Will Denman try his luck in the 2009 Grand National? Or will connections make us wait until 2010 to see the great horse jump the Aintree fences? Or is it all just pie in the sky and sanity will take over and the currently undefeated chasing star will be wrapped in cotton wool and focused on winning umpteen Gold Cups?

No Double For Oats

The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to try his luck in the Grand National was Kim Bailey’s Master Oats. The 1995 Gold Cup winner had two attempts at the Grand National, the first just over three weeks after his success at Cheltenham when he finished 16 lengths 7th to Royal Athlete and then two years later when he finished fifth behind Lord Gyllene. On both occasions he ran off a mark of 173. Denman currently sits on a mark of 182. Does this suggest winning a Grand National is too big a task for Denman or for any horse who has to give so much weight away?

Perhaps it was the fact that Master Oats never had ideal conditions for his attempts at the Grand National seeing as he needed soft ground to be seen at his best and both his Aintree races were on good ground. Most recent top weights in the National have had handicap marks in the mid to high 150s so the difference between them and Denman is quite staggering.

Great Performance From Suny Bay

The only other horse in recent times to race in the Grand National with a mark of 170 or over is Suny Bay who finished a gallant second in 1998. This really is a fine effort considering Charlie Brooks’ grey was trying to give 23lb to a Welsh and Scottish National winner in Earth Summit. So high class weight carrying performances are not out of the question in the Grand National!
Suny Bay’s performance also highlights that only six other horses were in the handicap proper that year out of a thirty-seven runner field. Using this as a guide and imagining that Denman’s handicap mark (or the mark used for the National) stays fairly consistent then if he were to take part in the National nearly all of his opponents would be out of the handicap! If that were the case he must therefore be meeting them on better terms than he should be and theoretically his chances of success must improve. I appreciate he will be carrying tons of weight more than some other potentially decent horses but I would suggest that, with respect to the likes of Master Oats and Suny Bay, its been a long time since we’ve seen a horse as good as him in the National.

Denman: The New Crisp?

I’m a big fan of Crisp and his attempt to give weight to Red Rum in 1973 and Denman’s bold, attacking style reminds me of that great horse and much as I would normally shy away from horses with big weights in the National I think if Denman does turn up at Aintree then the race needs to be looked at with a completely different approach. The fact that this horse has won one Hennessy off top weight (admittedly not the best Hennessy ever) but also that his connections are talking about going back to Newbury to start his 08/09 campaign there suggests that they feel that they have a horse capable of consistently winning quality handicaps with top weight as well as the top class conditions races. Very few horses have been campaigned in this very positive way in recent years and perhaps we may yet see this great horse become the first since L’Escargot in 1975 to do the Gold Cup/National double.

What do you think? Can Denman win a Grand National? Will he turn up in 2009 or is 2010 more likely? Should the conditions be changed if it means 90% of the runners end up out of the handicap? Let us know your views on the Gold Cup winner in the Grand National

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 6 Comments »

Grand National 2009

We had a request some time ago to run the rule over the chances of Character Building in our Early Betting series so it seemed a good opportunity to start a new series where we look at one horse in a bit of depth.

Character Building: Facts and Figures

Current BHB rating 138 – this would have equated to a weight of 10-8 in last year’s race so would potentially look pretty likely to get into this year’s race if fit and well.

Currently has run 13 times under rules, registering 3 wins with 7 of those runs coming over fences and 2 of the wins.

Background

Highlights of racing career so far would have to be in defeat when finishing ¾ of a length second to Butler’s Cabin in the 2007 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and a staying on 19l 3rd to Denman in the following season’s Hennessy.

Was well fancied for the 2008 National after the publication of the weights only to be withdrawn due to an injury shortly before the race.

Is sired by Accordion whose three highest rating progeny are all horses who have been successful over the minimum trip: Dato Star, Flagship Uberalles and Accordion Etoile. Granted there is also the likes of Albertas Run, An Accordion and Battlecry well up in the list of high ranking offspring but I just wonder if stamina might not be as guaranteed as first appears as it may just be that his defeat by Butler’s Cabin at Cheltenham was caused by his stamina coming to an end.

Positives and Negatives

The merits or otherwise of the 2007 NH Chase can be debated but I’m not sure it was the strongest race in depth with only three of the ten finishers going on to record a further victory. Hordago went on to win a race at Cheltenham but is very in and out, Butlers Cabin followed up in the Irish National after winning this race but now looks a law unto himself and Garde Champetre has only come to life since going over the Cross Country fences. Perhaps it didn’t take a great performance to finish runner up in this race even if it was at the Cheltenham Festival?

I also have to think that Character Building’s tendency to wander around in the finish must be seen as a negative. There are three earlier comments in his form where drifting or movement in the finish has been reported and whether this was a sign of a nagging injury or dislike for getting involved in a battle then it would be more than enough to put me off considering the length of the run in at Aintree. It could be that his enforced lay off may have ironed out his injury and his problems in the finish may not now be an issue, or that it was just inexperience, but I wouldn’t want to take that chance. Also, the trainer of the horse was not too pleased at the horse being raised 3lbs for finishing 3rd at Newbury in what he suggested was a race, the winner apart, that had not worked out too well.

Nor, as I have mentioned before, would I want to part with cash on a horse who has been off injured for nearly a year. Again, I appreciate Comply Or Die has managed it but if you keep backing horses who have been off injured for a lengthy period I believe you will end up losing money.

On the plus side for the horse is that he is trained by a very shrewd man in John Quinn. Running a near 20% strike rate in the last five years with his NH horses and showing a nice profit overall with his chasers, this trainer will ensure the horse has a good chance if getting to the race but there would be a few too many question marks to make him a play for me at the available odds.

Do you agree or disagree? Is Character Building your idea of the winner of the 2009 Grand National? What other horse would you like us to take a close look at on these pages?

Character Building is currently a 33/1 chance with SkyBet.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 19 Comments »