The Summer National at Uttoxeter is an oasis for jumps fans in a sea of flat racing and, more importantly for us, it is an early indication of some of the horses that might end up at Aintree if not this year then certainly at some point in the future.

Previous winners in the Grand National

Previous winners of the Summer National Mckelvey, Take The Stand and Jurancon have all been well fancied for the Grand National itself predominantly as they had proved their stamina in this race. As we all know Mckelvey ran a huge race in 2007 with injury possibly preventing him for getting up to beat Silver Birch.

So, let’s look at the previous winners at Uttoxeter:

2000 Berlin Blue OR110 7-10-5 11/2 13 ran 26k - value of race

2002 Stormez OR133 5-11-8 11/2 14 ran 32k

2003 Jurancon OR122 6-10-10 9/1 13 ran 35k

2004 Take The Stand OR138 8-11-12 14/1 16 ran 44k

2005 Rheindross OR117 10-10-3 25/1 16 ran 44k

2006 Mckelvey OR130 7-10-10 11/2 15 ran 45k

2007 Kock De La Vesvre OR123 9-10-9 5/1J 11ran 40k

Who will win at Uttoxeter in 2008?

With only seven years to go on we need to be a bit creative with our interpretation of any prospective trends so I will suggest that for various reasons the wins of Berlin Blue and Take The Stand could be left out of the equation when considering the qualities required for the winner in 2008.

The win of Berlin Blue in 2000 was when the race was worth much less than its value today and in the intervening years and is probably not a true reflection of the quality of horse that runs in the race. Take The Stand’s win off 138 and with 11st 12lb was probably a bit of a freak. Given that he ended up running second in the Gold Cup he was entitled to win even with the big weight but as a rule I would be doubtful about big weights in marathon chases. If we do leave these horses out of the equation then the remaining four winners have had an official rating of between 117 and 133.

This only really gets rid of the top four in the weights but with no horse winning older than 10 years old we could also eliminate Philson Run, Chabrimal Minster, Harlov and Take The Stand.

Our Selection

So from an original 16 we have 8 left to consider and out of those the one that interests me the most is Mr Ed. I have long thought that this former good flat horse is capable of winning a decentish handicap over fences but the main requirement for him appears to be good to firm ground and he has received these underfoot conditions very rarely in his career over fences. He has tons of weight in hand on better fancied horses such as Forty Acers and Rackalackey from previous defeats where they have since gone up in the weights and whilst he may appear the least fancied of the Bowen quartet I think he looks a nice each way bet.

Let us know who you fancy and we will come back on after the race and have a look at it from an Aintree perspective as well as discuss where the money went!

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 9 Comments »

In the latest of our looks at the early betting for the 2009 Grand National I thought we’d change the format slightly and rather than work through the remaining horses in the betting, we would highlight a few of the remaining interesting runners or suggestions from other posts.

In one of the earlier posts Pav asks about Hot Weld and Kings Advocate so let’s take a look at those:

Hot Weld: One of the ante post favourites for last years race until ruled out in January with a haematoma on his leg. Trainer Ferdy Murphy reported at the time that the horse would be aimed at the National again in 2009.

Hot Weld certainly ticks all the right boxes for the National having won Cheltenham’s NH Chase, the Irish National and the BetFred Gold Cup but I just have reservations about horses coming back from injury and if they can reach the same level of form after being off for a year or more. Granted there are the exceptions (Comply Or Die for one) but in general I believe it is rare for horses to surpass their form levels after a stopping injury. Added to this is the amount of getting fit that Hot Weld seems to need.  In his last two full seasons of racing he needed three and then four races before showing any worthwhile form and I’m not sure that this trait will improve after an injury. Therefore we are unlikely to get an idea on his retained ability for some time and, as such, I would want to wait and see with Hot Weld and in all probability would give him a miss.

Kings Advocate: Similar comments apply to the Tom Taaffe trained 8 year old Kings Advocate as he hasn’t run since finishing 6th to Butlers Cabin in the 2007 Irish National. A horse of some promise he was sent off favourite that day and he ran well to finish 6 lengths behind the winner. I can’t find anything to say what has been wrong with him but he doesn’t have much experience over fences for a horse to be aimed at a Grand National (6 races over fences) but he does have a nice staying pedigree and if you can get a big price on the exchanges and he is a horse you like then he could spring a surprise. But, I’d want to see him fit and well and back on the track before making a decision.

Finally, one from fairly high up in the betting that has been attracting some interest in the betting, Old Benny.

Old Benny: I can see why this horse would appeal to a lot of people - trained by Alan King, might be ridden by Choc Thornton, a young horse, plenty of stamina and a mark in the low 140s but I have major doubts about his jumping as the race he won at Cheltenham was the first time I’d seen him jump ok in his outings over fences (which haven’t been many). I would think he would have to get more experience over larger obstacles and that would run the risk of increasing his handicap mark to a point where he would have too much weight? What does anyone else think? Do you fancy Old Benny’s chances at Aintree?

Let us know about him or any other horse you would like see discusssed.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 2 Comments »