Hennessy Gold Cup 2008: Analysis
November 28th, 2008The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury has proved a great starting point to many Grand National entrants’ seasons and 2008 looks potentially no different.
Our Hennessy page on the main Grand National Guide site deals with how runners in this race have fared and is a good starting point if you think your Hennessy fancy might go on to take part in the grand National:
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/hennessey-form.php
But what of the Hennessy itself? Who should we be looking to back?
The race is traditionally a haven for up and coming, second-season chasers and, in my opinion, the horses with less miles on the board are the ones to focus on. I’m using the following criteria to narrow the field down:
Less than eleven races over fences
Aged under 10 years old
Placed first or second or last start
This fairly short check list eliminates a large number of the runners and leaves us with:
Air Force One
Big Bucks
Dear Villez
Character Building
Island Flyer
My own preference from the runners highlighted is for Island Flyer as I was very impressed with his effort in a decent Hennessy trial, the Badger Ales at Wincanton.
I’m slightly concerned about Big Bucks’ jumping. Too often the comments “blundered” seem to crop up in his analysis and I’d rather go with the horse from the in form Tom George yard that will apparently be up and around the pace of the race.
I’m tempted by Character Building and I think he will run a big race but I just can’t see him being good enough to win a race like this. I would think he will do his National chance no harm with a prominent run though. Air Force One is not a horse I have ever really taken to, despite his admirable record and I think Dear Villez had his big race last time out.
Of the others eliminated by the stats, I believe it very possible that Albertas Run could bounce back to form and I have sneaking feeling about My Will at a huge price, even though his trainer is very negative about his handicap mark.
So, that’s it for now and I am signing off for a bit as I am away on leave so good luck at Newbury and hope your National ante post vouchers look a bit more attractive after the big race.
Keep posting your thoughts on the Hennessy and let everyone know how you think the race will effect the Grand National and thanks to Daniel and Jimmy Boy for their Hennessy analysis on the Grand Sefton thread. Good work lads!
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