Where it all began?

Most people’s earliest gambling memory will be of the Grand National.

Mine was of an annual 10p each way on a horse called The Pilgarlic. I seem to remember that he made the frame on a couple of occasions but never quite got his head in front. It became a family joke that I would be backing ‘that horse with the funny name’. Whatever happened it got me hooked and I’m pleased that it did.

Backing winners used to be easy!

The years have come and gone and the stakes have increased (marginally!) and I have fond (financial and otherwise) of Seagram and Party Politics but mostly of Last Suspect.

I was a Tim Forster fan back in the 80’s and I managed to convince myself that the Duchess of Westminster’s horse wasn’t the screwball that everyone else seemed to think he was. I can’t describe the feeling of backing a 50/1 Grand National winner but to a relatively young and inexperienced punter it was like gold dust.

Unfortunately finding winners since haven’t been quite as easy!

Tell us about your favourite Grand National Horses

Who are your favourite Grand National horses? Did you manage a nice win on your favourite or was there one that got away? Or perhaps it was just a horse you enjoyed watching jumping the big fences?

Let us know your thoughts.

By the way, does anyone know how many times The Pilgarlic ran in the National and when?

Posted in Grand National History | 17 Comments »

Its been mentioned on several threads on this blog already that you should simply put a line through all French breds running in the Grand National. Why? Well the argument is that one hasn’t won since 1909.

But I would urge you not to be so hasty. French breds do stay!

Since 1994 French breds have filled six places in the Grand National itself as well as winning and placing in many other nationals.

In the same time frame French breds have been responsible for 4 winners and 10 places in the Scottish and Welsh nationals.

In 2007 alone French breds filled the first two places in the Irish and Welsh Nationals and the runner up spot in the Scottish National.

Are you telling me that L’Aventure, Gingembre and Halcon Genelardais don’t stay? What about Clan Royal and Blowing Wind? Royal Auclair? Mely Moss, Encore En Peu? Miko De Beauchene?

There are some great trends which do make sense when trying to narrow down the Grand National runners but the French bred exclusion theory should be treated with caution.

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No Beef?

Beef Or Salmon looks set to have his target changed from the Grand National to the Irish alternative at Fairyhouse after connections were disappointed at being allocated the welter burden of 11st 12lb.

Michael Hourigan’s 12 year old would have been asked to shoulder top weight and that did look a very tall order at this stage in his illustrious career.

Who will be top weight now?

Beef Or Salmon’s non-particpation would mean joint top weights would fall to Celestial Gold and Turpin Green and a slight rise in the weights. This would probably mean good news to those of us compiling short lists of horses that meet the various criteria on trends etc as the weights going up will pull a couple more horses over the 11stone barrier (or whatever cut off point you are using).

Let us know if Beef Or Salmon’s likely defection will make a difference to your shortlists and how you may or may not have to redefine your selection criteria.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 2 Comments »

Last Saturday saw a large number of Grand National entrants having one of their last runs before the big race in April.

Tear up your Ante-Post tickets?

However, anyone holding an ante -post voucher for most of the horses sighted at the weekend must be wishing they could have a refund as the displays of horses to the front of the betting such as the likes of Point Barrow, Bewleys Berry, Butler’s Cabin and Preacher Boy were disappointing to say the least.

I realise for some of these horses its all about Aintree and everything else is irrelevant but can we really accept poor performances and still feel positive about our long range selections?

More negatives than positives at Haydock

Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry ran in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock, a race that was littered with possible runners in the big race at Aintree. Of those likely to run perhaps only D’Argent has run an encouraging race with the other entrants either not endorsing their claims (Captain Corelli, Irish Raptor) or running so badly that this must be seen as a negative (Idle Talk, Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry).

Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry were, in my opinion, particularly disappointing. Point Barrow has been given a tender start to the season in an attempt to reduce his handicap mark and he appeared to make suggestions of returning to his best form when finishing fourth at Gowran Park in January. With the handicap mark secured it seems odd to come over to England for a big race if the idea is just for a blow out and he appeared to be travelling well for much of the race only to run out of steam in the last third of the race. This must be a big worry for his Aintree supporters.

Bewleys Berry was only having his second run of the season and has run poorly at Haydock before so perhaps his supporters can take some heart from that, especially as he went on to run well in the National after a poor run in this race last year. Nevertheless, I don’t like to see horses running THAT badly before a big race and I would have to think very carefully before parting with any cash on these (or any of the other poor performers) prior to the National.

Butler’s Cabin still to hit form

One other horse’s performance struck me as noteworthy over the weekend – Butler’s Cabin just doesn’t appear to be the same horse as last year at the moment. I realise the track may not have suited him at Wincanton but he was being pushed and shoved from a very long way out and I just wonder if he has lost some of his enthusiasm. He may just need a bit of sun on his back to find his form but I couldn’t touch him for the National in his current form.

Current Form - What is your view?

It made me consider the relevance of current form with a view to winning the National? How important is it to you that your selection has some good recent form prior to running in the big race? Or do you prefer a softly, softly approach knowing that the form is being saved for the big day?

I’ll be looking at how the last 10 winner’s recent form affected their chances and what sort of break they had before their win at Aintree to see if we can glean any info from this viewpoint next week but in the meantime let me know how you feel about current form and how much it affects your selections for the Grand National.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 4 Comments »

Thanks to all of you who have contributed to the GN Weights thread and suggested ideas as to how we can cut the runners down.

Now that there are a few of us on the site I thought it would be nice to try and work together to see if we can form a small field from which the 2008 GN Winner should come from.

I’ll kick off with some pretty safe trends and then if we agree on some more we can narrow it down further.

On the main Grand National Guide Trends Page it shows that each of the last ten winners had these stats in common and if you look back further you will see that many more winners had the same common stats.

8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
At this stage we dont know the last 40 runners of course but my opinion is that those below 10st 5lb might struggle to get in the race. I certainly wouldnt want to be backing any below 10st 5lb right now anyway… so if we agree then we will call that the cut off point?

Ok the above basic trends narrow down the 150 entries to just 29. NB Ive included a couple on 9 runs as they are due to have prep runs

So I make the 29…
Rule Surpeme, Billyvodden, Knight Legend, Simon, Ungaro, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Vodka Bleu, L’Ami, Bewleys Berry, McKelvey, Point Barrow, Sir Rembrandt, Cornish Rebel, D’Argent, Baily Breeze, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Parsons Legacy, Royal Auclair, Royal County Star, Comply or Die, Kelami, Black Apalachi, Homer Wells, Philson Run,

Have I missed any out which you wouldnt want to exclude?

What next?

Ive heard shouts for experience over the GN fences (but just 6 of last winners 10 meet that criteria)

Exclude all french breds? (are you telling me that L’Ami and Kelami dont stay?)

Several recent winners have won or finished closed in another “national” (is that stat strong enough?)

Any others?

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 563 Comments »

The announcement of the Grand National weights has seen the usual clamour for value start in earnest but some of the gambles seem a little off beam to me.

Beef Or Salmon? Neither, thanks!

Strangest of all is the news that a couple of firms indicate that there has been money for top weight Beef Or Salmon. Surely 11st 12lb at 12 years old is a massive ask? As good a horse as he has been, I’m not sure the National would have ever been his ‘cup of tea’. I think the owner of that ante post wager can tear it up pretty quickly.

Bizarre to also see Character Building being backed when his trainer stated this week that the Irish National was the more likely target? Now, trainers do change their minds (!) but it seems a dangerous game to be backing the horse at this stage.

Point Barrow backed
I’m quite pleased to see Point Barrow being cut into 20/1 with most firms as the 25/1 voucher has pride of place in my Ante Post collection. 10st 10lb seems very fair……

Not For Me

Not sure I’d fancy getting involved with Mr Pointment with 11-8. That looks a tad harsh.

The worst price post-weights I’ve seen is 33/1 with Coral about Wonderkid. Not sure how they expect him to get in off 8st 11lbs with 148 above him? I think they would be quite safe at three times that price!

What about you?

Who stands out for you now that the weights have been announced? Who do you think has been treated harshly? Let us know your ideas.

Posted in Grand National 2008 | 17 Comments »

Over rated? Steady on…..

How can I say such a thing?

He won three Grand Nationals and was runner up on two further occasions so Red Rum was undoubtedly a class act around Aintree but does he deserve to be revered almost as a national (no pun intended) treasure?

I know all about the weight carrying performances and the bigger fences and all that and the fact that no horse has been able to win two Nationals since, let alone three.

What did he beat?

But I just wonder if, just maybe, the standard of opposition in the final two of his wins was not up to the ultra competitive standards we see today?

I say final two wins as, in my opinion, the best horse (at the weights) to compete in the National may be a horse who has never won it. By this I mean Crisp.

History should be changed!

If we are to give Red Rum his hero like status then the horse who has given him 23lb *(yes, that’s right a whopping 23lb*!!!) and very, very nearly beat him must be the best horse to compete in the National?

Crisp was an Australian champion who came to Britain and won our Champion Chase, breaking track records with slick, accurate jumping. The style of his performance in the 1973 National (until the very last few strides) is one of the most stunning displays of jumping I’ve ever seen.

I think if racing history could be rewritten, Crisp should win that National.

What do you think? Are you one of the millions of Red Rum fans who believe he is the best horse ever to run at Aintree? Or do you have another favourite who you think deserves that title?

Let us know what you think.

*edited

Posted in Grand National History | 10 Comments »

The entries for the Grand National have seen many trainers come out in positive terms with regards to their Aintree ambitions but a couple of the well fancied runners could be giving the big race a swerve.

 Character Building, trained by John Quinn, is as short as 20/1 with some bookmakers but is more likely to head for Fairyhouse and the Irish National according to his trainer. The Aintree race is still a consideration but he may wait another year.

Also probably heading for the Irish National rather than Aintree is Royal County Star, a 25/1 shot with most bookmakers. Tony Martin reported this week that his horse has just come back after a break but would more than likely not run at Aintree.

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