horses are still entered in the Galway Plate at time of writing and the ones that immediately stand out as potential Aintree candidates in my eyes are:

Hoo La Baloo
Royal County Star
Church Island
Oodachee
Bothar Na
Oscar India

The last two named would probably have to improve somewhat to enter Aintree calculations given their relatively low ratings but a win here could catapult them into the reckoning but Oscar India could be more of a proposition for Fairyhouse given he has already run well at the track. Church Island has interested a number of our posters since finishing runner-up to Niche Market in the Irish National and then having a decent run in the Whitbread (or whatever it’s called these days! Sorry B365!) Church Island is definitely interesting but the one that I will be watching closely this year is Oodachee. I was very impressed with his effort in the Topham behind Irish Raptor but I’m not sure what to make of his follow-up fifth at Sandown? Only beaten just over six lengths in the 2007 Irish National but then Pulled Up a year later in the same race, I am undecided if this horse stays marathon trips or not? A Marju pedigree does not inspire confidence on that score but I would like to hear people’s long term opinions on Oodachee.

Two To Avoid This Year?
Oslot was the youngest horse to win the Galway Plate in the last decade at six years old and the same team have the current favourite in Roby De Cimbre but he looks to lack the obvious quality of his stablemate from last year and I would be keen to take him on.
A faller in the race won by Oslot was Tony Martin’s Green Mile and he appears to have been targeted at this race for some time so it would be no surprise to see his current price evaporate. However, he is still to record a win over fences and whilst he may turn out to be well handicapped he will have to jump better than his previous efforts over fences.
Who Do You Fancy And Will They End Up At Aintree?
I’ll personally be looking at the horses in the handicap rated 119-135 (eight of the last ten winners fitted into that group) this week and seeing if I can find something with proven stamina at least 20 furlongs and the capacity to perform on good or good to firm ground. I’ll add a couple of ideas on to this post for people to discuss but why not let us know your ideas on the Galway Plate on this page and don’t forget to give us all your views on runners in the race that might end up at Aintree.