This is the second part of our look at runners in the 2008 Grand National and how they performed at the Cheltenham Festival:

Over The Creek
I’ve seen Over The Creek touted in a few places (including on this site) as a horse to consider for the National this year but I really could not go along with this way of thinking.
For me, twice in his last three runs his stamina has given out at extreme distances and I can’t see why this should be any different in the Grand National. He was swinging away on the bridle jumping the second last in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but found much less than looked likely, in the end finishing seven lengths behind Alan King’s Old Benny.
Previously, he looked to lack the stamina of the winner and runner up in the Welsh National and given the likely faster pace he will encounter in the National itself, I can’t see him being anywhere near the leading contenders at the Elbow.

Knowhere
Connections must be quite disappointed by the jumping display put up by Knowhere in the Gold Cup. They should be applauded for taking on the big boys when it might have been easier to go for the Ryanair but he made a series of mistakes and it’s very hard to get enthusiastic about his chances at Aintree on the back of such a poor round of jumping, especially when being asked to carry such a massive weight.

Joe’s Edge
Joe’s Edge was beaten a long way in tenth place in the Kim Muir but I’m not sure this tells the whole story. Nina Carberry was pretty tender on the Ferdy Murphy trained eleven year old and it may be that this was a confidence booster after unseating Keith Mercer at Doncaster the time before.
Joe’s Edge has a pretty dismal record in the National with a distant seventh place in 2006 (admittedly on ground probably too soft for him) and pulled up when co-favourite last year. It could well be that Murphy is lining this horse up for another gamble and given the stable’s record in recent years in big races, if he makes the cut, he is definitely worthy of consideration.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 1 Comment »

The latest set of entries for the Aintree Grand National was relaeased today with a total of ten horses being withdrawn. They are:

Celestial Gold, Monkerhostin, Rule Supreme, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk, Kilbeggan Blade, Bob Bob Bobbin, Captain Corelli and Brooklyn Breeze.

With the withdrawl of Celestial Gold, Hi Cloy and Hedgehunter are now joint top weights on 11 stone 12 pounds.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | No Comments »

A number of Grand National candidates ran last week at the Cheltenham Festival but did any of them enhance their Aintree chances with good performances?

Ran at the Festival and The National - Cross them off?
Only one Festival winner has gone on to success in the Grand National since 1961 (Seagram 1991) but eight horses who were beaten at the Festival have gone on to be successful at Aintree since 1982 so it makes sense to have a look and see who might have been having a final prep run before their real big race target.

William Hill Trophy.
Traditionally the Cheltenham race where most National horses tune up is the William Hill Trophy and this year was no different with a whole host of National entries taking their chances.

The two that faired best were L’Ami and Patsy Hall, who finished third and fourth respectively.

L’Ami
L’Ami was backed into favouritism for the race presumably due to what now looks an attractive handicap mark. He ran well enough finishing third, getting beat in the end less than three lengths after making a mistake at the second last fence.
He runs off the same mark of 145 in the National but finished a tailed-off tenth of twelve finishers last year to Silver Birch after weakening three fences from home. His jumping started to deteriorate from Bechers second time around on that occasion indicating that his stamina is a major worry even off a mark of 9lb less this year.
However, the bookies were sufficiently impressed to halve his odds from 66/1 (now 33/1 with Betfred ) but you have to wonder how much of that is to do with the possible McManus/McCoy influence. Good horse that he is (or was?) he’s had plenty of racing for a nine year old and looks more likely to be suited by a Becher Chase than the extreme distance of the National.

Patsy Hall
Patsy Hall was the subject of the usual Tony Martin wheelbarrow of cash plunge for the William Hill Trophy and very nearly went off favourite in the end. He, too, ran well and looked the winner for most of the way only to make a mistake at the last, weakening markedly on the flat to finish nearly nine lengths back in fourth behind the winner, An Accordion.
It could be argued the Patsy Hall might have needed this race after an absence stretching back to 1st December and given the fairly dismal display of the Martin runners at the meeting his backers for the National could take some hope from this performance. Detractors might argue that this performance (and his Irish National failure in 2007) makes the horse look like a non-stayer but he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree (Saddlers Hall and a Roselier mare!) so it would suggest he would be very much suited by longer distances.
In contrast to L’Ami, most bookies left Patsy Hall unchanged at 50/1 which is a tad surprising and, especially if a Martin plunge starts, could certainly offer an opportunity to make a profitable trade at those odds.

The Rest!
Other runners in the race who could surely not be supported must be Ollie Magern (7th), Fundamentalist (8th) and Monkerhostin (PU).
The first two named would have trouble staying four miles sitting on a bus and Monkerhostin’s performance in the National last year and shocking effort in this make him a cert no play.
The only other runner who could possibly be considered is Mon Mome who ran a funny race in finishing 6th. Outpaced at the mid-point off the race he stayed on strongly when all too late to finish 22 lengths adrift.
A former Welsh National and Tote Classic runner up he would make some sort of appeal over the longer trip of the National but it is now two years since he last got his head in front and he is still being asked to race in the National at a rating 11lb in advance of that last winning mark. His price remained unchanged after this race and he would not be making my shortlist.

More from the Cheltenham Festival later in the week – let us know who you think enhanced (or not!) their chances for the National at Cheltenham.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | No Comments »

Silver Birch - The start of a trend?

The victory of Silver Birch in last year’s Grand National inevitably makes form students go back through his form for ‘clues’ to see if the 2008 winner might take the same sort of path. It has been suggested in some quarters that Cross Country races could become good prep races for the National but is that really the case?

The race that stands out for many in Silver Birch’s form is his appearance in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham just four weeks before his famous victory at Aintree. Usually runners at the Cheltenham Festival do not fair that well in the National so perhaps it is the unusualness of the Cross Country course which prepared Silver Birch well for his victory?

Previous Cross Country Form

I decided to analyse previous placed runners in all cross country races at Cheltenham and see if their performance at Aintree AFTER being placed in a Cross Country race improved their form sufficiently to make them noteworthy for the National.

The following horses ran in the National AFTER being placed in a Cross Country race at Cheltenham. (No breakdown is made of the time lapse between the races, the listing is merely to see if placing in the first race may or may not have had a positive effect on their form, jumping, attitude etc.)

Cheltenham X Country      Placing + Horse       G National Fin Pos

12/11/99                        3rd Lucky Town            08/04/00 8th (20/1)

10/11/00                       1st Supreme Charm       07/04/01 UR (33/1)

10/11/00                      1st Supreme Charm       06/04/02 5th (28/1)

12/11/04                      1st Spot thedifference    09/04/05 18th (25/1)

13/03/07                     2nd Silver Birch              14/04/07 1st (33/1)

13/03/07                     3rd Le Duc                      14/04/07 UR (66/1)

Cross Country to Aintree - Why so few?

So, the most surprising thing is that from the eighteen Cheltenham Cross Country races prior to the 2007 National on only six occasions had a placed horse from a Cheltenham Cross Country race taken part at Aintree. Also, quite surprising is that, Silver Birch aside, the ones who have taken part have a pretty poor record.
All of the other Cross Country runners to take part in Grand Nationals were fairly well fancied with Supreme Charm doing the best of the others when a distant 5th to Bindaree in 2002.
This may suggest that other factors were at work in Silver Birch’s victory such as his undoubted stamina rather than the change of focus with the Cross Country races.

Unlikely to throw up too many National winners?

The quality of the runners in Cross Country races may improve over the next few seasons and in that case it may be that the National becomes a target for more of its placed horses. But if it continues to be a Enda Bolger benevolent fund then I think its fairly safe to look elsewhere for our National clues.

So tread carefully of the Royal Auclair’s, Wonderkid’s and whatever places in the BGC at Cheltenham this week as the chances of them repeating Silver Birch’s Aintree heroics look pretty slim.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | No Comments »

Favourite Picture Not So Cloudy

Cloudy Lane is as short 6/1 to win the Aintree Grand National following his third consecutive win of the season, this time in the highly valuable Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster.

Donald McCain’s young chaser had earlier recorded good victories at Haydock and Ayr as well as the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007.

6/1? No Thanks

However, 6/1 looks a very short price now especially as his stamina seemed to give out before he fell in last season’s Irish Grand National. That may well have been due to the effects of a hard season and he is a very interesting runner at Aintree but his stamina is not cast in stone so single figure odds could surely not be contemplated.

Mr Pointment’s participation in some doubt?

Disappointnment of the race was 6/4 favourite Mr Pointment who weakened quickly from the fifth last fence. He was later reported as having finished distressed and had broken a blood vessel. 

His supporters for the Aintree race now face an anxious wait to see if he recovers in time to take his place. 

Posted in Grand National 2008 | No Comments »

Breeding experts will tell you that the stamina comes from the sire. So surely, in a race where the most stamina is required, we should be able to learn something by looking at the sires of past national winners. Are there any trends to help us find the 2008 runners with the greatest stamina?

The greatest Grand National sire of recent years is Roselier who is responsible for Bindaree and Royal Athlete as well as five placings in the last 14 years. In the same period he has produced 5 winners of Scottish or Welsh nationals and 4 placings. And all this is from only around 40 odd runners.

The only sire to get anywhere near this great record is Montelimar who produced national winners Hedgehunter and Montys Pass, as well as two other placings, from just 13 runners.

Montelimar is represented by Hedgehunter once again this year but of much more interest are Roselier’s representatives D’Argent and Ossmoses (if he gets into the race off 10st 3lb) .

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 1 Comment »

Its been mentioned on several threads on this blog already that you should simply put a line through all French breds running in the Grand National. Why? Well the argument is that one hasn’t won since 1909.

But I would urge you not to be so hasty. French breds do stay!

Since 1994 French breds have filled six places in the Grand National itself as well as winning and placing in many other nationals.

In the same time frame French breds have been responsible for 4 winners and 10 places in the Scottish and Welsh nationals.

In 2007 alone French breds filled the first two places in the Irish and Welsh Nationals and the runner up spot in the Scottish National.

Are you telling me that L’Aventure, Gingembre and Halcon Genelardais don’t stay? What about Clan Royal and Blowing Wind? Royal Auclair? Mely Moss, Encore En Peu? Miko De Beauchene?

There are some great trends which do make sense when trying to narrow down the Grand National runners but the French bred exclusion theory should be treated with caution.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | No Comments »

No Beef?

Beef Or Salmon looks set to have his target changed from the Grand National to the Irish alternative at Fairyhouse after connections were disappointed at being allocated the welter burden of 11st 12lb.

Michael Hourigan’s 12 year old would have been asked to shoulder top weight and that did look a very tall order at this stage in his illustrious career.

Who will be top weight now?

Beef Or Salmon’s non-particpation would mean joint top weights would fall to Celestial Gold and Turpin Green and a slight rise in the weights. This would probably mean good news to those of us compiling short lists of horses that meet the various criteria on trends etc as the weights going up will pull a couple more horses over the 11stone barrier (or whatever cut off point you are using).

Let us know if Beef Or Salmon’s likely defection will make a difference to your shortlists and how you may or may not have to redefine your selection criteria.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 2 Comments »

Last Saturday saw a large number of Grand National entrants having one of their last runs before the big race in April.

Tear up your Ante-Post tickets?

However, anyone holding an ante -post voucher for most of the horses sighted at the weekend must be wishing they could have a refund as the displays of horses to the front of the betting such as the likes of Point Barrow, Bewleys Berry, Butler’s Cabin and Preacher Boy were disappointing to say the least.

I realise for some of these horses its all about Aintree and everything else is irrelevant but can we really accept poor performances and still feel positive about our long range selections?

More negatives than positives at Haydock

Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry ran in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock, a race that was littered with possible runners in the big race at Aintree. Of those likely to run perhaps only D’Argent has run an encouraging race with the other entrants either not endorsing their claims (Captain Corelli, Irish Raptor) or running so badly that this must be seen as a negative (Idle Talk, Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry).

Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry were, in my opinion, particularly disappointing. Point Barrow has been given a tender start to the season in an attempt to reduce his handicap mark and he appeared to make suggestions of returning to his best form when finishing fourth at Gowran Park in January. With the handicap mark secured it seems odd to come over to England for a big race if the idea is just for a blow out and he appeared to be travelling well for much of the race only to run out of steam in the last third of the race. This must be a big worry for his Aintree supporters.

Bewleys Berry was only having his second run of the season and has run poorly at Haydock before so perhaps his supporters can take some heart from that, especially as he went on to run well in the National after a poor run in this race last year. Nevertheless, I don’t like to see horses running THAT badly before a big race and I would have to think very carefully before parting with any cash on these (or any of the other poor performers) prior to the National.

Butler’s Cabin still to hit form

One other horse’s performance struck me as noteworthy over the weekend – Butler’s Cabin just doesn’t appear to be the same horse as last year at the moment. I realise the track may not have suited him at Wincanton but he was being pushed and shoved from a very long way out and I just wonder if he has lost some of his enthusiasm. He may just need a bit of sun on his back to find his form but I couldn’t touch him for the National in his current form.

Current Form - What is your view?

It made me consider the relevance of current form with a view to winning the National? How important is it to you that your selection has some good recent form prior to running in the big race? Or do you prefer a softly, softly approach knowing that the form is being saved for the big day?

I’ll be looking at how the last 10 winner’s recent form affected their chances and what sort of break they had before their win at Aintree to see if we can glean any info from this viewpoint next week but in the meantime let me know how you feel about current form and how much it affects your selections for the Grand National.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 4 Comments »

Thanks to all of you who have contributed to the GN Weights thread and suggested ideas as to how we can cut the runners down.

Now that there are a few of us on the site I thought it would be nice to try and work together to see if we can form a small field from which the 2008 GN Winner should come from.

I’ll kick off with some pretty safe trends and then if we agree on some more we can narrow it down further.

On the main Grand National Guide Trends Page it shows that each of the last ten winners had these stats in common and if you look back further you will see that many more winners had the same common stats.

8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
At this stage we dont know the last 40 runners of course but my opinion is that those below 10st 5lb might struggle to get in the race. I certainly wouldnt want to be backing any below 10st 5lb right now anyway… so if we agree then we will call that the cut off point?

Ok the above basic trends narrow down the 150 entries to just 29. NB Ive included a couple on 9 runs as they are due to have prep runs

So I make the 29…
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,

Have I missed any out which you wouldnt want to exclude?

What next?

Ive heard shouts for experience over the GN fences (but just 6 of last winners 10 meet that criteria)

Exclude all french breds? (are you telling me that L’Ami and Kelami dont stay?)

Several recent winners have won or finished closed in another “national” (is that stat strong enough?)

Any others?

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 563 Comments »