Six out of the last ten Grand National winners have been trained in Ireland but yet most punters knowledge of Irish form is sketchy to say the least – so perhaps it is time to delve deeper into the background required of the raiders from across the sea?

What, if anything, do the recent Irish winners of the Grand National have in common?

Recent Irish Winners

2007 Silver Birch
2006 Numbersixvalverde
2005 Hedgehunter
2003 Monty’s Pass
2000 Papillon
1999 Bobbyjo

Analysing the form of the Irish winners of the National shows that most had the following criteria:

All were 9 or 10 years old
5 out of 6 had previously won a top class handicap chase (the other finished a close second in an Irish National)
They had all only UR or Fell once at most in the whole of their career up to their victory at Aintree
5 out of 6 were rated between 135 and 143 at Xmas before their Aintree victory

This should really help us narrow down where to look for an idea of the Irish raider to follow for 2008.

Of particular interest to me is that all the Irish winners of our Grand Nationals had already shown top quality form in handicaps, with two winning Irish Nationals (and another who was a close 2nd), a Welsh National winner, a Kerry National winner and the winner of the prestigious Thyestes Chase.

Tony Martin’s Royal County Star meets all the above criteria for the 2008 National in that he was the impressive winner of the £44k Troytown Chase at Navan in November, is nine years old, has only fallen once in his career and is rated 136 by the Irish Turf Club at the time of writing. Slight concern is given due to the fact that he has never raced at further than three miles but his style of running suggests he will have the stamina for a race such as this and he looks very interesting at 25/1 with Better .

Also worth considering is last year’s strong Irish fancy, Point Barrow. He meets most of the consideration criteria, although last year’s fall at the first fence in the National takes him up to a total of two career falls. However, horses who have fallen in the National can go on and win in later attempts as Red Marauder, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch have all proved. In all other areas Point Barrow looks the perfect Irish raider and with another light campaign this season he may be more favourably handicapped come Aintree in April. He is 25/1 with Bet365.

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Looking at stats over the last 25 years shows that more Grand National winners have come from the Hennessy than any other race.The following Grand National winners each ran in the Hennessy Cognac Gold cup prior to winning the national.

1983 Corbiere - finished 5th in the Hennessy

1984 Hallo Dandy - p.u

1987 Maori Venture - 3rd 1990 Mr Frisk - 3rd

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Following his victory in Saturdays becher chase, ran over 3m2f of the Aintree Grand National course and fences, Mr Pointment shot to the head of the 2008 Grand National betting.Is Mr Pointments 16/1 quote from Bluesq to win the Grand National justified? Can the Becher chase lead us to the 2008 Grand National winner? Discuss!!

Why we should back horses which run well in the Becher to Win the Grand National

Fighting the corner for recent Becher winners are Silver Birch, and Amberleigh House who both won the Grand National after winning the Becher. Earth Summit also completed the double, but the other way round and some of us still wonder how 2003 Becher winner Clan Royal didn’t. In fact lets look at the last 10 Becher winners and see how they ran in following Grand Nationals.

2006 Euro Trek - pulled up in the 2007 Grand National

2005 Garvivonnian - pulled up 2006

2004 Silver Birch - Won 2007 at 33/1, Fell 2006

2003 Clan Royal - 2^nd 2004 at 10/1 (should have won but jockey dropped his whip and went the wrong way) Carried Out 2005 (would have won if a loose horse hadn’t run him off the course!) 3^rd 2006 at 5/1, 11^th 2007

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One of the hard luck stories from the 2007 Grand National undoubtedly belonged to the John Spearing trained and Mercy Rimell owned gelding, Simon.

The eight year old had jumped particularly well until coming to grief with only six fences to negotiate. He appeared to have plenty left in reserve at the time of his fall and many people will be keen to include him in their staking plans for the 2008 renewal.

John Spearing started Simon’s campaign for this season in the Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday and some race readers have voiced disappointment at his performance where he finished 26l 5th to a rejuvenated Sir Rembrandt. However, this horse always needs his first run of the season so anyone who has backed him for the big race at Aintree should not, in my opinion, be too downhearted. His jumping was, for the most part, accurate and safe until he became tired on ground that was obviously not ideal. Simon will strip fitter next time up and is undoubtedly a horse to watch closely in the run up to the 2008 National, especially if there is a chance of soft ground at Aintree.

Back Simon at 25/1 with Stan James

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State of Play, 2006 Hennessy winner and runner up in this year’s Charlie Hall Chase,  may have seemed an obvious candidate for the Grand National but he must be considered a very doubtful runner according to a quote from his trainer.

Evan Williams recently stated that “…he owes us nothing and will never run in a Grand National”.

This seems pretty categorical especially for a horse who was fairly near the forefront of the 2007 betting for Aintree showpiece until being withdrawn at the last forfeit stage. Connections could always have a change of heart but with prices being quoted as short as 25/1 for the 2008 event punters should think carefully before investing.

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Punters thinking of having an ante post bet on current Grand National joint favourite Hot Weld could be forced to think again after the recent comments of trainer Ferdy Murphy.

 The 8 year old was the star of the stable last season winning the Scottish National and Bet Fred Gold Cup but Murphy has signalled a note of caution regarding the necessary ground conditions at Aintree.

He stated that Hot Weld “wouldn’t win a seller in soft ground.” He also went on to say: “The Grand National has to be the big aim and we would love to run him as he looks the ideal type, but the ground would have to be in his favour, and if it wasn’t then we would go back to Ayr.”

Ante post punters can tell from what Murphy is saying here that the National is the big goal for the yard but soft ground would almost certainly bring an end to his participation in the race. The chances of soft ground must be unlikely at that time of year but punters should take that into consideration if they take the 20/1 with Better

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Jonjo O’Neill and Tony McCoy have both recently been expressing their delight at the prospect of last year’s Irish Grand National winner Butler’s Cabin tackling the English version of the race.

McCoy was quoted recently as saying: “The Grand National is the one race that still eludes me, but in Butler’s Cabin I reckon, if he stays in one piece, he could be the one.”

Jonjo O’Neill was also keen on the JP McManus owned 7 year old when asked for his views on the Grand National: “The further he goes, the better he goes and hopefully he would have a chance at Aintree. It would be lovely to win the National for JP and hopefully this fella might be the one who does it for us.”

Butler’s Cabin can be backed at 16/1 with Bet365

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2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch has been ruled out of the season by his trainer Gordon Elliott.

The ten year old had been listed at 20/1 favourite for the 2008 race but will not take part after damaging his leg.

Injury problems earlier in Silver Birch’s career had forced him to miss a season and put many of us off backing him to win the 2007 race! Lets hope he is back fit and well to attempt to regain his crown in the 2009 Grand National.

Butlers Cabin is the current 2008 GN favourite at 16/1 with Ladbrokes, followed by a host of horses at 20 and 25/1 including Bewleys Berry, Point Barrow, Slim Pickings, Hot Weld and McKelvey.  2006 Winner Hedgehunter is 33/1 with bet 365 whilst 2005 winner Numbersixvalverde is 33/1 with William Hill.

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This blog will keep you up to date with all the news and information for the 2008 Grand National and beyond.

Look out for early tips, breaking news, key trial reviews and betting coups.

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