As we enter the final week of betting on the great race one thing punters must be aware of is the Grand National Odds.

Look for the value and don’t take SP on the day!

The five day declarations will be available on the 31st March and from that point onwards the odds of fancied runners will start reducing dramitically.So whilst there is a danger in taking prices now (see the painful stories re Royal Auclair on other threads) there are a number of bookies offering non-runner no bet at this stage and most runners have been confirmed as likely or doubtful by their connections.

Perhaps it is a risk but horses such as D’Argent, Patsy Hall and L’Ami all potentially could receive a lot of support between now and next Saturday and it certainly won’t pay in leaving backing your selection until the day. Shop around with some of the major firms and make sure you get the value and not the shortened starting price.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 2 Comments »

Whilst most of us on this blog have been pouring over the Grand National form the Aintree 2008 Festival isn’t just about one race. The entries for Thursday and Friday are out now and there is the prospect of some crackerjack races next week. Here are just a few of the Cheltenham Festival winners and other top class horses that are entered:

Inglis Drever, Kauto Star, Monets Garden, Exotic Dancer, Celestial Halo, Albertas Run, Tidal Bay, Nenuphar Collonges, Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, Our Vic, Captain Cee Bee

Particularly interesting will be the return of Kauto Star who holds entries in the Totesport Bowl and the Melling Chase.

The Totesport Bowl would see him potentially matched against old foes Exotic Dancer and Monets Garden (also entered in both races). Also amongst that race’s entries are Our Vic, Aces Four, Gungadu and Turko.

The Melling Chase on the Friday also looks mouth-watering. Along with the doubly entered Kauto Star, Monets Garden and Our Vic we have Champion Chase winner Master Minded, former Champion Chaser Voy Por Ustedes and Arkle Chase winner Tidal Bay. If we end up with 50% of that field it will be a sight to see.

Who are you particularly looking forward to seeing in the supporting races at Aintree? Is there one horse who you have been waiting to back at this meeting?

A horse I think will win soon is Boychuk from the Philip Hobbs yard. I note he is entered in a handicap at Aintree and I will be having a look at the race closer to the time. He ran an eye-catching race at Cheltenham but perhaps a tough jumping track like Aintree might not be the best place for him to exploit what looks like is becoming a decent handicap mark. I think he might register a win before the end of the season.

Let us know if there is one horse you will be backing over the three day Aintree Festival.

Posted in Aintree 2008 | 4 Comments »

Grand National 2008 

It was reported today by Clerk Of The Course, Andrew Tulloch, that going on both courses at Aintree was now ‘on the easy side of good’.

More rain is expected on Friday and Saturday but Tulloch was reportedly very happy with the state of the course.

Are we looking at the possibility of a soft ground Grand National? How would this affect your selections? Will you be praying for more rain or hoping the sun comes out?

Are there any budding Michael Fish’s out there who can give us an insight into what to expect in the next week or so?

Let’s us have all your Grand National ground and weather related comments on this page please.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 3 Comments »

Earlier in the week we looked at the Grand National Form of Comply Or Die. Today it is the turn of former Irish National winner, Point Barrow.

Point Barrow

Firstly, I must state a bias here. I have backed Point Barrow but I’m very worried about my bet.
I like to try and be open minded about horses who have yet to prove their stamina but feel much happier about parting with cash when the horse in question has proved they can stay at least 3½ miles and preferably further. So, Point Barrow seemed ideal.
I also particularly like the Irish National as a trial for the Aintree version. Wins for Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde as well as a big run from the 2001 Irish National winner David’s Lad in Bindaree’s year and of course Papillon also finished runner up to Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse in 1998. So, it appears that Fairyhouse’s stamina based test, aligned to its very stiff fences, make it a great prep race for Aintree itself.
Consequently, Point Barrow looked taylor-made to me when winning the Irish race in 2006. A win in the Pierse Chase in early 2007 further increased my confidence but we all know that things haven’t quite worked out since then.
I was prepared to forgive the first fence fall in last year’s National as just over exuberance and decided to back him again for this year’s big race after a very encouraging run at Gowran Park in January 08. The comment in the Racing Post the next day ‘kept on without threatening’ and this was just the kind of thing I wanted to see. It appeared that a softly softly approach was being taken. Excellent.
However, the next two runs have worried me enormously. It can be argued that the season is being geared completely to Aintree so the outcome of prep races could be misleading but the way he went from cruising to struggling at Haydock was, for me, very worrying. Also, the suggestion that he gurgled after Down Royal brings into question if he may have a slight wind problem? If that is the case it has to be very doubtful he will win a Grand National.

Topspeed and Blinkers

I’m less concerned about some of the other potential negatives brought up on other threads such as the low Topspeed figure and blinkers situation.
Topspeed is a good indication of class but this horse is an Irish National and Pierse Chase winner so I wouldn’t have thought there would be too many worries on that score. Blinkers? Yes, could be a concern as there does seem a smaller percentage of National winners than in normal races with headgear but I’m not sure it would be a strong enough argument for me NOT to back something I fancy. If I believe something is the most likely winner I’m not going to not back it because of a trend, much as I like using them. Form analysis first, trends as a back up – not the other way round? Otherwise horses like Katchit, Captain Cee Bee, Inglis Drever, Albertas Run etc etc would never have won at Cheltenham? Obviously I didn’t back all of those but I did fancy Katchit and everyone kept telling me a five year old wasn’t going to win a Champion Hurdle – it would have hurt me a lot more not to have backed my judgement and watched it win than back a loser. Something to debate on another thread maybe??!!

A much bigger concern for me than the blinkers issue with Point Barrow is if he is 100% likely to give his true running at Aintree. If he does then I think he is the one to beat but if there is any question mark about his breathing then I doubt he will be involved in the finish.

Are you a Point Barrow fan? Any fancy prices been availed of Pat Hughes’ chaser? Anyone read anything I might have missed about the horse’s breathing?

Give us your thoughts on this thread on all things Point Barrow related.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 8 Comments »

Punters the length of the country will be scanning the Grand National Odds for the likely winner and they will be using a wide range methods to come up with their selection.

This blog has hopefully helped to bring together some informed opinion for the form students but it could also, hopefully, be the first port of call for a novice or fun punter looking for that first horseracing adrenalin rush that the Grand National is famous for.

Each-way thieves?

Many will like the look of an each-way bet on an outsider. But which one?

Since 2000 (apart from on one occasion) at least one horse has won or been placed at odds of 33/1 or bigger. In light of this, perhaps it would be a good idea if some of the regulars from the blog could give an idea of an outsider (33/1 or bigger please) likely to offer a good run at big price odds.

I’ll get the ball rolling with a couple at larger odds that I like the look of and hopefully we can get a shortlist of outsiders that value seekers and first time punters alike can refer to.

BACKBEAT

I remember being impressed by this horse when he finished second in a handicap at Huntingdon in October 2005, giving weight to subsequent Scottish National winner Run For Paddy. His jumping and tenacity really impressed me that day and although, as with any flamboyant jumper, there can be a risk of mistakes, when he gets it right he really is a joy to watch. A series of injuries meant it was two and half years before Backbeat was able to show his true form again when putting in another great display to see off course specialist Erics Charm at Sandown in January of this year.
I know it would be easy to pick holes in his form but at a big price he has stamina in his pedigree (out of a Deep Run mare), wins on good and good to soft ground and is an exuberant jumper who likes to be up with the pace – I think punters could get an exciting run for their money with Backbeat. He is currently available at 50/1 with Blue Square.

JOAACI

I’m a bit surprised that this horse has seemingly been overlooked but that could be due to the connections having the more obviously fanciable Comply Or Die and Over The Creek in the National but if this horse is left in I think he could surprise a few people.

He had a meteroric rise up the weights as a five year old after arriving at the Pipe yard fresh from winning a point to point in Ireland. He then rocketed up the ratings from 112 to 152 in less than a year and has spent the last couple of seasons paying for his successes.
However, he has winning form from 2006 and placed form on two separate occasions in 2007 off a mark of 143 and he is asked to race from that mark here in the National. Martin Pipe was quoted in 2006 as saying that ‘he might make a National horse one day, he is still only a baby’.
Undoubtedly, he hasn’t lived up to his initial hype and his stamina is in question as is his attitude when faced with a test such as this but given he has form at this mark (albeit at a much lower level) he looks worth including in my outsiders portfolio at 66/1 with with William Hill.

More obvious ‘outsiders’ such as Kelami, DArgent and Naunton Brook have been mentioned positively on other threads – give us the reasoning behind why we should be investing on them instead.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 30 Comments »

Grand National Runners - Did the Irish National come too close to Aintree for these horses?

Alexander Taipan, Royal County Star, Homer Wells and Cool Running

All of the above could potentially make the cut for the Grand National but how likely are they to turn up at Aintree after running at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f just twelve days before the Grand National? How did they run at Fairyhouse? Have any of them enhanced their Aintree chances if they do make the journey?

Alexander Taipan

Suffered a horrific fall midway through the race - . (Unfortunately Alexander Taipan’s injuries were fatal  - commiserations to all concerned - Admin)

Royal County Star

The ante-post gamble of the race travelled like the winner for nearly the whole way but found very little over the last two fences. This must seriously bring into question his stamina at extreme distances, although he could improve for really good or good to firm ground. Even so, hard to see him as an Aintree National winner after this performance.

Homer Wells

Was beaten a long way from home and this was the latest in a serious of disappointing efforts. Very difficult to see how connections would want to take in Aintree on the back of such a dismal display.

Cool Running

Although he was Pulled Up, did not run that badly given he has been off the track since October and probably needed this race. Could be the horse most likely to turn up at Aintree (if he makes the cut at 10-6) and connections will be hoping for good or good to firm going.

The other Grand National entries such as Flintoff and Newbay Prop who ran here are unlikely to make the cut for the big race.

One other likely Grand National runner today when Hi Cloy finished runner-up in a 3 mile Hurdle . Connections will have been well satisfied with that but he has a mountain to climb at Aintree under his massive burden of 11 stone 12 lbs.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 1 Comment »

Between now and the day of the big race we will try and analyse the Grand National Form chance of some of the major players in greater depth.

Comply Or Die.

I can fully understand the attractiveness of Comply Or Die for the National at some of the fancier prices that some of the shrewdies on our forum have availed themselves of but I’m not sure that 12 or 14/1 makes much appeal, even for a horse with confirmed stamina.

Stamina he undoubtedly has but there must be some question marks about the chances of him consistently repeating his positive performances over a longer trip. The facts show five attempts at 28 furlongs or further and form figures of: P, 6th, P, P, 1st

Undoubtedly there were excuses for the poor runs but inconsistency must be a worry.

Eider Chase

According the stats that I can find going back to 1989 no winner of the Eider Chase has gone on to contend the Grand National in that same season. However, eight placed horses from the Newcastle marathon have gone on to try their luck at Aintree in the same year and have finished as follows: 6th, 9th, UR, 7th, 3rd, 5th, PU, PU.

Only two of the Eider placed horses were under 20/1 when lining up in the Grand National and both got round finishing 9th and 3rd respectively. This could indicate that whilst Eider horses undoubtedly have the stamina required for the Grand National perhaps the February date of the Newcastle race does not leave enough time for horses to fully get over the exertions of a four mile race and then to head to Aintree with a winning chance?

These exertions may be particularly relevant in the case of Comply Or Die. Off for nearly two years before returning to the course in October 2007, he has had a couple of hard races since December with the defeat behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock and the victory in the Eider. I am always concerned about just how fragile a horse with a history of injury problems may be in the future? Granted, one who can win so impressively over four miles with nearly twelve stone on his back gives every indication of being 100% recovered but his ability to recover quickly from a hard race MAY be more under question.

I can also not forget that Timmy Murphy, when interviewed on tv after the Eider, commented something along the lines that ‘it did not ride like a great race’ – so perhaps whilst it was an impressive weight carrying performance there might not have been a great strength in depth to the race?

The positive angle to Comply Or Die is that he could be a much better horse than he is currently handicapped. His two narrow defeats by Trabolgan in the Sun Alliance Chase and Hennessy might suggest a horse who should have over 11 stone on his back in the National. In a novice chase in Oct 04 he received 5lb from Ollie Magern and got beat 2 and half lengths. If both turn up in the National, Comply Or Die will receive 1st 2lb from the Twiston-Davies horse. This suggests that the Pipe horse still has some scope to move up the handicap.
At 25/1 or bigger Comply Or Die looks a great addition to your Ante-Post National bets. However, for me, the value has now evaporated and he should be given the swerve, especially if the price continues to contract.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 11 Comments »

Grand National Runners: Update

Keith Reveley’s nine year old chaser, Ungaro, is unlikely to take his place in the Aintree Grand National, it was reported today.

The Robert Ogden owned former winner of the Feltham Novice Chase is thought more likely to run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown next month rather than take up his entry at Liverpool.

Reveley was reported as saying: “I haven’t had it confirmed yet, but as far as I know it is the Sandown race we are heading for.”

Ungaro is currently a best priced 40/1 with Skybet for the Grand National

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This is the second part of our look at runners in the 2008 Grand National and how they performed at the Cheltenham Festival:

Over The Creek
I’ve seen Over The Creek touted in a few places (including on this site) as a horse to consider for the National this year but I really could not go along with this way of thinking.
For me, twice in his last three runs his stamina has given out at extreme distances and I can’t see why this should be any different in the Grand National. He was swinging away on the bridle jumping the second last in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but found much less than looked likely, in the end finishing seven lengths behind Alan King’s Old Benny.
Previously, he looked to lack the stamina of the winner and runner up in the Welsh National and given the likely faster pace he will encounter in the National itself, I can’t see him being anywhere near the leading contenders at the Elbow.

Knowhere
Connections must be quite disappointed by the jumping display put up by Knowhere in the Gold Cup. They should be applauded for taking on the big boys when it might have been easier to go for the Ryanair but he made a series of mistakes and it’s very hard to get enthusiastic about his chances at Aintree on the back of such a poor round of jumping, especially when being asked to carry such a massive weight.

Joe’s Edge
Joe’s Edge was beaten a long way in tenth place in the Kim Muir but I’m not sure this tells the whole story. Nina Carberry was pretty tender on the Ferdy Murphy trained eleven year old and it may be that this was a confidence booster after unseating Keith Mercer at Doncaster the time before.
Joe’s Edge has a pretty dismal record in the National with a distant seventh place in 2006 (admittedly on ground probably too soft for him) and pulled up when co-favourite last year. It could well be that Murphy is lining this horse up for another gamble and given the stable’s record in recent years in big races, if he makes the cut, he is definitely worthy of consideration.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 1 Comment »

The latest set of entries for the Aintree Grand National was relaeased today with a total of ten horses being withdrawn. They are:

Celestial Gold, Monkerhostin, Rule Supreme, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Boychuk, Kilbeggan Blade, Bob Bob Bobbin, Captain Corelli and Brooklyn Breeze.

With the withdrawl of Celestial Gold, Hi Cloy and Hedgehunter are now joint top weights on 11 stone 12 pounds.

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