The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury has proved a great starting point to many Grand National entrants’ seasons and 2008 looks potentially no different.

 Our Hennessy page on the main Grand National Guide site deals with how runners in this race have fared and is a good starting point if you think your Hennessy fancy might go on to take part in the grand National:

 http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/hennessey-form.php

But what of the Hennessy itself? Who should we be looking to back?

The race is traditionally a haven for up and coming, second-season chasers and, in my opinion, the horses with less miles on the board are the ones to focus on. I’m using the following criteria to narrow the field down:

Less than eleven races over fences

Placed first or second or last start

This fairly short check list eliminates a large number of the runners and leaves us with:

Air Force One

My own preference from the runners highlighted is for Island Flyer as I was very impressed with his effort in a decent Hennessy trial, the Badger Ales at Wincanton.

I’m slightly concerned about Big Bucks’ jumping. Too often the comments “blundered” seem to crop up in his analysis and I’d rather go with the horse from the in form Tom George yard that will apparently be up and around the pace of the race.

I’m tempted by Character Building and I think he will run a big race but I just can’t see him being good enough to win a race like this. I would think he will do his National chance no harm with a prominent run though. Air Force One is not a horse I have ever really taken to, despite his admirable record and I think Dear Villez had his big race last time out.

Of the others eliminated by the stats, I believe it very possible that Albertas Run could bounce back to form and I have sneaking feeling about My Will at a huge price, even though his trainer is very negative about his handicap mark.

So, that’s it for now and I am signing off for a bit as I am away on leave so good luck at Newbury and hope your National ante post vouchers look a bit more attractive after the big race.

Keep posting your thoughts on the Hennessy and let everyone know how you think the race will effect the Grand National and thanks to Daniel and Jimmy Boy for their Hennessy analysis on the Grand Sefton thread. Good work lads!

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 57 Comments »

In the last five years the Grand Sefton has been won by horses with Official Ratings between 104 and 125 and (I am guessing here) it looks as if the conditions of the race have been changed as the highest rated horse in those five years ran off 130 and tomorrow Turpin Green runs off a mark of 158 – so we are now looking at quite a different type of race.
Consequently in those previous five years Forest Gunner has been the only horse of note to run in the Grand Sefton and then go on to make an impact in the Grand National – that may all now change that better horses are running in this race and the Grand Sefton could become much more significant.

Grand Sefton Entries: The Favourites

Of the sixteen entered Palarshan and Bill’s Echo both ran on Saturday so surely must be doubtful starters.
From the early betting that has been released it appears that Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies have the strongest hands in this race as well with Gwanako and The Hollow Bottom.
Gwanako won the Topham over course and distance in April and although ten pounds higher than that win this doesn’t look an overly competitive race and he did win first time out in a hurdle race last year. It was a great performance to win the Topham as a five year old and his claims look very strong here again today.
The Hollow Bottom is on a hat-trick at Aintree, although he is yet to try out the National fences. He does, however, face the starter 28lbs higher than when winning the first race of this sequence and he will do well to overcome such a hefty rise in the weights for winning two 9k handicaps.

Grand Sefton Entries: Other Fancied Runners
Of the others I’d have reservations about the ground for Regal Heights (needs it very soft), distance about Ponmeoath (would seem to need 3 miles) and jumping about Iron Man (failed to complete in three attempts at the course).
An outsider who may receive support is Bestofthebrownies. Howard Johnson guided Theatre Knight to placings in this race in 2006 and 2007 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bestofthebrownies step up on all previous form and perform well even from so far out of the handicap.

Nevertheless, Gwanako looks head and shoulders above this field.

Do you agree? Or do you have a strong fancy for one of the other runners? What about Endless Power or Brooklyn Brownie? Tell us who you are going to back.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 9 Comments »

The Becher Chase is obviously one of the most significant trials for the Grand National as it is run over 3m 2f at Aintree and, most importantly, over the National fences.

Previous Winners
Three Grand National winners have won this race: Earth Summit, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch, although none have won it in the season that they actually won the National.

Trends For Becher Chase
We can debate the effect this race will have on the Grand National after the race but what might actually win the Becher Chase? Are there any significant trends we can look at here?

Follow The Champion Trainer?
The most obvious thing from looking at the list of previous winners is that Paul Nicholls has won the race three times in the last four years and the only blip in that period was when Garvivonnian held off a determined late challenge from the Nicholls trained Le Duc by ¾ of a length. So it seems that the Champion Trainer has far more success in this race than in the main race over the National fences and with Mr Pointment and Gungadu entered this year he looks to have a strong hand yet again.

Age and Official Ratings Don’t Help Much
The usual areas of focus for narrowing contenders doesn’t offer much help here as there have been a wide variety of winners from different age and weight ranges. Official ratings have stretched from Ardent Scout at 117 to Earth Summit at 157 so that too is unlikely to help too much.

No doubt some will point to the fact that there has just been just one winner over the age of ten in the last ten years and so we might be pretty safe in leaving out the two runners aged twelve. However on closer inspection there have been 19 runners over ten years old in the last five years and four of those made the frame so disregarding the likes of Philson Run just on age grounds may not have that much creedance.

Jumping and a prominent style of running look the keys
I prefer the look of two stats relating to style of running and jumping ability.

I believe it is crucial to be up in the firing line for this race as the race tends to develop from the front and the majority of hold up horses find it difficult to get involved. Most of the last ten winners all have comments such as “chasing leaders” “led/disputed lead” “always prominent” “soon handy” and only Clan Royal and Amberleigh House have any mention of being “held up” and even Clan Royal was in front by the 9th fence. So, perhaps we should be on the lookout for horses who look more likely to race prominently and we should think twice about backing anything that appears to need holding up.

The second thing to consider is jumping ability. Perhaps this is stating the obvious over the National fences but none of the last ten winners of this race had fell or unseated more than twice at the point in their careers when they ran in this race (and most were 0 or 1 falls/unseats)

So applying the above principals we can (if we wish!) take out the following:

Held Up – Himalayan Trail
Too Many Falls/UR – Idle Talk
Too Many Falls/UR – Irish Raptor (I know he has a good record here but these are the stats)
Too Many Falls/UR – Oulart
Held Up – A New Story (not in last few, but was on last try in this race)
Held Up – Out The Black
Held Up – Philson Run (I know he has been placed round here but change of stables puts me off)
Too Many Falls/UR – Ivoire De Beaulieu (also the stable is right out of form – a worry for Noir Et Vert fans)

This cuts the field in half and with the previous very questionable form of Irish runners in the race (Only Garvivonnian being successful) you could take it further and leave the Irish raiders out as well but that looks a risky choice to me.

Early Feeling
As I mentioned earlier in the week I like the look of Southern Vic but he seems to be ridden with restraint in some of his races and that would be a major turn off if he was ridden like that in this race. Also, official ground of Good To Soft may not provide quite enough of a stamina test but now the runners are in and, I hope, we can narrow the field, its back to the form book!

Let us know your views and what your fancies are for this race and I will be adding more info tomorrow.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 18 Comments »

Sunday 23rd November sees the first appearance in the 08/09 season of the Grand National fences when those of us who love this sort of thing will be glued to the Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton and pressing record on the video!

I’ll be doing some close analysis of each of these races from Thursday onwards but this thread will allow us to discuss the possible runners etc before getting stuck into the individual trends of each race etc and their relevance (or not) to the National itself.

So…

Grand Sefton

The shorter of the two races and a cracking race in prospect if some of the following actually turn up:

Natal

Turpin Green

Gwanako

Regal Heights

Ponmeoath

Palarshan

Private Be

I Hear Thunder

and plenty of other potential top class runners.

I will need to study the race at some length but Regal Heights is immediately interesting but I’m just not sure about his jumping - any immediate thoughts from you guys?

Becher Chase

The longer race of the two is a reallly mouth watering propsect. Some of the proposed runners include:

Gungadu

Monkerhostin

Mr Pointment

Faasel

Hear The Echo

Always Waining

Parsons Legacy

Southern Vic

Himlayan Trail

Idle Talk

Irish Raptor

Philson Run

It would be like a mini National if that lot lined up and I’m very aware that ground is already listed as “SOFT” so horses like Parsons Legacy might be a doubt.

The one that jumps off the page at me is Southern Vic. I always really liked this horse and he was very highly thought of by the Walsh yard and they obviously know what is required round Aintree. He needs soft ground so if he were to travel over I would definitely be paying very close attention.

Plenty to get stuck into over the next few days - Lets get to work!

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 8 Comments »

2008 Grand National winner Comply Or Die returned to the track today in the Servo Computers Services Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham but never really looked like getting competitive and was pulled up after the sixteenth fence.

Excuses For Poor Performance?

Obviously connections will be much more concerned about getting the horse back to Aintree to defend his title but this has to be seen as as a disappointing return. Excuses will no doubt be given concerning the soft ground, extra weight, lack of blinkers and the poor form of the stable but Comply Or Die was one of the first horses beaten.

Tear Up Your Ante-Post Bet For 2009?

Anyone who has taken a price about David Pipe’s chaser becoming the first horse since Red Rum to win back to back Grand Nationals would struggle to glean too many positives from this comeback but it must be remembered that once a horse has won the National their season tends to be completely geared to Aintree and all other races seem to just become stepping stones.

Bookmakers seemed unfazed by Comply Or Die’s performance and mostly left the 2008 Grand National winner unmoved in the market although Bet365 pushed the David Johnson owned gelding out to 20/1 from 16/1.

Your Views?

What did you think of Comply Or Die’s performance today? Was it disappointing or was it the first of a few average runs that will be needed to try and drop some of the extra fifteen pounds handicapped for winning last year’s race?

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 6 Comments »

2008 Grand National Runner-up King Johns Castle has been ruled out of the 2009 race due to a tendon injury.

Trainer Arthur Moore reported today that the gelding would be out for the season but that hopefully he would come back into training for the following year.

Has this upset many early ante-post bets for Grand National Guide readers? Will Tony McCoy be cursing as he may well have switched to this horse in his search for that illusive Grand National winner?

Can King Johns Castle come back to challenge for Aintree honours again after an injury like this?

Let us know what you think?  

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 4 Comments »