The announcement of the Grand National weights has seen the usual clamour for value start in earnest but some of the gambles seem a little off beam to me.

Beef Or Salmon? Neither, thanks!

Strangest of all is the news that a couple of firms indicate that there has been money for top weight Beef Or Salmon. Surely 11st 12lb at 12 years old is a massive ask? As good a horse as he has been, I’m not sure the National would have ever been his ‘cup of tea’. I think the owner of that ante post wager can tear it up pretty quickly.

Bizarre to also see Character Building being backed when his trainer stated this week that the Irish National was the more likely target? Now, trainers do change their minds (!) but it seems a dangerous game to be backing the horse at this stage.

Point Barrow backed
I’m quite pleased to see Point Barrow being cut into 20/1 with most firms as the 25/1 voucher has pride of place in my Ante Post collection. 10st 10lb seems very fair……

Not For Me

Not sure I’d fancy getting involved with Mr Pointment with 11-8. That looks a tad harsh.

The worst price post-weights I’ve seen is 33/1 with Coral about Wonderkid. Not sure how they expect him to get in off 8st 11lbs with 148 above him? I think they would be quite safe at three times that price!

What about you?

Who stands out for you now that the weights have been announced? Who do you think has been treated harshly? Let us know your ideas.

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The entries for the Grand National have seen many trainers come out in positive terms with regards to their Aintree ambitions but a couple of the well fancied runners could be giving the big race a swerve.

 Character Building, trained by John Quinn, is as short as 20/1 with some bookmakers but is more likely to head for Fairyhouse and the Irish National according to his trainer. The Aintree race is still a consideration but he may wait another year.

Also probably heading for the Irish National rather than Aintree is Royal County Star, a 25/1 shot with most bookmakers. Tony Martin reported this week that his horse has just come back after a break but would more than likely not run at Aintree.

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How many entries?

The entries for the 2008 Grand National have been announced and with 150 horses entered at the pre-weights stage we have the second largest entry in history.

Only in 2005 were more horses entered and the BHA Handicapper Phil Smith faces a mammoth task in trying to allocate weights to all the horses before Tuesday when the weights are due to be revealed.

Likely starters and who won’t be taking part?

With the likes of Beef Or Salmon, Turpin Green, Celestial Gold and 2005 winner Hedgehunter all entered at this stage the weights are likely to have quite a classy look to them and horses with a low official rating must have little chance of making the actual race. Last year a rating of the mid 130’s was the cut off point for the race and it may be something similar will be required this year.

A number of horses that were well fancied in ante-post betting have not been given entries: Halcon Generaldais, Miko De Beauchene and Neptune Collonges. Doubts had been voiced about the participation in the Aintree race of all three by connections but all temptation has been removed now that they are not included in the entries. 2006 winner Numbersixvalverde has also not been entered due to injury.

Raiders from overseas

The field is buoyed by numerous entries from Ireland, who have won four out of the last five Grand Nationals and six entries from France, including Kelami, LAmi and Nitrat from the powerful yard of Francois Doumen.

Check back here after the weights have been announced for more news and views.

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Point Barrow

Point Barrow caught the eye in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park on the 24th January when keeping on over three miles to finish a very respectable fourth to Priests Leap. Pat Hughes’ ten year-old had to burden top weight of 11st 4lbs in heavy ground and the first time blinkers seemed to sharpen him up.

This will have aided his Grand National preparation no end and it was a touch surprising that none of the main bookmakers saw fit to reduce his price for the big race from 25/1.

As alluded to in other articles in this blog, Point Barrow should have a major chance in the National on grounds of class and stamina and we should not be too distracted by his first fence fall in the race last year.

Mattock Ranger

Meanwhile, also running in the Thyestes Chase was Noel Meade’s Cork Grand National winner Mattock Ranger. He has also been targeted at the Aintree race but ran poorly at Gowran Park and was pulled up before three out. He had gone up ten pounds for his win at Cork and it may just be that the handicapper has his measure, although the ground here was very different to his last win.  25/1 with Better for Mattock Ranger looks a little skinny considering his latest run.

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Hi Cloy - Don’t even bother looking up the form, he’s a two and a half miler!

Michael Hourigan’s Hi Cloy won the two and half mile Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles recently and the trainer immediately nominated the Grand National as the target for this winner of four Grade One races and ten races overall. The horse was rated 150 before his latest win yet the victory did not create a ripple in the Ante Post Market for the National and Hi Cloy is still available at 40/1 and bigger.

Why should that be? The answer could be that Hi Cloy is perceived as unlikely to stay the 4miles 4furlong trip in the National as all but one of his ten wins have come at 21 furlongs or under. This may or may not be true but how many people have just dismissed Hi Cloy’s chance because they view him purely as a two and a half mile chaser and they’ve read the stats that say those horses “can’t win a National”?

Don’t just swallow the stats - do your own research

My point is that horses that run predominantly over shorter trips shouldn’t be dismissed because of the distances they currently run over but their chance should be analysed on their probability of staying the much longer trip.
Amberleigh House - Grand Annual to Grand National!

Let’s look at Amberleigh House as an example. The 2004 Grand National winner had raced 34 times under National Hunt Rules before attempting a trip in excess of two and half miles! He had raced at the Cheltenham Festival on two occasions prior to trying three miles for the first time as a 9yo - in the County Hurdle and the Grand Annual – not the sort of background you would expect from a future Grand National winner. So much so that in his first attempt at the National Fences he was allowed to go off at 150/1 behind Red Marauder – punters were obviously convinced he would not stay the trip. He was Brought Down on this occasion but hindsight suggests that 150/1 was a massive price.

Yet Amberleigh House’s breeding suggested all along that longer distances would not be a problem as he was out of Buckskin and a mare with plenty of stamina in her pedigree and two other 3mile plus victories ensued later in his career as well as the National victory.

Amberleigh House’s victory in 2004 shows that horses with extensive experience at shorter distances will not NECESSARILY be inconvenienced by stepping up in trip in the National. Therefore horses such as Hi Cloy, Vodka Bleu and Le Volfoni should be considered on their individual merits for this year’s race and not dismissed purely as two and half mile handicappers.

Let us know what you think about this theory.

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Willie Mullins’ charge Snowy Morning continues to be well backed for the Grand National following the Irish trainer’s assertion earlier this month that the Aintree race would be the horse’s target and not the Gold Cup.

The eight year old gelding was favourite for the Hennessy at Newbury in November but fell at the seventh fence behind Denman. That was Snowy Morning’s only outing over fences this season and Mullins now intends keeping the horse over hurdles until the National weights are released.

This tactic has previously worked well with Hedgehunter and Snowy Morning has proved no slouch over the smaller obstacles recording victories at Fairyhouse and Punchestown since falling at Newbury.

Is he worth a bet?

Whilst Snowy Morning’s exploits over obstacles have been creditable this season I would want to see him perform with credit back over the fences before considering backing him at near favouritism for the Grand National.

After a courageous 10 length second to Denman in the Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last year he ended the season seemingly over the top with a disappointing run at Punchestown. Next came the fall at Newbury so the gamble seems to be based on his potential rather than what he has achieved over fences.

The Grand National handicapper is unlikely to take many chances with a horse who has got within ten lengths of Denman at level weights and it may be that Mullins’ horse will need another year of experience to replace Hedgehunter as the yard’s number one contender.

Snowy Morning is currently a 16/1 chance with Paddy Power.

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The National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival has been the subject of much debate over the years and, in some cases, calls for its removal from the calendar after four fatalities in the last two years.

The result has been for the race to be reduced in distance from 4m 1f to 3m 6f. This is possibly understandable given the circumstances but it seems a shame for a race that has provided a platform for winners of top class jumps races such as Hot Weld, Celestial Gold, Stormez and Timbera.

National Hunt Chase Loser to Grand National winner?

But it is as a source of potential Grand National winners that the race is really interesting with Silver Birch and Hedgehunter both running in this race early in their careers. (Aintree runner up Supreme Glory also ran in the NH chase earlier in his career). Silver Birch and Hedgehunter were unsuccessful at Cheltenham (Hedgehunter very unluckily!) but it is a useful early indication of the very high levels of stamina possessed by these horses.
If we translate this to horses that have run in recent runnings of the National Hunt Chase who may be possibles for Aintree this season then we have horses who we can be pretty sure will have no stamina doubts when it comes to battling around the elbow.

This season’s candidates?

Butler’s Cabin won the 2007 National Hunt Chase and then went on to record a famous victory in the Irish National as well. He has very obvious claims for the Aintree National but I’m just slightly concerned that he had a very, very hard season last year even finishing in distress after the NH Chase so I’d be quite keen to leave Butler’s Cabin out of my staking plan – nevertheless his stamina can no longer be taken into question.

More interesting to me are horses who were beaten that day at Cheltenham, as in the style of the horses outlined above. It may be that the horses who get beat in the National Hunt Chase need another season or two to mature into their racing careers and Character Building and Nine De Sivola could well reverse placings with Butler’s Cabin if they meet again in April yet both horses are double the odds in the betting market.

Finally, back in 2005 Point Barrow finished fifth in the National Hunt Chase when 10/3 favourite. Pat Hughes’ horse has since proved himself to be a top class handicapper winning the Irish National and the Pierse Chase but the fact he was given this Cheltenham outing so early in his career underlines his stamina credentials and he is a horse that warrants serious consideration for Aintree.

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Last season’s Irish National winner Butler’s Cabin made a pleasing return to action at Leicester on the 9th January when a staying on third behind Jack The Giant, beaten nineteen lengths.

Connections have stated that Butler’s Cabin has had plenty of rest since his hard season last year and that he will need plenty of races to get 100% fit for Aintree.

An outing over hurdles in the near future is very much on the cards and Jonjo O’Neill is reportedly very happy with the progress of the JP McManus owned eight year old.

Is Butler’s Cabin the “Special One”?

Could this be the horse that finally breaks AP McCoy’s Aintree hoodoo?

Recent Irish Grand National winners Numbersixvalverde and Bobbyjo have gone on to Aintree success in the following season so perhaps Butlers Cabin is the horse to succeed where so many have failed for McCoy and McManus?

Butler’s Cabin is currently a 16/1 chance with Bet365.

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Some people love them, some people hate them but statistics are now a big part of the information allocated alongside the big races in the racing calendar.

No race is bigger than the Grand National and one of the most interesting stats is the poor record of previous winners when they come back to try and win the race on further occasions.

Usually horses with course and distance victories would have a distinct advantage over rivals without course experience, especially on a track as individual as Aintree but it would appear that the handicapper usually takes too stern a view of these previous performances and no horse since Red Rum in 1977 has been able to repeat a victory in the Grand National.

Previous Winners in 2008?

There are likely to be two previous winners in the race in 2008 in Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde.

Both have unsuccessfully attempted to win the race again since their victories, Hedgehunter finishing a gallant 2nd in 2006 and 9th in 2007 and Numbersixvalverde finishing 6th in 2007.

So, does this mean we have two relatively well fancied horses we can just remove from our calculations? Both horses figure at under 33/1 with some bookmakers but it would appear, if we can believe the stats, that their chances are slim.

Current Form?

Hedgehunter is now 12 years old and his stable reported he burst a blood vessel on his reappearance. He is possibly due to run over hurdles shortly before a possible run in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown.

It would seem a big ask for Hedgehunter to come back to the sort of form of a couple of seasons ago but perhaps the handicapper will relent and give him a bit more of a chance this year? After all Red Rum did get beat in 75 and 76 before regaining the National in 77 so perhaps Hedgehunter could do the same?

Age also appears to be against Numbersixvalverde emulating Red Rum and reports seem to suggest he has been slow to come to hand this season.

Perhaps, then, we can eliminate these former winners from our equation? Does the handicapper make it too difficult generally for winners of the National to repeat the performance?

Let us know what you think.

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Long range ante-post punters will be reeling with the news that last year’s BetFred Gold Cup and Scottish Grand National winner Hot Weld has been withdrawn from the 2008 Grand National at Aintree.

Ferdy Murphy reported that his star stayer would be out for the season with a leg problem. However, the North Yorkshire trainer was hopeful that the horse would return to training for the 2008/09 season. At the time of his withdrawl Hot Weld was generally third favourite for the Grand National.

Now, though, punters are faced with a conundrum.

Murphy has become something of the punters friend in recent years with a host of winners at the big meetings and Joe’s Edge from his yard was backed down to joint favouritism for the National last year only to jump poorly. Nevertheless, it seems we can now be assured of a powerful Aintree challenge from this ambitious yard so which horse might the stable get behind now Hot Weld is out?

The stable has Joe’s Edge again and Leading Man outlined as possible candidates for the big race but both have had their problems with these fences and do not seem the most likely to receive the stable’s thumbs up. New Alco has also been mentioned by some for Aintree but his stamina may be in doubt and it may be that stable confidence will now fall behind the novice, Nine De Sivola.

Nine De Sivola is no ordinary novice though after finishing runner up in the Eider, Irish and Scottish Nationals. It is easy to see that the Murphy trump card could be moved to this young horse as stamina is his strong suit and recent National winners have had stamina in abundance.

Will Nine De Sivola make up into a genuine National contender? Will Joe’s Edge find his old form? Or does Ferdy Murphy have another horse lurking somewhere that could turn out to be the springer in the National market?

Let us know your thoughts.

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