Grand National 2008: The Result

1st – Comply Or Die 7/1JF
2nd – King Johns Castle 20/1
3rd – Snowy Morning 16/1
4th – Slim Pickings 10/1

Well done to all those who picked the winner (and placed horses).

Loads of tips for the winner throughout this blog – good luck to you all!

COMPLY OR DIE

Any concerns about the closeness of his win in the Eider Chase were dismissed in no uncertain term and the trends followers are in heaven as David Pipe’s chaser ticked nearly all the boxes required of a potential winner.
In the race itself he travelled and jumped well and when faced with a battle after the last his superior stamina proved decisive.
A textbook performance and every chance he can come back and defend his title.

KING JOHNS CASTLE

Plenty of doubts about his stamina were seemingly unfounded as he has run a cracker in only finding the Pipe horse too good. Held up way off the pace in Carberry style, he worked his way into the race and looked to be going as well as the winner going into the final stages of the race.
Possibility he could come back next year with more experience of longer distances and be an even bigger threat.

SNOWY MORNING

Looked to be going as well as any turning for home and jumping concerns were unfounded as this young horse performed with great credit. Due to go up in the weights and it may just be that this was his beat chance of success.

SLIM PICKINGS

Great waiting ride from Barry Geraghty trying to eek out every ounce of stamina from Slim Pickings but unfortunately it wasn’t quite enough for the second year running.

Hard Luck Stories and Disappointments

Tony McCoy won’t want a picture of Bechers Brook on his wall when he retires as he endured yet another fall at the famous old fence when looking to be going well on Butler’s Cabin.

Ante-Post punters that took advantage of the 25/1 and less about Cloudy Lane never really looked likely to collect and it seemed a combination of stamina limitations and a first look at the fences that were the downfall of the McCain horse.

The day of the race plunge on Vodka Bleu was hard to fathom and the winning rider’s rejected choice of ride never looked happy and Murphy must have breathed a sigh of relief that he didn’t follow his heart and go with Vodka Bleu.

We will analyse the race at length later on in the week but give us your initial thoughts here.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 27 Comments »

Trying to find the winner of the Grand National is tricky enough but trying to forecast the first, second and third? Come on, you must be joking?

No, not at all. I genuinely believe that exactas and trifectas are a great way to try and have a big win from a relatively small stake.

More and more often, through whatever system you might use, big handicap races can be narrowed down to a short list of five or six horses that you have to make your final selection from. This gives you a perfect platform from which to perm your exactas and trifectas.

How Much Can You Win?

In the last five years the Exacta and Trifecta have returned the following amounts:

2007
Exacta 667.60
Trifecta 18020.60

2006
Exacta 96.90
Trifecta 401.30

2005
Exacta 612.70
Trifecta 44338.60

2004
Exacta 124.50
Trifecta 18711.60

2003
Exacta 533.90
Trifecta 27120.20

Even the lowest of these would be a nice return and the prospect of a large payment should you strike it lucky and get the 1-2-3 is very appealing.

How Much Does It Cost?

A combination of 4, 5, or 6 horses would be as follows:

4 horses
Exactas = 12 bets
Trifectas = 24 bets
5 horses
Exactas = 20 bets
Trifectas = 60 bets
6 horses
Exactas = 30 bets
Trifectas = 120 bets

Why not perm up your main selections and put in a big price outsider in the hope of boosting your winnings? I tried this bet last year and and came painfully close with Mckelvey, Slim Pickings and Philson Run. To say Silver Birch is not my favourite horse would be an understatement!

If you are unsure of who to go for why not try a combination of the main fancies from our selections thread. Most of the stats men and shrewd judges on this blog have been giving their opinions and I hope they won’t mind if I gather together what I think are the three most popular selections and the most popular outsider and give them as a combination exacta and trifecta:

Comply Or Die
D’Argent
Point Barrow
Black Apalachi (Close between this one and Naunton Brook, Backbeat, Baily Breeze so take your pick)

Try a 12 x 1 point Exacta and 24 x 0.2 point Trifecta (i.e. it will cost you £16.80 if you deal in £1 points!). Place the bet with Tote bookmakers.

Good Luck To All

Good luck to everyone today, thanks for all your contributions and lets hope all the horses and jockeys come back safe and sound. Make sure you stick around though as we will continuing the blog throughout the year working towards the Grand National in 2009!

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 7 Comments »

The time has nearly come to stop studying and sit back and watch the great race. But who are your Grand National Tips for 2008?

We’ve had dozens of selections on various other threads but lets bring them all together here on one page for easy reference. Let us all know who you have backed and a short reason as to why you have parted with your cash on these particular individuals.

No doubt D’Argent, Comply Or Die, Cloudy Lane and Point Barrow will be popular but are there any others that have taken your fancy?

I’ll get the ball rolling with where the admin 10p each way’s have gone:

Point Barrow

My main selection and has been for some time and (as outlined elsewhere) confidence is dwindling after his last couple of runs. Nevertheless, I’m hopeful that he will perform better than last year!

Joes Edge

This is a recent selection based on a feeling that the ground might get quite quick and that there have been excuses for his two poor performances in 06 and 07. I was attracted by a biggish price on the exchanges and the fact that I can’t fancy any of the of the main market hopefuls at the available prices. Also, Ferdy Murphy is becoming something of a genius with his big race chasers and I want him in the plus column in these races rather than the other way round.

Due to the rather annoying non-attendance of Joe’s Edge the Admin second best will now be Mon Mome. I know he is French bred etc but I don’t buy into this theory that French breds don’t stay so as he has decent form from the Welsh National and the stable is also in flying form then I think he has plenty going for him at under 11 stone. The young jockey is a slight worry but Tom O’Brien nearly won last year on his first ride in the National so it should be possible.

Backbeat, Joaaci, Baily Breeze

I like to have a few each-ways on big price outsiders that will cover the main bets if they squeak a place. I think these three have the potential to run well at big odds and if any of them win I doubt there will be much in the way of after race analysis from me! (only joking Boss!).

Backbeat jumps well and could love the experience, Joaaci has been mentioned as a National horse for a couple of years, although he could still be a bit young and Baily Breeze is a horse I’ve liked for ages and could have reserves of stamina not yet shown on the racecourse.

Good luck to all those having a bet but please let us all know what you are backing so we can congratulate and commiserate on here late on Saturday afternoon.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 32 Comments »

As we enter the final week of betting on the great race one thing punters must be aware of is the Grand National Odds.

Look for the value and don’t take SP on the day!

The five day declarations will be available on the 31st March and from that point onwards the odds of fancied runners will start reducing dramitically.So whilst there is a danger in taking prices now (see the painful stories re Royal Auclair on other threads) there are a number of bookies offering non-runner no bet at this stage and most runners have been confirmed as likely or doubtful by their connections.

Perhaps it is a risk but horses such as D’Argent, Patsy Hall and L’Ami all potentially could receive a lot of support between now and next Saturday and it certainly won’t pay in leaving backing your selection until the day. Shop around with some of the major firms and make sure you get the value and not the shortened starting price.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 2 Comments »

Grand National 2008 

It was reported today by Clerk Of The Course, Andrew Tulloch, that going on both courses at Aintree was now ‘on the easy side of good’.

More rain is expected on Friday and Saturday but Tulloch was reportedly very happy with the state of the course.

Are we looking at the possibility of a soft ground Grand National? How would this affect your selections? Will you be praying for more rain or hoping the sun comes out?

Are there any budding Michael Fish’s out there who can give us an insight into what to expect in the next week or so?

Let’s us have all your Grand National ground and weather related comments on this page please.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 3 Comments »

Earlier in the week we looked at the Grand National Form of Comply Or Die. Today it is the turn of former Irish National winner, Point Barrow.

Point Barrow

Firstly, I must state a bias here. I have backed Point Barrow but I’m very worried about my bet.
I like to try and be open minded about horses who have yet to prove their stamina but feel much happier about parting with cash when the horse in question has proved they can stay at least 3½ miles and preferably further. So, Point Barrow seemed ideal.
I also particularly like the Irish National as a trial for the Aintree version. Wins for Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde as well as a big run from the 2001 Irish National winner David’s Lad in Bindaree’s year and of course Papillon also finished runner up to Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse in 1998. So, it appears that Fairyhouse’s stamina based test, aligned to its very stiff fences, make it a great prep race for Aintree itself.
Consequently, Point Barrow looked taylor-made to me when winning the Irish race in 2006. A win in the Pierse Chase in early 2007 further increased my confidence but we all know that things haven’t quite worked out since then.
I was prepared to forgive the first fence fall in last year’s National as just over exuberance and decided to back him again for this year’s big race after a very encouraging run at Gowran Park in January 08. The comment in the Racing Post the next day ‘kept on without threatening’ and this was just the kind of thing I wanted to see. It appeared that a softly softly approach was being taken. Excellent.
However, the next two runs have worried me enormously. It can be argued that the season is being geared completely to Aintree so the outcome of prep races could be misleading but the way he went from cruising to struggling at Haydock was, for me, very worrying. Also, the suggestion that he gurgled after Down Royal brings into question if he may have a slight wind problem? If that is the case it has to be very doubtful he will win a Grand National.

Topspeed and Blinkers

I’m less concerned about some of the other potential negatives brought up on other threads such as the low Topspeed figure and blinkers situation.
Topspeed is a good indication of class but this horse is an Irish National and Pierse Chase winner so I wouldn’t have thought there would be too many worries on that score. Blinkers? Yes, could be a concern as there does seem a smaller percentage of National winners than in normal races with headgear but I’m not sure it would be a strong enough argument for me NOT to back something I fancy. If I believe something is the most likely winner I’m not going to not back it because of a trend, much as I like using them. Form analysis first, trends as a back up – not the other way round? Otherwise horses like Katchit, Captain Cee Bee, Inglis Drever, Albertas Run etc etc would never have won at Cheltenham? Obviously I didn’t back all of those but I did fancy Katchit and everyone kept telling me a five year old wasn’t going to win a Champion Hurdle – it would have hurt me a lot more not to have backed my judgement and watched it win than back a loser. Something to debate on another thread maybe??!!

A much bigger concern for me than the blinkers issue with Point Barrow is if he is 100% likely to give his true running at Aintree. If he does then I think he is the one to beat but if there is any question mark about his breathing then I doubt he will be involved in the finish.

Are you a Point Barrow fan? Any fancy prices been availed of Pat Hughes’ chaser? Anyone read anything I might have missed about the horse’s breathing?

Give us your thoughts on this thread on all things Point Barrow related.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 8 Comments »

Punters the length of the country will be scanning the Grand National Odds for the likely winner and they will be using a wide range methods to come up with their selection.

This blog has hopefully helped to bring together some informed opinion for the form students but it could also, hopefully, be the first port of call for a novice or fun punter looking for that first horseracing adrenalin rush that the Grand National is famous for.

Each-way thieves?

Many will like the look of an each-way bet on an outsider. But which one?

Since 2000 (apart from on one occasion) at least one horse has won or been placed at odds of 33/1 or bigger. In light of this, perhaps it would be a good idea if some of the regulars from the blog could give an idea of an outsider (33/1 or bigger please) likely to offer a good run at big price odds.

I’ll get the ball rolling with a couple at larger odds that I like the look of and hopefully we can get a shortlist of outsiders that value seekers and first time punters alike can refer to.

BACKBEAT

I remember being impressed by this horse when he finished second in a handicap at Huntingdon in October 2005, giving weight to subsequent Scottish National winner Run For Paddy. His jumping and tenacity really impressed me that day and although, as with any flamboyant jumper, there can be a risk of mistakes, when he gets it right he really is a joy to watch. A series of injuries meant it was two and half years before Backbeat was able to show his true form again when putting in another great display to see off course specialist Erics Charm at Sandown in January of this year.
I know it would be easy to pick holes in his form but at a big price he has stamina in his pedigree (out of a Deep Run mare), wins on good and good to soft ground and is an exuberant jumper who likes to be up with the pace – I think punters could get an exciting run for their money with Backbeat. He is currently available at 50/1 with Blue Square.

JOAACI

I’m a bit surprised that this horse has seemingly been overlooked but that could be due to the connections having the more obviously fanciable Comply Or Die and Over The Creek in the National but if this horse is left in I think he could surprise a few people.

He had a meteroric rise up the weights as a five year old after arriving at the Pipe yard fresh from winning a point to point in Ireland. He then rocketed up the ratings from 112 to 152 in less than a year and has spent the last couple of seasons paying for his successes.
However, he has winning form from 2006 and placed form on two separate occasions in 2007 off a mark of 143 and he is asked to race from that mark here in the National. Martin Pipe was quoted in 2006 as saying that ‘he might make a National horse one day, he is still only a baby’.
Undoubtedly, he hasn’t lived up to his initial hype and his stamina is in question as is his attitude when faced with a test such as this but given he has form at this mark (albeit at a much lower level) he looks worth including in my outsiders portfolio at 66/1 with with William Hill.

More obvious ‘outsiders’ such as Kelami, DArgent and Naunton Brook have been mentioned positively on other threads – give us the reasoning behind why we should be investing on them instead.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 30 Comments »

Grand National Runners - Did the Irish National come too close to Aintree for these horses?

Alexander Taipan, Royal County Star, Homer Wells and Cool Running

All of the above could potentially make the cut for the Grand National but how likely are they to turn up at Aintree after running at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f just twelve days before the Grand National? How did they run at Fairyhouse? Have any of them enhanced their Aintree chances if they do make the journey?

Alexander Taipan

Suffered a horrific fall midway through the race - . (Unfortunately Alexander Taipan’s injuries were fatal  - commiserations to all concerned - Admin)

Royal County Star

The ante-post gamble of the race travelled like the winner for nearly the whole way but found very little over the last two fences. This must seriously bring into question his stamina at extreme distances, although he could improve for really good or good to firm ground. Even so, hard to see him as an Aintree National winner after this performance.

Homer Wells

Was beaten a long way from home and this was the latest in a serious of disappointing efforts. Very difficult to see how connections would want to take in Aintree on the back of such a dismal display.

Cool Running

Although he was Pulled Up, did not run that badly given he has been off the track since October and probably needed this race. Could be the horse most likely to turn up at Aintree (if he makes the cut at 10-6) and connections will be hoping for good or good to firm going.

The other Grand National entries such as Flintoff and Newbay Prop who ran here are unlikely to make the cut for the big race.

One other likely Grand National runner today when Hi Cloy finished runner-up in a 3 mile Hurdle . Connections will have been well satisfied with that but he has a mountain to climb at Aintree under his massive burden of 11 stone 12 lbs.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 1 Comment »

Between now and the day of the big race we will try and analyse the Grand National Form chance of some of the major players in greater depth.

Comply Or Die.

I can fully understand the attractiveness of Comply Or Die for the National at some of the fancier prices that some of the shrewdies on our forum have availed themselves of but I’m not sure that 12 or 14/1 makes much appeal, even for a horse with confirmed stamina.

Stamina he undoubtedly has but there must be some question marks about the chances of him consistently repeating his positive performances over a longer trip. The facts show five attempts at 28 furlongs or further and form figures of: P, 6th, P, P, 1st

Undoubtedly there were excuses for the poor runs but inconsistency must be a worry.

Eider Chase

According the stats that I can find going back to 1989 no winner of the Eider Chase has gone on to contend the Grand National in that same season. However, eight placed horses from the Newcastle marathon have gone on to try their luck at Aintree in the same year and have finished as follows: 6th, 9th, UR, 7th, 3rd, 5th, PU, PU.

Only two of the Eider placed horses were under 20/1 when lining up in the Grand National and both got round finishing 9th and 3rd respectively. This could indicate that whilst Eider horses undoubtedly have the stamina required for the Grand National perhaps the February date of the Newcastle race does not leave enough time for horses to fully get over the exertions of a four mile race and then to head to Aintree with a winning chance?

These exertions may be particularly relevant in the case of Comply Or Die. Off for nearly two years before returning to the course in October 2007, he has had a couple of hard races since December with the defeat behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock and the victory in the Eider. I am always concerned about just how fragile a horse with a history of injury problems may be in the future? Granted, one who can win so impressively over four miles with nearly twelve stone on his back gives every indication of being 100% recovered but his ability to recover quickly from a hard race MAY be more under question.

I can also not forget that Timmy Murphy, when interviewed on tv after the Eider, commented something along the lines that ‘it did not ride like a great race’ – so perhaps whilst it was an impressive weight carrying performance there might not have been a great strength in depth to the race?

The positive angle to Comply Or Die is that he could be a much better horse than he is currently handicapped. His two narrow defeats by Trabolgan in the Sun Alliance Chase and Hennessy might suggest a horse who should have over 11 stone on his back in the National. In a novice chase in Oct 04 he received 5lb from Ollie Magern and got beat 2 and half lengths. If both turn up in the National, Comply Or Die will receive 1st 2lb from the Twiston-Davies horse. This suggests that the Pipe horse still has some scope to move up the handicap.
At 25/1 or bigger Comply Or Die looks a great addition to your Ante-Post National bets. However, for me, the value has now evaporated and he should be given the swerve, especially if the price continues to contract.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 11 Comments »

Grand National Runners: Update

Keith Reveley’s nine year old chaser, Ungaro, is unlikely to take his place in the Aintree Grand National, it was reported today.

The Robert Ogden owned former winner of the Feltham Novice Chase is thought more likely to run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown next month rather than take up his entry at Liverpool.

Reveley was reported as saying: “I haven’t had it confirmed yet, but as far as I know it is the Sandown race we are heading for.”

Ungaro is currently a best priced 40/1 with Skybet for the Grand National

Posted in Grand National 2008 | No Comments »