Summer National at Uttoxeter 2008
June 28th, 2008The Summer National at Uttoxeter is an oasis for jumps fans in a sea of flat racing and, more importantly for us, it is an early indication of some of the horses that might end up at Aintree if not this year then certainly at some point in the future.
Previous winners in the Grand National
Previous winners of the Summer National Mckelvey, Take The Stand and Jurancon have all been well fancied for the Grand National itself predominantly as they had proved their stamina in this race. As we all know Mckelvey ran a huge race in 2007 with injury possibly preventing him for getting up to beat Silver Birch.
So, let’s look at the previous winners at Uttoxeter:
2000 Berlin Blue OR110 7-10-5 11/2 13 ran 26k - value of race
2002 Stormez OR133 5-11-8 11/2 14 ran 32k
2003 Jurancon OR122 6-10-10 9/1 13 ran 35k
2004 Take The Stand OR138 8-11-12 14/1 16 ran 44k
2005 Rheindross OR117 10-10-3 25/1 16 ran 44k
2006 Mckelvey OR130 7-10-10 11/2 15 ran 45k
2007 Kock De La Vesvre OR123 9-10-9 5/1J 11ran 40k
Who will win at Uttoxeter in 2008?
With only seven years to go on we need to be a bit creative with our interpretation of any prospective trends so I will suggest that for various reasons the wins of Berlin Blue and Take The Stand could be left out of the equation when considering the qualities required for the winner in 2008.
The win of Berlin Blue in 2000 was when the race was worth much less than its value today and in the intervening years and is probably not a true reflection of the quality of horse that runs in the race. Take The Stand’s win off 138 and with 11st 12lb was probably a bit of a freak. Given that he ended up running second in the Gold Cup he was entitled to win even with the big weight but as a rule I would be doubtful about big weights in marathon chases. If we do leave these horses out of the equation then the remaining four winners have had an official rating of between 117 and 133.
This only really gets rid of the top four in the weights but with no horse winning older than 10 years old we could also eliminate Philson Run, Chabrimal Minster, Harlov and Take The Stand.
Our Selection
So from an original 16 we have 8 left to consider and out of those the one that interests me the most is Mr Ed. I have long thought that this former good flat horse is capable of winning a decentish handicap over fences but the main requirement for him appears to be good to firm ground and he has received these underfoot conditions very rarely in his career over fences. He has tons of weight in hand on better fancied horses such as Forty Acers and Rackalackey from previous defeats where they have since gone up in the weights and whilst he may appear the least fancied of the Bowen quartet I think he looks a nice each way bet.
Let us know who you fancy and we will come back on after the race and have a look at it from an Aintree perspective as well as discuss where the money went!
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