Both horses are now 10/1 in some places although speedy punters may be able to snap up 13.5 on Betfair about The Package.

2009 Grand National fourth State Of Play and Grand National 2008 runner-up King Johns Castle have also come in for solid support with punters obviously feeling that horses with experience of the Grand National Fences is the way to go.

2009 Becher Chase winner Vic Venturi is one horse who has been on the drift today presumably as a result of losing Grand National jockey Paddy Flood who broke a collar bone in a bad fall today in the Melling Chase from the sadly fatally injured Schindlers Hunt. Trainer Dessie Hughes has opted to replace Flood with Roger Loughran.

Good luck to all our readers and brilliant Grand National Guide blog contributors tomorrow – obviously we can’t all win but let’s hope most of us show a profit and that all the horses (and jockeys!) come back safe and sound.

Thanks a lot

The declarations for the Grand National have been released and all the original top forty Grand National Runners stood their ground meaning that well backed horses such as Chief Dan George and Whinstone Boy miss out. The reserves for Saturday’s race will be in this order:

Silver Birch
Cerium
Royal Rosa
Knowhere

The reserves will come into play if there are any non-runners announced before 9am on Friday.

In other news, jockeys have been confirmed for some of the leading fancies with AP McCoy going with Don’t Push It thus leaving Can’t Buy Time to Richie McLernon and, more surprisingly, Nina Carberry being announced as the Grand National jockey for recent purchase Character Building.
As things stand, high-profile jocks Richard Johnson and Choc Thornton remain without a ride in the Grand National 2010.

Big Fella Thanks currently remains the 7/1 favourite for the Grand National 2010 with Boylesports

Ballyholland is trained by Colin McBratney in Northern Ireland and the Co. Down trainer reported that his charge is in good order:

“He’s in great form. I just hope the weather is going to dry out a bit this week. I think we’re supposed to have a better forecast and I’d like to have nice ground for him,” said McBratney.

Also now heading to Aintree is Flintoff from the 2009 Grand National winning stable of Venetia Williams. Originally planned to run in the Irish Grand National, once it became clear he was guaranteed a place at Aintree he was withdrawn at Fairyhouse and has been re-routed to the Grand National.

Andrew Tinkler is due to take the ride for owners Paul Beck and cricketing legend Freddie Flintoff.

Top weight will now defintely be Madison Du Berlais as David Pipe’s yard have confirmed today that last year’s Aintree Totesport Bowl winner will be confirmed for the Grand National 2010 and will be ridden by Tom Scudamore. Pipe’s assistant Chester Barnes also confirmed Danny Cook will be on Pablo Du Charmil and Johnny Farrelly will be aboard Piraya. However, there was no news regarding Timmy Murphy’s choice of ride as Barnes revealed that the 2008 Grand National winning rider has still not decided on either his winning mount that day, Comply Or Die or up and coming stable star, The Package. Graham Lee will ride whichever horse Murphy discards.

The full list of horses who were not confirmed is Notre Pere, Air Force One, Deutschland, Chelsea Harbour, Dooney’s Gate, Equus Maximus, Lennon, Razor Royale, Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer.

This will leave a few anxious days for fancied horses such as Silver Birch, Whinstone Boy and Chief Dan George who will need more horses to come out at the 48 hour declaration stage.

In other recent news, the well-fancied Character Building has been purchased by David and Patricia Thompson who also bought Party Politics three days before his Grand National win in 1992. This looks likely to mean the end of a possible fairytale for amateur rider Jamie Codd as the Thompsons are keen to engage the services of a professional jockey. Top jockeys without a confirmed ride include Richard Johnson and Robert Thornton, although Character Building’s former jockey Dougie Costello has also been mentioned as a likely contender.

For fans of Silver Birch and Cerium, British Horseracing Authority Head of Handicapping Phil Smith today ranked the horses on 10st 5lb in order of current ratings and Silver Birch and Cerium are jointly on number 41. There will be a draw at Weatherbys tomorrow (Tuesday) to determine which of the two horses will be ranked 41 and 42.

Big Fella Thanks currently remains the 9/1 favourite for the Grand National 2010 with Betfair

Lots of the potential Grand National Runners are being backed this weekend with money coming in for last year’s winner Mon Mome, 2008 Becher Chase winner Black Apalachi and Irish raider Whinstone Boy.

Paul Nicholls’ Big Fella Thanks remains the 7/1 favourite for the Grand National with the majority of firms including Grand National 2010 with Ladbrokes.

However, the most significant gamble looks to be on the JP McManus owned Dont Push It who AP McCoy has stated he is leaning towards as his mount in the Grand National. The majority of firms appeared to have laid the horse over the last couple of days although you can still get 33/1 with Grand National 2010 with Paddy Power.

Please use this thread now for all your thoughts and tips on the Grand National 2010.

I have to admit this is not an area I know much about so perhaps I could open up the info to our knowledgeable blog users and they could inform any new readers if there are sires with Grand National Runners we should be looking out for.

In the past ten years four sires seem to stand out for win and place purposes:

Supreme Leader
Un Desperado
Montelimar
Roselier

Montelimar and Roselier are not represented this year but Supreme Leader is represented in 2010 by a number of leading fancies. He has been responsible for two placed horses in the last ten years – former Welsh National winner Supreme Glory and 2002 runner-up Whats Up Boys. His progeny running this year include

Arbor Supreme
Can’t Buy Time
Whinstone Boy

Un Desperado also managed to get two different horses placed in that time in Philson Run and Nil Desperandum. He is represented in Grand National 2010 by Maljimar.

One other sire to look out for could be Old Vic. Sire of 2008 winner and Grand National 2010 runner Comply Or Die. Old Vic also has the following horses entered this year:

Black Apalachi
Vic Venturi
Don’t Push It
Chelsea Harbour
Mr Pointment

It would be great to have some input on sires this year that could be successful and generally which sires are the best to look out for in these long distance chases.

Thanks a lot

The latter’s drop in price could have been instigated by a supposition that Tony McCoy was going to ride but this has turned out not to be the case with Paul Townend confirmed by Willie Mullins as the big race jockey earlier this week.

Subsequently there has been some support for Can’t Buy Time with punters second guessing that this means that McCoy will be on this one of the remaining three JP McManus owned horses left in the Grand National.

Personally, I think he may opt for Don’t Push It, a horse that has always been a challenge over fences and one who provided one of McCoy’s epic rides when winning the John Smiths Handicap at Aintree last year. The other option would be King Johns Castle and given that horses Aintree form perhaps a ride on him is not out of the question for the Champ either?

What if McCoy doesn’t really fancy the chances of any of these horses and gets offered an outside ride that he does fancy? Is it feasible he would be allowed to not ride for McManus?

Tell us what you think here.

This has understandably seen Big Fella Thanks‘ odds harden into a general price of 8/1 and he is now the clear favourite for the Grand National.
However Betfair are still currently offering odds of 10 about Big Fella Thanks

Another jockey confirmation came this week with the news that Grand National winning rider Liam Treadwell, who was successful last year on Mon Mome, has been booked by Paul Nicholls to ride outsider Nozic, who will be leased to a group of competition winners for the day.

If any of our readers hear of any confirmed jockey bookings for Grand National 2010 please post them here

Of the last ten winners of the Grand National just two have run at the Cheltenham Festival before going on to win at Aintree:

2007 Silver Birch 2nd Cross Country

2002 Bindaree 7th William Hill

Is this somewhat surprising? Should we, therefore, be moving towards horses who haven’t had a run at the Festival.

If we go back to the previous ten runnings of the Grand National the stats start to look a little better for Cheltenham runners:

1996 Rough Quest 2nd Gold Cup

1994 Miinnehoma 7th Gold Cup

1991 Seagram 1st Ritz Club (Now William Hill)

1990 Mr Frisk 4th Kim Muir

So, do you take a Cheltenham run into consideration when making your selections for Aintree? It would seem that the proximity of the meetings may not be the reason that horses may not perform as well as expected (for example, Mon Mome ran in the Midlands National after the Cheltenham Festival last year) but perhaps it is that connections have one eye on Cheltenham and one eye on Aintree rather than focusing totally on the Grand National.

So, has the following Grand National Horses runs at Cheltenham been a plus or minus for the likes of The Package, Niche Market and Tricky Trickster? Let us know what you think.