Here is the second part of the initial look at the early prices for the 2009 Grand National. We’ve already had a quick scout through the following: Denman, Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin, Snowy Morning, Iris De Balme and Hear The Echo.

Next up is:

King John’s Castle. Arthur Moore’s house was considered a doubtful stayer in some quarters as he had mainly contested over much shorter distances during his short career over fences. These doubts were in some ways put to bed by the horse finishing a gallant second to Comply Or Die, giving the winner 2lb. Time may show that to be a very useful performance but I just felt that Paul Carberry coaxed every ounce of stamina from King’s John’s Castle and I doubt that he will be able to get any closer to winning as he will undoubtedly be carrying more weight next year.

Miko De Beauchene will undoubtedly have his supporters. However, I am concerned about his chances on a number of points. Firstly, he had a very, very hard season in 07/08 with gruelling victories at Chepstow and Haydock as well as three other runs and such a hard season may take some recovering from. Secondly, he ran off a mark of 153 in the Scottish National (when pulled up) which would have given him 11st 9lb in this year’s National. Anything like that sort of weight in 2009 would surely be too heavy a burden to carry?

He is also obviously French bred and this is a bone of contention with stats followers given the poor record of French bred horses in the National. I see the poor record of his compatriots but doubt that I would be put off by a lack of stamina in a Welsh National winner. Far more worrying to me would be the amount of weight he would be likely to carry.

Next in the betting in some places is Himalayan Trail. A very interesting potential contender from the Sue Smith yard, much would depend how he shapes in the early part of the season as he is relarively inexperienced for a horse campaigning over marathon distances. A winner of three of his five races to date over fences, including the four mile + Midlands Grand National, Himalayan Trail would need to gain some extra experience for me to be very interested in him but without wrecking his current handicap mark of 141.  If he were to jump well in a couple of decent three mile handicaps in the early part of the season I would defintely have him on my shortlist.

Finally for today is Gwanako. Paul Nicholls’ young chaser ran a fine race to win the Topham in April ‘08 at the tender age of five years old. That win pushes him up to 151 and a six year old winning the National of a mark in the 150’s would require a herculean effort. Also, his stamina seemed to be nearing the end of its tether in the Topham and he would appear to have too much against him at this point.

Do you agree or disagree? Give us your thoughts on the above or any of the horses in the early betting for the 2009 Grand National.

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The dust has settled after the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown and the early market for the 2009 Grand National is starting to take shape with some National favourites and some new names for us all to ponder their suitability for the great race next April.

Over the next few days I’ll have a quick run through the runners in the betting and just outline my initial thoughts on them (plenty of time for trends analysis later on) and why not come back on and just let us all know what your initial feelings are about the prices for the 2009 race?

Denman heads the betting with a number of firms but connections have stated that 2010 is a more likely National target for the Gold Cup winner so it may be wise to exclude him from our early scan of the prices.

Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin and Snowy Morning come next in the betting at 20/1 and, for me, the only one that would have any appeal here would be Snowy Morning. Comply Or Die was a brilliant winner but will be punished severely by the handicapper and he has always been a rather fragile horse so any long term punts would be pretty hazardous. Butler’s Cabin looked to be going well when coming to grief at Bechers second time around but I didn’t like the look of him in some of his runs last year and I fear there may be more than a touch of temperament about him which may get worse. I wouldn’t want to be involved with him ante-post.

Snowy Morning really surprised me in the National as I thought he would struggle to get round. Bar his mistake at the last he performed really well for a young horse and with a programme mapped out for the National he could find the necessary improvement to offset any rise in the weights he may incur. 20/1 isn’t particularly generous but he must have a chance.

Iris De Balme wouldn’t interest me at all. I’m always very suspicious of the likelihood of horses who win from miles out of the handicap maintaining that level of form when they return to their true mark. I’d have to see more from him before I’d make him a serious National candidate.

Hear The Echo won the Irish National well and that race is one I like as a long term indicator for the National itself but I have big doubts about his jumping. He has already hit the deck four times in his eighteen starts over obstacles and that is too many in my book for a potential National winner. That said Fairyhouse is a really hard track to jump round so it may be that this area of his game is improving. I didn’t like his performance in the race before the Irish National when he looked to be travelling well and went out very quickly. He wouldn’t be carrying my money.

So that’s the first half dozen in the betting. Of those the only one of interest to me would be Snowy Morning and I’m not sure I would be tempted by the prices on offer. How about you?

Let us know your thoughts and check back in the next few days when we will be looking at the next six horses in the current betting.

Posted in Grand National 2009 | 3 Comments »